Gold Seasonality
The average gold return for every calendar month, how often each month was positive, and a year-by-year heatmap. Calculated from public data, refreshed automatically.
Average gold return by month
Month-by-month statistics (last 10 completed years)
| Month | Avg (10y) | Median | Up years | Avg (5y) | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.10% | +3.71% | 7 of 10 | +3.70% | 2026: +9.31% | 2021: -2.52% |
| February | +0.70% | -0.11% | 5 of 10 | +2.65% | 2026: +10.60% | 2021: -6.41% |
| March | +1.48% | +0.89% | 6 of 10 | +3.17% | 2025: +9.63% | 2026: -11.44% |
| April | +1.91% | +1.52% | 6 of 10 | +1.87% | 2020: +6.37% | 2022: -1.92% |
| May | +0.65% | -0.16% | 5 of 10 | -1.24% | 2021: +7.63% | 2022: -3.61% |
| June | -1.68% | -1.84% | 4 of 10 | -2.89% | 2019: +7.96% | 2026: -12.07% |
| July | +1.70% | +1.90% | 7 of 10 | +0.93% | 2020: +9.01% | 2022: -2.46% |
| August | +2.74% | +2.36% | 7 of 10 | +3.55% | 2026: +9.12% | 2022: -2.08% |
| September | -1.39% | -3.25% | 2 of 10 | +0.11% | 2025: +10.16% | 2026: -6.58% |
| October | +1.28% | +1.64% | 6 of 10 | +2.62% | 2023: +6.87% | 2016: -3.18% |
| November | -0.42% | -0.04% | 5 of 10 | +2.23% | 2025: +6.47% | 2016: -7.92% |
| December | +2.67% | +2.85% | 8 of 10 | +2.15% | 2020: +6.72% | 2016: -1.78% |
Gold monthly returns heatmap (% change, by year)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +9.3 | +10.6 | -11.4 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -12.1 | +1.7 | +9.1 | -6.6 | -0.1 | ||
| 2025 | +6.5 | +1.3 | +9.6 | +6.3 | -0.9 | +0.6 | -0.4 | +6.8 | +10.2 | +3.2 | +6.5 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | -1.1 | +0.3 | +7.9 | +3.9 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +3.7 | +4.2 | +5.2 | +3.4 | -3.4 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | +5.7 | -4.8 | +7.2 | +1.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | +2.1 | -0.2 | -5.1 | +6.9 | +2.2 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | -1.8 | +5.9 | +2.5 | -1.9 | -3.6 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -3.1 | -1.9 | +6.4 | +4.6 |
| 2021 | -2.5 | -6.4 | -0.9 | +3.1 | +7.6 | -6.9 | +2.3 | +0.3 | -3.4 | +1.5 | -0.6 | +3.1 |
| 2020 | +4.2 | -1.2 | +1.2 | +6.4 | +4.0 | +2.8 | +9.0 | +0.8 | -4.2 | -0.8 | -5.5 | +6.7 |
| 2019 | +3.2 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -0.8 | +1.8 | +8.0 | +1.2 | +6.5 | -3.5 | +3.1 | -3.0 | +3.7 |
| 2018 | +2.5 | -1.8 | +0.6 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | -2.2 | -1.9 | -0.7 | +1.8 | +0.7 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | +5.1 | +3.6 | -0.4 | +1.5 | +0.5 | -2.5 | +2.1 | +3.9 | -2.6 | -1.1 | +0.5 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | +5.3 | +10.5 | +0.0 | +4.5 | -5.8 | +8.5 | +2.3 | -3.1 | +0.5 | -3.2 | -7.9 | -1.8 |
Source: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) monthly closes. Data updated . Updates automatically several times a day.
What gold seasonality shows
Seasonality means looking at how an asset has behaved in each calendar month over many years. Over the last 10 completed years, the strongest average months for gold were January (+3.10%), August (+2.74%), December (+2.67%). The weakest were June (-1.68%) and September (-1.39%). October has averaged +1.28% with gold higher in 6 of the last 10 years (median +1.64%).
How to read the table
- Avg (10y): the mean of that month's percentage change over the last ten completed years.
- Median: the middle value. If the median is much smaller than the average, one big year is doing the work.
- Up years: how often the month closed higher. 5 of 10 is a coin flip.
- Avg (5y): the recent picture. If it disagrees with the 10-year average, the pattern may be weakening.
Using seasonality responsibly
Treat a month's history as background, like the weather forecast before a trip. It can make you more alert, but it never replaces the plan. Combine it with what actually moves gold (real yields, the dollar, central banks), the economic calendar and solid risk management. If you want to test a seasonal idea, follow our backtesting guide and record results in a trading journal.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best month for gold?
Over the last 10 completed years, the strongest average months for gold were January (+3.10%), August (+2.74%), December (+2.67%). The weakest were June (-1.68%) and September (-1.39%). This changes as new years are added, and averages can be pulled by one big year, so check the median and the up-years count too.
Is gold seasonality reliable?
It is a historical tendency, not a rule. Ten observations per month is a small sample, and one large move (a crisis, a rate shock) can dominate an average. Use seasonality as background context next to price action, news and risk management, never as a reason to trade on its own.
Why might gold have seasonal patterns?
Commonly discussed reasons include physical demand cycles (for example festival and wedding seasons in India, Lunar New Year buying in China), central bank and fund flows around the year end, and the timing of US data and Fed meetings. These are explanations people offer, not guarantees.
Where does this data come from?
Monthly closes of COMEX gold futures (GC=F) from a public market-data feed. Futures track spot XAUUSD closely but are not identical. Each month’s return is the percentage change from the previous month’s close.
How often is this page updated?
The data refreshes automatically several times a day. The current month is shown in the yearly grid as it develops, but only completed months are counted in the averages.
Can I trade gold based on seasonality?
We don’t recommend trading on seasonality alone. Use it as one piece of context, write it in your trading plan if you test it, and measure it in a journal. Our backtesting guide shows how to test any idea properly.
Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Check your own broker's contract specification, margin rules and costs. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.