The short answer
At the daily level, US CPI days have been less dramatic for gold than their reputation. Across 79 releases from February 2020 to October 2026, the day’s high-low range was a median 1.02 times its 20-day average, against 0.92 times on ordinary days, and the median close-to-close move was 0.61%, the same as any day’s 0.60%. About half of CPI days (52%) were wider than average, against 41% of all days.
The release hour tells a different story. For the 28 releases since June 2024 with hourly data, the 8:00–9:00 am New York hour had a median range of $29.6, against $17.0 for that hour on ordinary weekdays (1.94 times the recent norm). The move is concentrated and then often absorbed: the first move reversed by the close in 8 of 28 releases, and the next day went the other way 61% of the time.
This is a data study. For the release-day routine, see the CPI day gold playbook; for the inflation numbers themselves, the US CPI and gold tracker.
What we measured, in one table
| Measure | CPI release days | All trading days, same period |
|---|---|---|
| Days in the sample | 79 | 1,690 |
| Day’s range vs its 20-day average (median) | 1.02× | 0.92× |
| Share of days with range above the 20-day average | 52% | 41% |
| Closed higher | 44 of 79 (56%) | 54% |
| Median absolute close-to-close move | 0.61% | 0.60% |
| Next day: median absolute move | 0.68% | 0.60% |
| Next day moved the same way as release day | 31 of 79 | n/a |
Compare that with the jobs report. On NFP days, in our NFP study, the median range ratio was 1.14 and the median move 0.84%, both clearly above normal. On CPI days the daily numbers sit close to an ordinary day. The likeliest reason is that the CPI reaction is usually absorbed quickly: a sharp release hour, then a session that often settles near where it started.
The next day is the second difference. After NFP, the next day moved the same way 44 times out of 77. After CPI it did so only 31 times out of 79, so the day after CPI more often reversed CPI day’s direction than extended it.
The release hour, 2024–2026
Hourly gold data starts in June 2024, so these measures cover the last 28 releases. The “release hour” is the 8:00–9:00 am New York bar, which contains the 8:30 am release. The “pre-release price” is that bar’s open.
| Release hour (8:00–9:00 am New York) | Value |
|---|---|
| Releases with hourly data | 28 (12 Jun 2024 to 14 Oct 2026) |
| Median range of the release hour | $29.6 |
| Same hour on ordinary weekdays (median) | $17.0 (569 days) |
| Median release-hour range vs the previous 20 ordinary days | 1.94× |
| Median range of the first two hours (8:00–10:00 am) | $35.4 |
| First hour closed higher | 18 of 28 |
| First move reversed by the 5 pm close (closed on the other side of the pre-release price) | 8 of 28 (29%) |
| First move extended by the 5 pm close (closed beyond the first-hour close) | 13 of 28 (46%) |
The reversal count needs a caveat. In nine releases the first hour moved less than $5 in either direction, and five of the eight “reversals” came from those. Where the first hour moved $5 or more, gold reversed through the pre-release price by the close 3 times in 19 and extended the move 9 times. Big first moves did tend to last into the close; tiny ones were noise.
The widest release hours came in 2026, as gold’s overall volatility rose: $99.6 on 11 September, $82.7 on 14 July and $72.7 on 14 October. Our review of the 14 October CPI day walks through one of them.
Year by year
| Year | Releases | Median day range | Median range vs 20-day avg | Median absolute move | Closed higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | $23.3 | 0.85× | 0.51% | 4 of 10 |
| 2021 | 12 | $28.2 | 1.22× | 0.64% | 11 of 12 |
| 2022 | 12 | $38.0 | 1.27× | 0.66% | 10 of 12 |
| 2023 | 12 | $27.6 | 0.97× | 0.29% | 5 of 12 |
| 2024 | 12 | $39.8 | 1.14× | 1.07% | 5 of 12 |
| 2025 | 11 | $48.1 | 0.97× | 0.23% | 5 of 11 |
| 2026 | 10 | $105.2 | 0.95× | 1.05% | 4 of 10 |
The direction pattern in 2021 and 2022 is striking: CPI days closed higher 11 of 12 and 10 of 12 times. That was the period when inflation was rising fastest and the Fed was moving from zero rates to aggressive hikes. It did not persist: from 2023 to 2026, CPI days closed higher 19 times out of 45. A pattern that holds for two years and then disappears is exactly why small samples need caution. Dollar ranges, meanwhile, rose from a median $23.3 in 2020 to $105.2 in 2026.
Every release since 2020
Newest first. Hourly columns start in June 2024. “Next day” is the following session’s close-to-close change.
| Release day | Close | Change | Day range | vs 20-day avg | Next day | Release-hour range | vs normal | First hour | By 5 pm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | $4,107.9 | −1.66% | $98.5 | 1.19× | +1.51% | $72.7 | 3.4× | −$41.9 | Partly faded |
| 11 Sep 2026 | $4,408.9 | +0.04% | $111.9 | 0.99× | −1.29% | $99.6 | 4.1× | +$55.0 | Partly faded |
| 12 Aug 2026 | $4,467.5 | +0.59% | $81.3 | 0.91× | −1.05% | $59.3 | 2.6× | +$25.8 | Reversed |
| 14 Jul 2026 | $4,069.7 | +1.60% | $122.1 | 1.16× | −0.44% | $82.7 | 3.2× | +$45.4 | Partly faded |
| 10 Jun 2026 | $4,133.3 | −3.57% | $191.0 | 1.80× | −0.47% | $45.3 | 2.1× | −$0.3 | Extended |
| 12 May 2026 | $4,686.7 | −0.89% | $138.2 | 1.33× | +0.43% | $22.4 | 1.0× | −$0.7 | Reversed |
| 10 Apr 2026 | $4,787.4 | −0.64% | $67.3 | 0.37× | −0.42% | $23.0 | 0.7× | +$3.4 | Reversed |
| 11 Mar 2026 | $5,179.1 | −1.20% | $75.0 | 0.50× | −1.03% | $35.5 | 1.1× | −$13.6 | Partly faded |
| 13 Feb 2026 | $5,046.3 | +1.98% | $162.0 | 0.69× | −2.78% | $47.4 | 1.4× | +$18.4 | Extended |
| 13 Jan 2026 | $4,599.1 | −0.34% | $67.3 | 0.74× | +0.80% | $30.2 | 1.2× | +$17.8 | Reversed |
| 18 Dec 2025 | $4,364.5 | −0.21% | $71.5 | 1.05× | +0.52% | $29.1 | 1.2× | +$15.8 | Partly faded |
| 24 Oct 2025 | $4,137.8 | −0.19% | $103.3 | 0.97× | −2.85% | $36.7 | 2.1× | +$20.4 | Extended |
| 11 Sep 2025 | $3,673.6 | −0.23% | $36.5 | 0.82× | +0.35% | $31.0 | 2.7× | +$11.7 | Extended |
| 12 Aug 2025 | $3,399.0 | −0.17% | $31.7 | 0.60× | +0.27% | $19.9 | 1.4× | +$2.0 | Extended |
| 15 Jul 2025 | $3,336.7 | −0.67% | $48.1 | 1.00× | +0.67% | $14.8 | 1.3× | −$6.2 | Extended |
| 11 Jun 2025 | $3,343.7 | +0.01% | $46.9 | 0.69× | +1.76% | $34.5 | 2.1× | +$3.5 | Extended |
| 13 May 2025 | $3,247.8 | +0.61% | $50.3 | 0.58× | −1.83% | $12.2 | 0.8× | −$6.6 | Reversed |
| 10 Apr 2025 | $3,177.5 | +3.19% | $108.9 | 1.93× | +2.11% | $34.7 | 3.4× | −$2.6 | Reversed |
| 12 Mar 2025 | $2,946.8 | +0.89% | $37.9 | 0.82× | +1.51% | $12.4 | 1.2× | +$2.7 | Extended |
| 12 Feb 2025 | $2,928.7 | −0.13% | $50.0 | 1.28× | +0.57% | $25.7 | 1.8× | −$1.8 | Reversed |
| 15 Jan 2025 | $2,717.8 | +1.32% | $37.3 | 1.10× | +1.22% | $14.8 | 1.1× | +$10.4 | Extended |
| 11 Dec 2024 | $2,756.7 | +1.41% | $40.6 | 1.01× | −1.72% | $31.0 | 1.8× | +$6.6 | Extended |
| 13 Nov 2024 | $2,586.5 | −0.76% | $46.9 | 1.22× | −0.53% | $12.0 | 1.2× | +$2.9 | Reversed |
| 10 Oct 2024 | $2,639.3 | +0.51% | $30.1 | 0.90× | +1.40% | $25.6 | 2.5× | +$12.0 | Extended |
| 11 Sep 2024 | $2,542.4 | −0.03% | $29.0 | 0.89× | +1.50% | $22.8 | 2.7× | −$12.7 | Partly faded |
| 14 Aug 2024 | $2,479.7 | −1.12% | $43.5 | 1.07× | +0.51% | $18.9 | 2.2× | −$5.9 | Extended |
| 11 Jul 2024 | $2,421.9 | +1.77% | $53.6 | 1.77× | −0.05% | $32.4 | 4.0× | +$25.5 | Extended |
| 12 Jun 2024 | $2,354.8 | +1.21% | $31.6 | 0.83× | −1.56% | $26.5 | 2.9× | +$23.5 | Partly faded |
| 15 May 2024 | $2,394.9 | +1.48% | $39.0 | 1.04× | −0.39% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Apr 2024 | $2,348.4 | −0.59% | $41.0 | 1.24× | +1.03% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Mar 2024 | $2,166.1 | −1.03% | $34.6 | 1.45× | +0.68% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Feb 2024 | $2,007.2 | −1.27% | $44.5 | 2.01× | −0.14% | – | – | – | – |
| 11 Jan 2024 | $2,019.2 | −0.42% | $38.8 | 1.58× | +1.60% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Dec 2023 | $1,993.2 | −0.03% | $20.2 | 0.70× | +0.21% | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Nov 2023 | $1,966.5 | +0.84% | $36.5 | 1.48× | −0.11% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Oct 2023 | $1,883.0 | −0.23% | $17.7 | 0.95× | +3.11% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Sep 2023 | $1,932.5 | −0.13% | $11.2 | 0.70× | +0.02% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Aug 2023 | $1,948.9 | −0.09% | $19.1 | 0.99× | −0.12% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Jul 2023 | $1,961.7 | +1.27% | $27.6 | 1.24× | +0.11% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Jun 2023 | $1,958.6 | −0.56% | $32.9 | 1.30× | +0.53% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 May 2023 | $2,037.1 | −0.28% | $27.7 | 0.87× | −0.81% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Apr 2023 | $2,024.9 | +0.29% | $28.2 | 0.82× | +1.50% | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Mar 2023 | $1,910.9 | −0.29% | $19.6 | 0.82× | +1.07% | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Feb 2023 | $1,865.4 | +0.10% | $29.1 | 1.06× | −1.08% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Jan 2023 | $1,898.8 | +1.06% | $34.1 | 1.37× | +1.21% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Dec 2022 | $1,825.5 | +1.85% | $45.1 | 1.99× | −0.37% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Nov 2022 | $1,753.7 | +2.33% | $55.1 | 1.91× | +0.90% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Oct 2022 | $1,677.0 | −0.03% | $40.6 | 1.40× | −1.68% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Sep 2022 | $1,717.4 | −1.33% | $36.2 | 1.65× | −0.48% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Aug 2022 | $1,813.7 | +0.08% | $21.3 | 0.86× | −0.36% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Jul 2022 | $1,735.5 | +0.62% | $39.8 | 1.42× | −1.71% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Jun 2022 | $1,875.5 | +1.23% | $53.1 | 2.17× | −2.33% | – | – | – | – |
| 11 May 2022 | $1,853.7 | +0.69% | $27.2 | 0.92× | −1.57% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Apr 2022 | $1,976.1 | +1.43% | $29.7 | 1.02× | +0.44% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Mar 2022 | $2,000.4 | +0.61% | $40.1 | 0.98× | −0.77% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Feb 2022 | $1,837.4 | +0.04% | $21.5 | 1.13× | +0.26% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Jan 2022 | $1,827.3 | +0.48% | $13.8 | 0.69× | −0.32% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Dec 2021 | $1,784.8 | +0.46% | $20.6 | 0.87× | +0.20% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Nov 2021 | $1,848.3 | +0.96% | $47.6 | 2.10× | +0.84% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Oct 2021 | $1,794.7 | +2.01% | $39.5 | 1.61× | +0.18% | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Sep 2021 | $1,807.1 | +0.71% | $30.0 | 1.50× | −0.68% | – | – | – | – |
| 11 Aug 2021 | $1,753.3 | +1.25% | $32.1 | 1.32× | −0.09% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Jul 2021 | $1,809.9 | +0.22% | $19.3 | 0.74× | +0.83% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Jun 2021 | $1,896.4 | +0.05% | $31.2 | 1.29× | −0.89% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 May 2021 | $1,822.8 | −0.72% | $31.7 | 1.34× | +0.07% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Apr 2021 | $1,747.6 | +0.86% | $26.3 | 1.15× | −0.65% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Mar 2021 | $1,721.8 | +0.29% | $19.7 | 0.61× | +0.05% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Feb 2021 | $1,842.7 | +0.28% | $22.6 | 0.78× | −0.86% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Jan 2021 | $1,854.9 | +0.58% | $21.4 | 0.68× | −0.19% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Dec 2020 | $1,837.4 | −0.06% | $22.7 | 0.77× | +0.34% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Nov 2020 | $1,873.3 | +0.63% | $22.3 | 0.71× | +0.69% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Oct 2020 | $1,894.6 | −1.78% | $41.3 | 1.30× | +0.67% | – | – | – | – |
| 11 Sep 2020 | $1,947.9 | −0.83% | $19.4 | 0.45× | +0.81% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Aug 2020 | $1,949.0 | +0.14% | $86.8 | 2.17× | +1.10% | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Jul 2020 | $1,813.4 | −0.04% | $23.9 | 0.93× | +0.02% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Jun 2020 | $1,720.7 | −0.07% | $35.3 | 1.43× | +1.11% | – | – | – | – |
| 12 May 2020 | $1,704.4 | +0.54% | $13.8 | 0.54× | +0.56% | – | – | – | – |
| 11 Mar 2020 | $1,641.4 | −1.07% | $31.5 | 1.20× | −3.17% | – | – | – | – |
| 13 Feb 2020 | $1,575.1 | +0.49% | $4.9 | 0.42× | +0.48% | – | – | – | – |
The 10 April 2020 release fell on Good Friday, when the futures market was closed, so it has no gold data. The October 2025 CPI was not published because of the 2025 lapse in federal appropriations, and the September 2025 report came out on 24 October 2025.
How we built this study
- Release dates: the BLS Consumer Price Index news release archive, February 2020 (January data) to 14 October 2026 (September data), all at 8:30 am New York time.
- Gold prices: COMEX gold futures (Yahoo Finance symbol GC=F): daily bars from 2020 and 1-hour bars from 10 June 2024, downloaded 30 October 2026.
- Day range vs 20-day average: release-day high minus low, divided by the average high-low range of the previous 20 sessions; baseline is the same ratio for every trading day in the period.
- Release hour: the 8:00–9:00 am New York bar, compared with the same hour on the previous 20 weekdays that were not CPI or NFP days.
- Reversal test: the 5:00 pm New York close against the pre-release price and the first-hour close.
- No surprise split: without a verifiable consensus forecast for every release, we did not split by beat or miss.
Limitations
- Small hourly sample: 28 releases, nine of them with almost no first move.
- Hour bars start 30 minutes early, so the release-hour range includes 30 pre-release minutes.
- Futures, not spot, with contract rolls, and no spreads in the data. Real fills around 8:30 am can be worse than any bar suggests.
- Regimes change. The 2021–2022 direction pattern shows how a result can hold for a period and then vanish.
What traders can do with this
- Plan for the hour, not the whole day. The CPI risk is concentrated around 8:30 am New York (13:30 GMT in winter, 12:30 GMT in summer). Size the stop for a release hour that is typically about twice normal, using the position size calculator.
- Treat tiny first moves as noise. When gold barely moves in the release hour, direction is a coin toss.
- Expect the next day to push back. After CPI, the next day moved the other way 61% of the time in our sample; a trade held overnight needs that risk in its plan.
- Check the calendar. The next CPI is on Tuesday 10 November 2026; the economic calendar shows it in your time zone. The gold vs real yields and dollar tracker shows the channel through which inflation surprises reach gold.
- Keep a CPI log with consensus, actual, your plan and the release-hour range. Over a year it gives you the surprise split this page cannot.
For the bigger question of whether gold protects against inflation over years, not hours, read is gold a good inflation hedge?. Ordinary-day volatility by hour is on when does gold move most.
Prepare for CPI with other traders
Inside the XAUUSD Global community members share their CPI plans before the release, compare the first hour live and review the next day together. No signals, just shared preparation. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month. More studies are on our gold data studies hub, with strategies tested on real data and indicator settings tested.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI news release archive (release dates)
- COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily and 1-hour data via Yahoo Finance, downloaded 30 October 2026; all ranges, ratios and percentages are our own calculations
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
How much does gold move on CPI day?
Less than many traders assume, at the daily level. Across 79 CPI days from February 2020 to October 2026, gold futures’ daily range was a median 1.02 times its 20-day average, against 0.92 times on all days, and 52% of CPI days were wider than average against 41% of all days. The median close-to-close move was 0.61%, the same as an ordinary day’s 0.60%.
How big is the CPI release hour for gold?
For the 28 releases from June 2024 to October 2026 with hourly data, the 8:00–9:00 am New York hour had a median range of $29.6, against $17.0 for the same hour on ordinary weekdays, or a median 1.94 times the previous 20 ordinary days. The widest was $99.6 on 11 September 2026.
Does gold go up on CPI day?
Slightly more often than not, but no more than usual: 44 of 79 CPI days closed higher (56%), against 54% of all days. In 2021 and 2022, when inflation was rising fast, CPI days closed higher 21 times out of 24, but that pattern did not survive into 2023–2026.
Does the first move after CPI reverse?
In 8 of 28 releases with hourly data (29%), gold closed the New York session on the other side of the pre-release price. Five of those eight followed a first hour of less than $5, when there was barely a first move to reverse. Where the first hour moved $5 or more, it reversed 3 times in 19.
What happens to gold the day after CPI?
The next day was slightly busier than normal, with a median absolute move of 0.68% against 0.60% on all days, and it often went the other way: the day after CPI moved in the same direction as CPI day only 31 times out of 79 (39%). That compares with 44 of 77 for NFP.
Why is there no split by CPI surprise?
We do not have a complete, verifiable consensus forecast for every CPI release since 2020, so we did not split the results by beat or miss. The CPI tracker shows the actual inflation numbers, and the CPI day playbook explains how to judge the surprise on the day.