Gold Week Ahead Nov 9–13, 2026: CPI Without a Yearly Rate, PPI and a Bond-Market Holiday

The short version: gold enters the week of 9 to 13 November about 5% higher than a week ago, but with the Fed hike debate back on. Two inflation reports decide most of the week: October CPI on Tuesday 10 November and October PPI on Friday 13 November, both at 8:30 am New York, which is 13:30 GMT and 19:00 IST. In between, Wednesday’s Veterans Day closes the US bond market.

This is an outlook, not a forecast. It sets out what is scheduled, what the last readings were, where this week’s levels are and how gold might respond, using if/then language throughout. The gold cheat sheet has the printable one-page version of the week, and last week’s preview is here if you want to compare.

Where gold starts the week

Last week was gold’s strongest since August. In the site’s own spot gold data, the Friday close went from $3,876.4 on 30 October to $4,072.1 on 6 November, a gain of $195.7 or about 5.0%. CNBC also put spot up 4.8% for the week. In COMEX futures, the numbers we use for this week’s levels:

The week in four lines:

• Monday to Wednesday: gold climbed back from the one-year low as oil fell sharply on hopes of a US-Iran deal and the midterm results pushed the dollar down.
• Thursday: spot touched about $4,148, its highest since 20 October, while the S&P 500 fell 4.36% in its worst day since April 2025, Kitco reported. December hike odds fell to roughly 66 to 69%.
• Friday: the October jobs report showed 165,000 jobs, almost three times the forecast, with unemployment at 4.1% and wages up 0.4% in the month (BLS). The dollar index rose to about 102.2, the 10-year yield to about 4.86% and gold fell back to around $4,065.
• Saturday: China’s central bank reported a 24th straight month of gold buying, adding about 25.8 tonnes in October.

After the jobs data, CME FedWatch readings reported by CNBC, Fox Business and others put the chance of a December 9 hike at roughly 75 to 79%, up from the high 60s on Thursday. The Fed’s target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after the 28 October hold. That number, the hike probability, is what this week’s inflation data can move. Our December Fed hike odds page explains why it matters so much for gold.

The calendar in six time zones

Also this week: India’s October CPI on Thursday 12 November, according to MoSPI’s September release, and the US Monthly Treasury Statement (the federal budget), which Treasury’s fiscal data site expects on 12 November. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks several times, Governor Barr on Thursday and Vice Chair Jefferson late on Friday, per the Fed’s November calendar.

Sources for the dates: the BLS November 2026 release schedule, Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement of 4 November (auction sizes and dates), SIFMA’s Veterans Day recommendation, the ONS release calendar and the Federal Reserve’s November events page. The weekly jobless claims slot is the Labor Department’s usual Thursday 8:30 am release. Our economic calendar shows every row in your own time zone.

What to watch in each event

Tuesday: October CPI, with a twist

The September report, published on 14 October, showed headline CPI up 0.6% in the month and 3.7% over 12 months, and core CPI (without food and energy) up 0.3% and 2.6%, according to the BLS. On that day, 14 October, gold’s release hour moved −$41.6 with a $72.7 range in our COMEX futures data.

This time there is an important change. The BLS has said it will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are not available. Most October 2025 indexes were never published because of the 2025 government shutdown. In plain words: the familiar “inflation rate” headline will mostly be missing, and the market will judge the report on the month-on-month numbers.

Why that matters for traders:

• Any website or calendar that shows a “forecast” for October’s yearly CPI may be wrong, because the BLS will not publish that number for most indexes.
• Monthly numbers are small (0.2%, 0.3%) and a 0.1-point miss can still move gold a lot.
• The first headlines may be confused. That is a reason to wait for the first one-hour candle to close.

Energy is the swing factor. Brent crude was heading for a weekly drop of about 12% on Friday morning, on hopes of a US-Iran deal (FinanceFeeds, citing Oilprice.com data), and AAA’s national average petrol price fell to $4.10 a gallon on 5 November from $4.37 a month earlier. September’s CPI was pushed up by petrol, which rose 9.1% in the month. If October’s energy prices fell, the headline monthly figure could cool even if core does not. Core is what the Fed watches more closely for the trend.

Our CPI time today page has the release in 25 cities, and the CPI event page shows gold’s last 12 CPI hours. The median release-hour range in that table is about $41, the largest of the regular US reports.

Tuesday to Thursday: three Treasury auctions

Treasury sells $58bn of 3-year notes on Monday, $42bn of 10-year notes on Tuesday and $25bn of 30-year bonds on Thursday, all at 1:00 pm New York (18:00 GMT), according to its refunding statement. Auctions are not usually big events for gold, but a weak one, where buyers demand a higher yield than expected, can push yields up in the US afternoon. The 10-year auction falls on CPI day, so yields may already be moving.

Wednesday: Veterans Day

SIFMA recommends a full close for US-dollar bond markets in the US, the UK and Japan on Wednesday 11 November. Stocks stay open and gold trades as usual, but with the Treasury market shut, one of the main drivers of gold is switched off for a day. Expect quieter trade, and be careful with stops: thin markets can produce sudden spikes on small news.

Thursday: UK GDP, India CPI, jobless claims

The UK’s first estimate of third-quarter GDP comes out at 07:00 GMT, according to the ONS. It mainly moves the pound. With the Bank of England having just raised rates to 4% on 5 November, a weak number could knock sterling and lift the dollar index slightly. India’s CPI matters for readers in India mostly through the rupee and the Reserve Bank’s next steps; September’s rate was 5.54%, according to MoSPI. The last US weekly jobless claims report showed 189,000 initial claims for the week ending 31 October, according to the Labor Department.

Friday: October PPI

September’s producer price index jumped 1.3% in the month and 6.3% over 12 months, the BLS said, and the measure excluding foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% and 5.0%. Like CPI, the October PPI lands at 13:30 GMT, this time on a Friday, hours before the weekly close. Our PPI time today page has the details and gold’s last 12 PPI hours.

The levels on the weekly map

These are mechanical levels calculated from last week’s COMEX futures high ($4,155.8), low ($3,889.0) and close ($4,074.9), using the same classic and Fibonacci pivot formulas as our forecast page. Spot gold trades a few dollars below futures (about $3 at Friday’s close), so the cheat sheet shows the spot version once it is published for the week.

The statistical band is Friday’s close plus and minus half of the 12-week typical weekly range, which was $203.1. It is a guide to a normal week’s size, not a limit.

Three areas stand out:

• $4,142 to $4,156 above: the Fibonacci R1 and last week’s high, which was also the highest price since 20 October.
• $4,040 to $4,081 around the price: the pivot, Friday’s close and the 20-day average all sit within about $40 of each other. Friday’s close was just below the 20-day average.
• $3,924 to $3,974 below: the band bottom, Fibonacci S1 and S1, with the round $4,000 just above.

If you are new to these levels, our pivot points glossary entry explains how traders use them, and the chart of the day shows a different concept on real gold bars every weekday.

If/then scenarios for the week

None of these says where gold will end the week. They describe which levels come next if a condition is met.

What the analysts are saying

Kitco’s weekly survey, published on 6 November, shows how split views are. Among 13 Wall Street analysts, 4 expected gold to rise next week, 5 expected it to fall and 4 expected it to trade sideways. In the online poll of 212 retail participants, 68% expected higher prices, 15% lower and 18% sideways. A week earlier, 10 of 16 Wall Street analysts had been bearish.

Surveys like this are a mood check, not a guide. When most retail voters lean one way after a big up week, it mainly tells you that many traders may already be positioned for it.

Practical points for the week

• Read the monthly CPI numbers, not the yearly ones. For October, most 12-month rates will not be published.
• Mark Tuesday and Friday at 13:30 GMT (19:00 IST). Spreads often widen around the release; see why the gold spread widens on news.
• Treat Wednesday as a thin day. No US Treasury market means less liquidity behind gold.
• Cut size when the stop has to be wider. With a 14-day average range of $84, a $30 stop is not generous on a CPI day. The position size calculator does the maths.
• Check your own mind, not just the chart. After a 5% week it is easy to chase. The trading psychology hub has a two-minute tilt check and a pre-trade checklist.
• Follow the daily story. The XAUUSD news hub publishes the day’s key gold stories every day except Sunday, and the markets board shows gold next to the dollar, yields and oil.

Plan the week together

A two-report inflation week is easier with company. In the XAUUSD Global community, members post their plan on Sunday, share the numbers as each release lands and review what the chart did afterwards. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. The community is free during early access. If paid plans ever come, members will be told first and nothing is charged automatically. Get free early access.

Sources

• BLS: November 2026 release schedule (CPI 10 November, PPI 13 November, 8:30 am; Veterans Day 11 November)
• BLS: 2025 government shutdown impact on CPI, FAQ (no 12-month changes for October 2026 where October 2025 data are missing)
• BLS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (+0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core +0.3%, 2.6%)
• BLS: Producer Price Index, September 2026 (+1.3% m/m, 6.3% y/y)
• BLS: Employment Situation, October 2026 (165,000 jobs, 4.1% unemployment)
• US Treasury: Quarterly refunding statement, 4 November 2026 (3-, 10- and 30-year auctions)
• SIFMA: Veterans Day 2026 market close recommendation
• Federal Reserve: November 2026 calendar (speakers; releases moved from 11 to 12 November)
• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 (3.75% to 4.00%)
• ONS: GDP first quarterly estimate, July to September 2026 (12 November, 07:00)
• MoSPI: CPI press release for September 2026 (PDF) (5.54%; October release 12 November)
• US Treasury Fiscal Data: Monthly Treasury Statement
• US Department of Labor: Weekly claims (PDF) (189,000 initial claims)
• Kitco: Weekly gold survey, 6 November 2026
• Kitco: Gold holds gains as Wall Street plunges, 5 November 2026
• CNBC: Gold eases after payrolls, 6 November 2026 (spot up 4.8% on the week)
• Investing.com: Gold falls as jobs report boosts hike bets (dollar index about 102.2)
• AAA: National average gas price, 5 November 2026
• FinanceFeeds: Brent crude oil price, 6 November 2026
• Gold prices, ranges and levels: Yahoo Finance daily data for COMEX gold futures (GC=F), the site’s spot closes and our own pivot calculations

Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.

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