Gold correlations: dollar, yields, stocks, Bitcoin and silver
How closely gold has been moving with the US dollar, real and nominal yields, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and silver over the last 30, 90 and 250 days, with rolling charts. Computed from public data, refreshed automatically.
strong |r| > 0.8moderate 0.5–0.8weak 0.2–0.5independent < 0.2+ moves together · − moves opposite
What it means right now. Over the last 90 trading days gold has been leaning against the dollar (−0.48), roughly independent of nominal yields (−0.10), loosely following stocks (+0.33), moving with Bitcoin (+0.54) and moving closely with silver (+0.86). Its tightest link is with silver (+0.86) and its loosest with nominal yields (−0.10). On weekly data, gold's correlation with the 10-year real yield is −0.24 (weak). More recently, the link with the dollar has loosened (−0.26 over 30 days against −0.48 over 90) and the link with Bitcoin has loosened (+0.31 over 30 days against +0.54 over 90). This describes recent price behaviour. It is not a forecast and not a signal.
Gold vs US dollar index (DXY) (rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns)
Gold vs 10-year real yield (TIPS) (rolling 13-week correlation, weekly data)
Gold vs 10-year Treasury yield (rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns)
Gold vs S&P 500 (rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns)
Gold vs Bitcoin (rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns)
Gold vs silver (rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns)
Correlation and beta by window (Pearson r of gold's returns; last close 2026-10-23)
| Asset | 30 days | 90 days | 250 days | Beta (90 days) | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar index (DXY) | −0.26 | −0.48 | −0.37 | −2.17 | daily log returns |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | — | −0.24 | −0.39 | −8.5% per 1 pt | weekly: 13 and 52 weeks |
| 10-year Treasury yield | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −2.9% per 1 pt | daily, yield in pct points |
| S&P 500 | +0.43 | +0.33 | +0.31 | +0.64 | daily log returns |
| Bitcoin | +0.31 | +0.54 | +0.21 | +0.33 | daily log returns |
| silver | +0.85 | +0.86 | +0.82 | +0.47 | daily log returns |
Beta: gold's % move per 1% move in the asset (per one percentage point for the two yield rows), over 90 days. Windows count aligned trading days, so holidays on either market are skipped.
Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes (COMEX gold GC=F and silver SI=F, ^GSPC, BTC-USD, DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX); FRED 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10), weekly. Data updated . Updates automatically several times a day.
What this page measures
Each number on this page is a Pearson correlation between gold's daily percentage change (strictly, its log return) and the daily change of another market, over a fixed window of trading days. It runs from −1 (the two always move in opposite directions) through 0 (no relationship) to +1 (they always move together). We show three windows because they answer different questions: 30 days is what is happening this month, 90 days is the regime most swing traders care about, and 250 days is roughly a trading year. The rolling charts replay the 90-day figure week by week so you can see how often it changes.
We use returns, not price levels. Correlating two rising price series almost always produces a number near +1 that means nothing. Returns strip out the trend and leave the day-to-day co-movement, which is the part a trader can use. For the two yield series we use the change in percentage points rather than a percentage of the yield, because a yield near zero would make percentage changes explode.
The thresholds we use are deliberately plain: below 0.2 we call the two markets independent, 0.2 to 0.5 weak, 0.5 to 0.8 moderate and above 0.8 strong. Most of gold's relationships live in the weak-to-moderate band most of the time. Anyone who tells you gold "always" does something when the dollar moves has not looked at a rolling chart.
Why gold tracks real yields and the dollar
Gold pays no interest and no dividend. The cost of holding it is the income you give up elsewhere, and the cleanest measure of that income is the real yield: the yield on a Treasury inflation-protected bond, which is what you earn after inflation with almost no credit risk. When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of gold rises and the metal tends to struggle; when they fall, or go negative, holding a zero-yield asset that cannot be printed looks attractive. That is why the correlation with real yields is usually negative, and why the weekly figure above (−0.24) is the one professional desks quote most often. The real yields and dollar tracker shows the two price series side by side.
The dollar link is more mechanical. Gold is priced in US dollars worldwide, so when the dollar strengthens against other currencies, gold becomes more expensive for a buyer in euros, rupees or yuan, and demand softens at the margin. A weaker dollar does the opposite. The dollar index also moves with US rate expectations, so part of the dollar correlation is really the real-yield story wearing a different coat. The current 90-day reading against DXY is −0.48.
The nominal 10-year yield (^TNX) is included because it is daily and widely watched, but it mixes two things: real yields and inflation expectations. Gold dislikes the first and tends to like the second, which is why the nominal-yield correlation is often weaker and less stable than the real-yield one.
Stocks, Bitcoin and silver
Silver is gold's closest relative. Both are monetary metals traded by the same funds, so the correlation is usually the highest on the page (currently +0.86). Silver's industrial demand and thinner market make it the more volatile of the two, which is what the gold/silver ratio tracks. Stocks are the diversifier case: over long periods the S&P 500 correlation hovers near zero, drifting positive when both are driven by easy money and briefly negative in scares. Bitcoin is the newest and least settled relationship. The "digital gold" narrative produces a positive correlation in some stretches, usually when both respond to liquidity, and nothing at all in others.
Why correlations are not stable
A correlation is an average over a window, and the market changes what it is paying attention to. In a rates-driven regime, every CPI print and Fed meeting moves yields, the dollar and gold together, and the correlations tighten. When the driver switches to central-bank buying, a geopolitical shock or physical demand from Asia, gold can rally while real yields rise and the textbook link simply breaks for months. Several periods since 2022 looked exactly like that. Windows also matter: a 30-day number is dominated by whatever happened in the last few weeks, which is why it swings far more than the 250-day figure. Finally, big single days distort short windows. One Fed-day move of 3% can pull a 30-day correlation by several tenths on its own.
The rolling charts are there to make this visible. If a line has crossed zero several times in the last two years, the relationship is not something to lean on. If it has stayed on one side for most of the period, it is a reasonable piece of background, with the emphasis on background.
How traders use correlations
- Confirmation. If you are long gold on a technical setup and the dollar is breaking down at the same time while the 90-day correlation is clearly negative, the macro tape agrees with your chart. If the dollar is breaking out instead, you are fighting a known headwind and may want a smaller size or a tighter invalidation.
- Early warning. When yields and the dollar move sharply during London or New York hours and gold has not yet reacted, the correlation tells you which direction the pressure is likely to come from. It does not tell you when.
- Hedging and exposure. A trader holding gold and silver together is not holding two positions, they are holding one and a half. The same is true of gold plus a short dollar trade. Correlation shows where risk is doubling up, and beta shows how much the hedge would need to be.
- Regime awareness. A collapse in the dollar correlation towards zero is itself information: something other than rates is driving gold, and the usual macro checklist may not apply. Read it next to the COT report and the economic calendar.
Common mistakes
- Treating correlation as causation. Gold and the dollar can both be reacting to a third thing, usually rate expectations.
- Trading a historical average as if it were today's reading. "Gold and the dollar are inversely correlated" is true on average and wrong often enough to hurt. Check the current window.
- Reading a weak correlation as a signal. A 90-day reading of −0.3 explains under a tenth of gold's daily variation. The other nine tenths is everything else.
- Using price levels instead of returns. Two trending series will always look correlated. If a chart overlay convinces you, check the return correlation before you believe it.
- Ignoring the time of day. Daily closes hide intraday behaviour. Gold's reaction to a yield spike at 08:30 New York can reverse by the close.
- Forgetting Bitcoin's weekend. Bitcoin trades on Saturday and Sunday; our alignment only uses days when both markets printed a close, so weekend crypto moves show up on Monday.
For the full story of what drives the metal read what moves gold prices, and to put a correlation idea to the test follow our backtesting guide and record the results in a trading journal.
Frequently asked questions
What does a correlation of −0.5 between gold and the dollar mean?
It means that over the window measured, days when the dollar index rose were more often than not days when gold fell, and the relationship explained about a quarter of the variation (r² = 0.25). It does not mean gold falls every time the dollar rises, and it does not say which one is causing the other. A reading of −1 would be a perfect mirror image, 0 would be no relationship at all.
Is gold negatively correlated with the stock market?
Not reliably. Over long periods the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 sits close to zero, which is exactly why gold is used as a diversifier. In calm markets both can rise together on easy money; in a liquidity crisis both can fall together for a few days as traders sell what they can. The 90-day reading on this page is currently +0.33 (weak).
Do gold and Bitcoin move together?
Sometimes, for a while. The ‘digital gold’ story shows up as a positive correlation in some months and disappears in others, and Bitcoin trades seven days a week with several times gold’s volatility. The current 90-day reading is +0.54 (moderate). Treat any link between the two as temporary unless the rolling chart shows it holding for many months.
Why is the real-yield correlation measured on weekly data?
The 10-year TIPS yield we use comes from FRED and is stored on this site as one value per week. Weekly changes give far fewer observations than daily closes, so the real-yield row uses 13 weeks for the 90-day column and 52 weeks for the 250-day column, and has no 30-day figure because six weekly points would be meaningless. The nominal 10-year yield (^TNX) is daily and fills that gap.
What is the beta column?
Beta is the slope of gold’s daily return against the other asset’s return over the last 90 trading days. A beta of −2.2 against the dollar index means that, on average, a 1% rise in DXY came with a 2.2% fall in gold. For the two yield rows, beta is shown as gold’s percentage move per one-percentage-point change in the yield. Beta tells you size; correlation tells you reliability. A large beta with a weak correlation is noise.
Where does the data come from and how often is it updated?
Daily closes of COMEX gold and silver futures, the S&P 500, Bitcoin, the ICE US dollar index and the 10-year Treasury yield come from Yahoo Finance; the 10-year TIPS real yield comes from FRED. Correlations are recomputed on every data refresh, several times a day, and the page redraws itself from the latest file when you open it. Futures closes track spot XAUUSD closely but are not identical.
Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Correlations are computed from futures and index closes and describe the past. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.