The short answer
Across the 14 scheduled Fed decisions from January 2025 to September 2026, gold futures showed no consistent direction: up on 7 decision days, down on 7. What did show up was size. The decision-day high-low range was larger than the 20-day average on 8 of the 14 days, against about 4 in 10 days normally, and the biggest close-to-close moves tended to come on the day after the decision rather than on the day itself.
That matches how the FOMC day playbook describes Fed days: direction comes from the surprise, which you cannot know in advance, while wider ranges are something you can plan for. For tonight’s times, see Fed decision time today, and for what the statement could signal, read December Fed hike odds and gold.
The data and how it was built
- Decision dates and outcomes: the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar and each meeting’s statement. Only the scheduled two-day meetings are included; the 22 August 2025 notation vote produced no rate decision.
- Gold prices: COMEX gold futures, Yahoo Finance symbol GC=F, daily open, high, low and close, downloaded on 28 October 2026. This is the same series our XAUUSD analysis page uses; for the 12 months that overlap with our site data file, the closes match exactly.
- Day before / decision day / next day: the trading sessions immediately before and after each decision date. After 18 June 2025, the next session in the data is 20 June because the series has no bar for the 19 June US holiday.
- % moves: close-to-close changes. “Two-day” runs from the close before the decision to the close the day after.
- Range ratio: decision-day high minus low, divided by the average high-low range of the previous 20 sessions (18 sessions for January 2025, where the downloaded data starts on 2 January).
Two limits are worth stating plainly. First, the futures bar for a decision day covers the whole session, including the hours before the 2:00 pm New York release, and it closes three hours after the statement, so part of the reaction spills into the next day’s bar. Second, GC=F is a continuous front-month series: when it rolls from one contract to the next, the price can jump slightly for reasons that have nothing to do with the Fed.
Gold around the last 14 Fed decisions
| Decision | Rate outcome | Close day before | Decision-day close | Next-day close | Decision day | Next day | Two-day | Decision-day range | vs 20-day avg range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2025 | Hold 4.25–4.50% | $2,767.5 | $2,769.8 | $2,823.0 | +0.08% | +1.92% | +2.01% | $17.1 | 0.49× |
| 19 Mar 2025 | Hold 4.25–4.50% | $3,040.8 | $3,041.2 | $3,043.8 | +0.01% | +0.09% | +0.10% | $30.3 | 0.73× |
| 7 May 2025 | Hold 4.25–4.50% | $3,422.8 | $3,391.9 | $3,306.0 | −0.90% | −2.53% | −3.41% | $81.2 | 0.94× |
| 18 Jun 2025 | Hold 4.25–4.50% | $3,406.9 | $3,408.1 | $3,385.7 | +0.04% | −0.66% | −0.62% | $38.9 | 0.62× |
| 30 Jul 2025 | Hold 4.25–4.50% | $3,324.0 | $3,295.8 | $3,293.2 | −0.85% | −0.08% | −0.93% | $67.9 | 1.51× |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Cut to 4.00–4.25% | $3,725.1 | $3,717.8 | $3,678.3 | −0.20% | −1.06% | −1.26% | $64.5 | 1.41× |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Cut to 3.75–4.00% | $3,983.1 | $4,000.7 | $4,015.9 | +0.44% | +0.38% | +0.82% | $116.2 | 1.01× |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Cut to 3.50–3.75% | $4,236.2 | $4,224.7 | $4,313.0 | −0.27% | +2.09% | +1.81% | $61.0 | 0.78× |
| 28 Jan 2026 | Hold 3.50–3.75% | $5,082.6 | $5,303.6 | $5,318.4 | +4.35% | +0.28% | +4.64% | $260.4 | 2.39× |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Hold 3.50–3.75% | $5,008.2 | $4,896.2 | $4,605.7 | −2.24% | −5.93% | −8.04% | $212.7 | 1.59× |
| 29 Apr 2026 | Hold 3.50–3.75% | $4,608.4 | $4,561.5 | $4,629.6 | −1.02% | +1.49% | +0.46% | $102.1 | 0.86× |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Hold 3.50–3.75% | $4,354.4 | $4,381.4 | $4,245.9 | +0.62% | −3.09% | −2.49% | $166.2 | 1.50× |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Hold 3.50–3.75% | $4,038.7 | $4,036.3 | $4,100.1 | −0.06% | +1.58% | +1.52% | $121.4 | 1.33× |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Hike to 3.75–4.00% | $4,332.8 | $4,387.5 | $4,399.7 | +1.26% | +0.28% | +1.54% | $139.8 | 1.23× |
Sources: rate outcomes from the Federal Reserve’s statements; prices from COMEX gold futures (GC=F) via Yahoo Finance; all percentages and ratios are our own calculations from that data.
What the numbers show
1. Direction was a coin toss
| Measure | Count (of 14) |
|---|---|
| Decision day closed higher | 7 |
| Next day closed higher | 8 |
| Next day moved in the same direction as decision day | 9 |
Seven up, seven down on decision day. Even the outcome type did not line up neatly: the three 2025 cuts produced decision-day moves of −0.20%, +0.44% and −0.27%, and the one hike in the sample (September 2026) produced a gain of 1.26%. That last point surprises many people, but it fits the idea that markets react to the surprise against expectations rather than the decision itself. Our long-run study of gold during Fed hiking cycles makes the same point over a much longer period.
2. Fed days were usually wider than normal
| Measure | Fed decision days | All days in the period |
|---|---|---|
| Median range vs 20-day average | 1.12× | 0.93× |
| Share of days with range above the 20-day average | 57% (8 of 14) | 39.4% |
On a typical day, gold’s range was a little below its recent average. On Fed days it was usually above it. The effect was not universal: five of the eight 2025 meetings had decision-day ranges below average (median 0.86×), while all but one of the six 2026 meetings were above it (median 1.42×). In 2026 the Fed was debating a turn from holding to hiking, and each meeting carried more uncertainty.
3. The day after often moved more than the day itself
| Median absolute close-to-close move | Value |
|---|---|
| Decision day | 0.53% |
| Day after | 1.28% |
| All days in the period | 0.82% |
| Two days (close before → close after) | 1.53%, against 1.17% for any two-day window |
The decision-day close often barely moved, even when the range was wide: price spiked and came back. The bigger close-to-close changes came the next day. Part of this is the clock: the statement lands at 2:00 pm New York and the press conference runs to around 3:30 pm, while the COMEX daily bar closes at 5:00 pm, so the follow-through after that lands in the next bar, which opens in the Asian session. Fed nights in Asia are covered in our time zone guide.
4. The biggest moves had other things going on
The two largest swings in the table, +4.35% on 28 January 2026 and −5.93% on 19 March 2026, came in a period of very large gold moves in general: the decision-day range was 2.39 times and 1.59 times the 20-day average, but the 20-day averages themselves were already high ($109.2 and $134.2). January 2026 was also the month of gold’s record high on our news page. It would be a mistake to credit those moves to the Fed alone; the decision was one input among several.
At the other end, the quietest Fed days were in early 2025, when the Fed held for five meetings in a row and markets had little reason to expect a change. The January and March 2025 decisions produced ranges of just $17.1 and $30.3, about half to three-quarters of the recent average, and gold closed almost exactly where it started. When a decision is fully expected and the message barely changes, a Fed day can be one of the calmest of the month.
What it means for tonight
None of this tells you which way gold goes after tonight’s decision. What it does support is a practical risk plan:
- Expect a wider range than usual. With the 20-day average range at $69.7 in our data this morning, a Fed day in line with the sample median (1.12×) would be about $78, but individual meetings ranged from 0.49× to 2.39×. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
- Do not judge the reaction by the 2:00 pm candle. The decision-day close often ended near where it started, while the next session moved more.
- Plan for tomorrow too. Thursday brings US PCE inflation and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT, the morning after the Fed, which can extend or reverse the move.
- Size from the stop. If your stop must be wider, your position must be smaller. The position size calculator does the maths, and the gold volatility page shows current ranges.
Past Fed-day moves do not predict the next one. Fourteen decisions is a small sample, the market background changed sharply over the period, and spreads and slippage around the release can make real results worse than any daily bar suggests.
For tonight’s reference levels and if/then scenarios, read the 28 October Fed preview and December hike odds and gold. The XAUUSD analysis page updates the daily pivots every hour.
How to keep your own Fed-day log
The best version of this table is the one you build from your own trading. After each decision, note:
- The close before, the decision-day close and range, and the next-day close and range.
- What was priced beforehand (the FedWatch odds) and what the Fed actually said.
- Whether the first move held or reversed in the press conference.
- What you did, and whether you followed your plan.
After a year you will have eight more rows and a much clearer sense of how you, not just gold, handle Fed days. Our trading journal entry explains how to set one up.
Trade the Fed together
The table above is history; tonight is live. Inside the XAUUSD Global community, members log every Fed day in a shared review: the plan before, the reaction during the statement and press conference, and the result the next morning. No signals: everyone brings their own plan and reasoning, and we learn from the log together. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, cancel any time. Join the community and trade tonight’s decision with us.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars and statements, including the statements of 29 January 2025, 19 March 2025, 7 May 2025, 18 June 2025, 30 July 2025, 17 September 2025, 29 October 2025, 10 December 2025, 28 January 2026, 18 March 2026, 29 April 2026, 17 June 2026, 29 July 2026 and 16 September 2026
- COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily data via Yahoo Finance, downloaded 28 October 2026; all percentages, ranges and ratios are our own calculations
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
Does gold go up or down after a Fed decision?
Neither reliably. In our data for the 14 Fed decisions from January 2025 to September 2026, gold futures closed higher on 7 decision days and lower on 7. The next day it closed higher 8 times and lower 6 times. The direction depended on the surprise and on everything else happening in markets, not on the decision itself.
How much does gold move on a Fed day?
On the 14 decision days, gold’s high-low range was a median 1.12 times its average range over the previous 20 sessions, and it was larger than that average on 8 of the 14 days. Across all trading days in the same period the median was 0.93 times, with only 39.4% of days above the average. Fed days tend to be wider than normal, but not always.
Is the day after the Fed decision more volatile for gold?
In this sample, the close-to-close move was often bigger on the day after the decision than on the day itself. The median absolute change was 1.28% the next day against 0.53% on decision day, and 0.82% for all days in the period. Part of the reason is timing: the decision lands at 2:00 pm New York, late in the futures session, so much of the reaction falls into the next day’s bar.
What happened to gold on the September 2026 Fed hike day?
On 16 September 2026, when the Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%, gold futures closed at $4,387.5, up 1.26% from $4,332.8 the day before, with a $139.8 high-low range. The next day it closed at $4,399.7, up another 0.28%. One example cannot tell you how gold will react to the next decision.
Where does this data come from?
Decision dates and rate outcomes come from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar and statements. Gold prices are COMEX gold futures (Yahoo Finance symbol GC=F) daily open, high, low and close, the same source used on our analysis and forecast pages. Spot XAUUSD at your platform differs slightly, and futures roll between contracts every two months.
Can I use this table to predict tonight's gold move?
No. Fourteen decisions is a small sample, the market background changed a lot over the period, and some of the biggest moves happened alongside other news. The useful lesson is about risk: Fed days and the days after them are often wider than normal, so stops and position sizes need to allow for that.