Gold data studies: Fed, NFP, CPI, elections and comparisons
What gold actually did around Fed decisions, jobs reports, CPI releases and US elections, and how it compares with stocks, property, bonds and the euro over decades. Every study shows its data, method and limits.
Most of what is written about gold and the news is opinion. These pages measure it instead. Each study lines up a public price series with a list of events or another asset and reports what happened: the size of the move, its direction, how often a pattern held and how often it failed. They answer questions such as how wide an NFP day really is, whether gold rises after midterm elections, or whether gold has beaten the S&P 500, with the sample size next to every answer.
Fed, jobs and inflation days
How gold behaved on the scheduled releases that move it most, measured release by release.
| Study and data | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| Gold after Fed decisions 14 FOMC decisions, Jan 2025 – Sep 2026 | Up on 7 decision days, down on 7; the median day-after move (1.28%) was more than twice the decision day's (0.53%). |
| Gold on NFP days 77 jobs reports, Feb 2020 – Oct 2026 | Day range a median 1.14× its 20-day average (0.92× on all days); the 8:30 am hour ran $30.1 against $17.0 normally. |
| Gold on CPI days 79 CPI releases, Feb 2020 – Oct 2026 | Daily moves close to normal (0.61% vs 0.60%), but a release hour about 1.9× normal, and the next day reversed 61% of the time. |
Elections
Gold around US elections, from 52 years of monthly data to hour-by-hour election nights.
| Study and data | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| Gold and the US midterms 13 midterms, 1974–2022 | Gold rose from November to February after 9 of 13 midterms (median +4.4%); the first session after the vote fell in 5 of the last 6. |
| Midterm election night 2026 Nov 2024 hourly; 2018 and 2022 daily | Polls close 23:00–06:00 GMT; on the last US election night every hour ran 1.4 to 5.1 times its normal range. |
Gold vs other assets
Long-run comparisons with stocks, property, bonds, currencies and other ways to trade gold.
| Study and data | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| Gold vs the S&P 500 Aug 2000 – Oct 2026 | Gold +10.8% a year vs +8.4% for the S&P 500 with dividends; weekly correlation 0.06, but gold fell in the 2020 and 2022 sell-offs. |
| Gold vs real estate Jan 1987 – Aug 2026 | After inflation gold +3.3% a year vs +1.4% for US house prices (prices only, no rent); gold's worst real fall was −65%. |
| Gold vs bonds Jul 2002 – Oct 2026 | Gold +11.3% a year vs 3.5% for Treasury funds; a +10 bp weekly rise in real yields went with about −0.5% to −0.65% in gold. |
| XAUUSD vs XAUEUR Dec 2003 – Oct 2026 | Gold +10.6% a year in dollars and +10.9% in euros; the gap each year roughly mirrors the EUR/USD move. |
| GC vs MGC vs 1-ounce gold Specs + 250 sessions to Oct 2026 | A median $95.5 daily range meant $9,550 on GC, $955 on MGC and $95.50 on the 1-ounce contract. |
| Does gold go up when stocks crash? 2008, 2020, 2022 | Why gold often falls in the first, forced-selling phase of a crash and recovers later. |
| Is gold a good inflation hedge? Since 1971 | Over decades gold has kept pace with prices, but over shorter periods the link is weak. |
| Gold vs Bitcoin Comparison | Volatility, correlation, drivers and trading hours of gold and Bitcoin side by side. |
| Gold vs silver Comparison | How XAUUSD and XAGUSD differ in volatility, value per move and drivers. |
| Spot gold vs gold futures Comparison | Why XAUUSD and COMEX gold quote different prices, and how the basis works. |
Timing, gaps and seasonality
When gold moves: by hour, weekday, weekend and month.
| Study and data | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| When does gold move most Hourly bars, 2 years | The 9–10 am New York hour is the busiest; the hour before the 5 pm break is the quietest. |
| Gold's Monday gaps 109 weekends since June 2024 | Median Monday gap $4.70, rising to $15.80 in 2026; the largest was $116.30. |
| Monthly returns heatmap Every month since 2000 | Gold's return in every calendar month, coloured by size. |
| Gold seasonality Average by calendar month | Which months have historically been stronger or weaker for gold. |
Strategies and indicators tested
Trading rules and indicator settings tested on real XAUUSD prices with costs.
| Study and data | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| 14 gold strategies tested Hourly 2 years + daily since 2015 | Most named strategies lost as mechanical rules; daily inside bars and weekly-open retests were the positive results. |
| Indicator settings tested Two years of XAUUSD data | RSI, EMA, Ichimoku, Donchian and more, each with the settings that held up and the ones that did not. |
The latest data studies
Published 30 October 2026, with data to 29 October 2026.
Gold on NFP days
How Gold Reacts on NFP Days: Every Release Since 2020 (Data)
Read the studyGold on CPI days
How Gold Reacts on CPI Days: Every US Inflation Release Since 2020 (Data)
Read the studyMidterm election night 2026
US Midterm Election Night 2026: Gold Trading Times and What to Watch
Read the studyGold vs the S&P 500
Gold vs the S&P 500: 26 Years of Returns, Drawdowns and Correlation (Data)
Read the studyGold vs real estate
Gold vs Real Estate: US House Prices and Gold Since 1987, Before and After Inflation
Read the studyGold vs bonds
Gold vs Bonds: Gold, US Treasuries and Real Yields Since 2002 (Data)
Read the studyXAUUSD vs XAUEUR
XAUUSD vs XAUEUR: Gold in Dollars vs Gold in Euros Since 2003 (Data)
Read the studyGC vs MGC vs 1-ounce gold
Gold Futures vs Micro Gold Futures: GC vs MGC vs 1-Ounce Gold Compared
Read the studyWhat the studies have in common
Size is more predictable than direction. Fed, NFP and CPI days showed no reliable direction, but release days and release hours were wider than normal far more often than ordinary days. That is something you can plan for with position size.
Links between assets change by regime. Gold's correlation with stocks swung from −0.52 to +0.61 over rolling years, and its link to real yields held week to week while the level relationship broke after 2022.
Small samples need humility. Thirteen midterms or 25 hourly releases can show a tendency, not a rule. We report counts, not just averages, so you can judge for yourself.
Live tools behind the studies
- Gold economic calendar: The next NFP, CPI and Fed dates in your time zone.
- NFP and gold tracker: The latest jobs numbers next to the gold price.
- US CPI and gold tracker: The latest inflation numbers next to the gold price.
- Gold vs real yields and the dollar: The two drivers our bond study measures, updated daily.
- Gold correlations: Gold's current correlation with stocks, the dollar and more.
- Position size calculator: Turn a wider event-day stop into a smaller lot.
Prefer to test trading rules rather than events? See gold trading strategies, tested and gold indicator settings, tested. For today's market, start at the daily gold news and events hub.
Review event days with other traders
A shared log of every release is more useful than any single study. Inside the XAUUSD Global community members plan event days together and review the results afterwards. The first month is free, then $19.99 a month.
Frequently asked questions
Where does the data in these studies come from?
From public sources we name on each page: COMEX gold futures (GC=F), stock, bond-fund, currency and index data via Yahoo Finance; US house prices, CPI and real yields from FRED; the World Bank’s monthly gold price for history before 2000; and release dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve. Every number is our own calculation from that data.
Do these studies predict where gold will go?
No. They describe what happened in a stated window. Several samples are small (14 Fed decisions, 13 midterms, about 25 releases with hourly data), and we say so on each page. The practical use is risk planning: knowing how wide event days usually are and how assets have behaved together.
How is a data study different from a playbook?
A playbook, such as the NFP or CPI day playbook, explains how to prepare and trade an event. A data study measures what gold actually did on every past event of that type, with the method and limitations, so you can check the playbook’s assumptions against the record.
Why do you use gold futures instead of spot XAUUSD?
Because COMEX gold futures have a long, free, consistent public history at daily and hourly resolution. Futures trade a few dollars above spot and roll between contracts, so levels differ slightly from your platform, but percentage moves and ranges are very close.
How often are the studies updated?
The event studies are updated as new releases accumulate, and each page states its data window. Live trackers such as the economic calendar, CPI and NFP trackers and the real-yields page update automatically.
Can I discuss these results with other traders?
Yes. Inside the XAUUSD Global community members review event days together, share their own logs and challenge each other’s conclusions. The first month is free, then $19.99 a month.