Start with the gold forecast for next week: it holds the live weekly pivots, the statistical band and the rule-based bias that this article refers to, and it updates once Friday’s close is in. What follows puts those numbers next to the calendar. After a week dominated by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, the week of 2–6 November is about US data: two ISM surveys, the midterm elections and the October jobs report on Friday 6 November.
The other thing to know before Monday: US clocks go back one hour on Sunday 1 November. If you are in London, Frankfurt, Dubai, India or Singapore, every New York release moves one hour later on your clock than it was this week. All times below already include that change.
This is an outlook, not a forecast. It sets out what is scheduled, what the last readings were, where the levels are and how gold has tended to respond, using if/then language throughout.
Where gold starts the week
Gold has just been through one of the busiest weeks of the year and ended up almost where it began. In our COMEX futures data at 03:45 GMT on Friday 30 October:
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Price in our data (Fri 30 Oct, 03:45 GMT) | $4,004.6 |
| Last Friday’s settlement (23 Oct) | $4,007.9 |
| This week’s high and low | $4,097.2 (28 Oct) and $3,990.9 (26 Oct) |
| Change on the week so far | −$3.3 (−0.08%) |
| September’s last close | $4,186.7 |
| Change in October so far | −$182.1 (−4.35%) |
| 14-day average daily range | $66.5 |
| 20 / 50 / 200-day averages | $4,128.2 / $4,308.2 / $4,523.0 |
The week’s story in three lines: the Fed held on Wednesday in a 10–2 vote with two officials wanting a hike, and gold briefly reached $4,097.2; on Thursday PCE matched forecasts, GDP beat and the ECB held while pointing to December; on Friday the BoJ held with a hawkish tilt and gold slipped to $4,002.0. Our PCE, GDP and ECB reaction review and BoJ guide have the detail.
CME FedWatch put the chance of a December Fed hike at 79.6% after Thursday’s data, down from 84.2% a day earlier, Fox Business reported. That number is the main thing next week’s data can move.
These figures are mid-Friday. Friday’s US session, including the Q3 Employment Cost Index at 12:30 GMT, and the weekly close at 21:00 GMT can still change them.
The US clock change, explained once
| This week (until Sat 31 Oct) | Next week (from Sun 1 Nov) | |
|---|---|---|
| New York | EDT, UTC−4 | EST, UTC−5 |
| London | GMT, UTC+0 | GMT, UTC+0 |
| India | IST, UTC+5:30 | IST, UTC+5:30 |
| 8:30 am New York data | 12:30 GMT / 18:00 IST | 13:30 GMT / 19:00 IST |
| 10:00 am New York data | 14:00 GMT / 19:30 IST | 15:00 GMT / 20:30 IST |
| Weekly close (5 pm New York) | 21:00 GMT / 02:30 IST Sat | 22:00 GMT / 03:30 IST Sat |
US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 am local time on Sunday 1 November. Europe changed a week earlier, on 25 October, which is why US releases landed an hour “early” in Europe this week. From Monday, the usual gaps return: New York is five hours behind London and 10½ hours behind India. Traders in Australia also see a change, because Sydney is on daylight time (AEDT, UTC+11) while New York is not. Our gold market hours tool shows the sessions on your own clock.
The calendar in six time zones
| Event | New York (EST) | GMT / London | Frankfurt (CET) | Dubai | India | Singapore / KL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2: ISM manufacturing (Oct) | 10:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | 20:30 | 23:00 |
| Tue 3: RBA decision | 22:30 Mon | 03:30 | 04:30 | 07:30 | 09:00 | 11:30 |
| Tue 3: US midterm polls start closing | 19:00 | 00:00 Wed | 01:00 Wed | 04:00 Wed | 05:30 Wed | 08:00 Wed |
| Wed 4: ISM services (Oct) | 10:00 | 15:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | 20:30 | 23:00 |
| Thu 5: Bank of England decision | 07:00 | 12:00 | 13:00 | 16:00 | 17:30 | 20:00 |
| Thu 5: US weekly jobless claims | 08:30 | 13:30 | 14:30 | 17:30 | 19:00 | 21:30 |
| Fri 6: US jobs report (NFP, October) | 08:30 | 13:30 | 14:30 | 17:30 | 19:00 | 21:30 |
| Fri 6: Weekly close | 17:00 | 22:00 | 23:00 | 02:00 Sat | 03:30 Sat | 06:00 Sat |
Sources for the dates: the BLS schedule for the jobs report, the Bank of England’s MPC calendar, the RBA’s board meeting schedule (2–3 November, with the decision at 14:30 Sydney time) and ISM’s usual timing of the first and third business days at 10:00 am ET. Our gold market events page converts every time to your own clock automatically.
What to watch in each event
ISM manufacturing (Monday). The September survey showed the manufacturing PMI at 54.5, slightly below August’s 54.6, and the prices index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, according to ISM. That prices number is the one to watch for gold. Another high reading would add to the case that energy costs are spreading through the economy, which is exactly what the Fed has said it wants to prevent. A drop would ease that worry.
The RBA (Tuesday, Asian morning). Australia’s central bank ends its two-day meeting on 3 November. A Perpetual economic note was headlined “RBA signals another rate rise in November”. For gold, an RBA hike matters mainly as one more sign that central banks are tightening against energy-driven inflation. It tends to move AUD far more than XAUUSD.
The US midterm elections (Tuesday night). Polls close between 7 pm and 1 am Eastern time, which means results arrive in the thin Asian session on Wednesday. Our dedicated guide to gold and the US midterm elections covers how fiscal and policy expectations can feed into yields and the dollar, and why liquidity is the main practical risk.
ISM services (Wednesday). Services make up most of the US economy. Watch the prices paid component for the same reason as Monday’s survey.
The Bank of England (Thursday). The BoE announces its decision with the November Monetary Policy Report at 12:00 GMT. Sterling has a much smaller weight in the dollar index than the euro or yen, so a BoE surprise usually reaches gold only lightly, through the dollar.
The October jobs report (Friday). This is the big one. The September report, released on 2 October, showed nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, according to the BLS. That was a weak number, yet the Fed still held this week with two votes for a hike, because inflation is the bigger worry. A strong October report would make a December hike harder to argue against; another weak one, especially with rising unemployment, would be the first real challenge to it.
For scale: on 2 October, the day of the September report, COMEX gold futures traded between $4,153.8 and $4,259.0, a $105.2 range, and closed $40.0 lower at $4,162.3, in Yahoo Finance daily data. That is far more than this week’s $16 PCE hour. Our NFP day playbook and the step-by-step guide to trading gold on NFP day cover the routine, and the gold and NFP tool shows past reactions.
The levels on the weekly map
These are mechanical levels from our forecast method, calculated from this week’s high ($4,097.2), low ($3,990.9) and the price at 03:45 GMT on Friday ($4,004.6), standing in for the close. They are provisional: once Friday’s settlement is in, the pivot and band will shift, by a few dollars if gold stays near $4,000 and by more if Friday turns into a big day. The forecast page will show the final numbers.
| Level | Price (provisional) |
|---|---|
| R2 | $4,137.2 |
| 20-day average | $4,120.3 |
| Statistical band top | $4,096.4 |
| Fibonacci R2 | $4,096.6 |
| R1 | $4,070.9 |
| Weekly pivot (P) | $4,030.9 |
| Round number | $4,000.0 |
| Fibonacci S1 | $3,990.3 |
| S1 | $3,964.6 |
| S2 | $3,924.6 |
| Statistical band bottom | $3,912.9 |
Three areas stand out. $4,096–4,097 above, where the band top, the Fibonacci R2 and this week’s Fed-night high of $4,097.2 nearly coincide. $3,990–4,000 below the current price, where the round number meets the Fibonacci S1 and this week’s low of $3,990.9. And $3,913–3,925 further down, where S2 and the band bottom sit close to the 2026 lows.
The typical weekly range over the last 12 weeks has been $183.5, and the 14-day ADR in this calculation is $64.5. On the provisional numbers the forecast page’s rule-based bias reads “Lean lower”: the close is below both the 20 and 50-day averages and the last four weekly closes have each been lower. That label is a description of the trend, not a call, and it could change with Friday’s close. If you are new to these levels, our guide to pivot points explains how traders use them.
If/then scenarios for the week
These scenarios are not predictions or trade recommendations. Gold can gap on Monday’s open, move sharply on election results in thin Asian trade and swing tens of dollars in minutes on NFP. Size every position from the stop.
If ISM prices stay high on Monday and Wednesday, then the market’s December hike case gets more support and yields could firm. If gold also loses the $3,990–4,000 area and holds below it, S1 at $3,964.6 and then the $3,913–3,925 area come into focus.
If the ISM prices indexes cool, then the energy-pass-through story weakens a little. If gold holds above the pivot at $4,030.9, R1 at $4,070.9 and the $4,096–4,097 cluster are the next reference levels.
If election results trigger a big move in Treasury yields, then follow the yields rather than the headlines. Rising yields have been gold’s main headwind this autumn; falling yields have not always helped, as this Friday showed.
If Friday’s jobs report is strong (solid payroll growth with unemployment steady or lower), then December hike odds would likely rise from the high 70s and gold would be trading against that. The S1 to S2 zone ($3,925–3,965) is the area on the map below the round number.
If Friday’s jobs report is weak again, especially with unemployment rising from 4.2%, then December hike odds could fall meaningfully for the first time since September. If gold then clears the pivot, the $4,070 and $4,096 areas are the next levels, with the 20-day average at $4,120.3 above them.
If NFP and ISM point in different directions, expect a choppy week inside the band. Wage data inside the jobs report often decides the final reaction, because it feeds straight into the Fed’s inflation worry.
None of these says where gold will end the week. They describe which levels come next if a condition is met.
Practical points for next week
- Reset your alarms. The US clock change is the easiest way to miss a release. From Monday, NFP and other 8:30 am data land at 13:30 GMT and 19:00 IST, and 10:00 am data at 15:00 GMT and 20:30 IST.
- Treat Tuesday night as an event. Election results in the Asian session can move the dollar and yields with very little liquidity behind them.
- Expect wide spreads on Friday. NFP regularly moves gold by tens of dollars in minutes. The position size calculator shows how much to cut size when the stop needs to be wider.
- Recheck the levels on Sunday. This article’s pivots are provisional; the forecast page and the XAUUSD analysis update after the close.
- Follow the daily story. Our XAUUSD news hub publishes the day’s key gold stories every day.
Trade it together
A jobs report week with an election in the middle is easier with company. In the XAUUSD Global community, members post their plan for the week on Sunday, share the numbers as each release lands and review what the chart did afterwards. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, and you can cancel any time. Join the community and trade NFP week together with us.
Sources
- BLS: Employment Situation release schedule (October 2026 data on 6 November at 8:30 am)
- BLS: The Employment Situation, September 2026 (payrolls +29,000, unemployment 4.2%)
- ISM: Manufacturing PMI, September 2026 (54.5; prices index 77.9)
- Bank of England: Upcoming MPC dates (5 November with the Monetary Policy Report)
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Board meeting schedules (2–3 November)
- Finance Calendar: RBA rate decision, 3 November 2026 (14:30 AEDT announcement time)
- Perpetual: Weekly economic update
- Fox Business: September PCE and CME FedWatch odds
- Gold prices, ranges and levels: Yahoo Finance daily and intraday data for GC=F and our own calculations, as used on the gold forecast and XAUUSD analysis pages
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
When is the October 2026 jobs report released?
The BLS releases the Employment Situation for October 2026 on Friday 6 November at 8:30 am Eastern Time. Because US clocks go back on 1 November, that is 13:30 GMT, 14:30 in Frankfurt, 17:30 in Dubai, 19:00 in India and 21:30 in Singapore.
How does the US clock change affect gold release times?
US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 am on Sunday 1 November 2026, and New York moves from UTC−4 to UTC−5. Europe already changed on 25 October and India does not change. So from Monday every 8:30 am New York release lands one hour later than it did this week: 13:30 instead of 12:30 in London, and 19:00 instead of 18:00 in India.
What are the main events for gold in the week of 2 November 2026?
ISM manufacturing on Monday 2 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia decision and the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, ISM services on Wednesday 4 November, the Bank of England decision on Thursday 5 November and the US October jobs report on Friday 6 November.
What gold levels matter next week?
Using this week’s data up to 03:45 GMT on Friday 30 October, our forecast method gives a provisional weekly pivot of $4,030.9, R1 at $4,070.9, S1 at $3,964.6 and a statistical band of $3,912.9 to $4,096.4, with $4,000 as the round number. These will shift once Friday’s close is in, so recheck the live forecast page over the weekend.
What was the last jobs report?
The September report, released on 2 October, showed nonfarm payrolls up 29,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, according to the BLS. On that day COMEX gold futures traded in a $105.2 range and closed $40.0 lower in Yahoo Finance data.
Will gold go up or down next week?
This page does not forecast that. Gold tends to react to surprises against expectations through real yields and the dollar. The scenarios here describe which levels come next if a condition is met, so you can plan before each event instead of reacting to it.