The short answer
On 77 US jobs-report days from February 2020 to October 2026, gold showed no reliable direction but a clearly wider day. Gold futures closed higher on 41 of the 77 days (53%), almost the same as on any day. But the day’s high-low range was a median 1.14 times its 20-day average, against 0.92 times on ordinary days, and 58% of NFP days were wider than average against 41% of all days.
The release hour is where the size is concentrated. For the 25 releases since July 2024 with hourly data, the 8:00–9:00 am New York hour had a median range of $30.1, against $17.0 for the same hour on ordinary weekdays. And the first move reversed by the close only 5 times out of 25 (20%); in 14 cases it extended further.
This page is a data study. For how to prepare and trade the day, see the NFP day gold playbook; for the jobs numbers themselves, the NFP and gold tracker.
What we measured, in one table
| Measure | NFP release days | All trading days, same period |
|---|---|---|
| Days in the sample | 77 | 1,694 |
| Day’s range vs its 20-day average (median) | 1.14× | 0.92× |
| Share of days with range above the 20-day average | 58% | 41% |
| Closed higher | 41 of 77 (53%) | 54% |
| Median absolute close-to-close move | 0.84% | 0.60% |
| Next day: median absolute move | 0.62% | 0.60% |
| Next day moved the same way as release day | 44 of 77 | n/a |
Two of these numbers matter most for risk. The release day is wider than normal more often than not, so a stop sized for an ordinary day is too tight. And the day after is normal: the median next-day move (0.62%) is almost the same as any day’s (0.60%). That is a real difference from Fed decisions, where our gold after FOMC study found the bigger close-to-close move came the day after, because the statement lands late in the futures session. The jobs report lands at 8:30 am New York, so most of the reaction happens inside the same daily bar.
The release hour, 2024–2026
Free hourly gold data only reaches back to June 2024, so the hour-level measures cover the last 25 releases. “Release hour” is the 1-hour bar from 8:00 to 9:00 am New York time, which contains the 8:30 am release and the first 30 minutes of reaction (and 30 quiet minutes before it). The “pre-release price” is that bar’s open.
| Release hour (8:00–9:00 am New York) | Value |
|---|---|
| Releases with hourly data | 25 (5 Jul 2024 to 2 Oct 2026) |
| Median range of the release hour | $30.1 |
| Same hour on ordinary weekdays (median) | $17.0 (572 days) |
| Median release-hour range vs the previous 20 ordinary days | 2.20× |
| Median range of the first two hours (8:00–10:00 am) | $44.6 |
| First hour closed higher | 14 of 25 |
| First move reversed by the 5 pm close (closed on the other side of the pre-release price) | 5 of 25 (20%) |
| First move extended by the 5 pm close (closed beyond the first-hour close) | 14 of 25 (56%) |
How to read the last three rows:
- Reversed (5 of 25): the first hour went one way, and by the 5:00 pm New York close gold had crossed back through the pre-release price. Example: on 2 October 2026, gold rose $36.7 in the release hour, then closed the day $40.0 lower.
- Extended (14 of 25): the close was beyond the first hour’s close in the same direction. The first move was the start, not the end.
- Partly faded (6 of 25): gold gave back some of the first hour but closed on the same side of the pre-release price.
Some first hours were tiny: in five releases gold moved less than $5 between 8:00 and 9:00 am, so “direction” meant little. Leaving those out, the first move reversed by the close 4 times in 20 and extended 11 times.
So in this sample, fading the first NFP move was a losing idea more often than a winning one. That does not make “follow the first move” a strategy either: the first hour itself often whipsawed, and 25 releases is a small sample. Our test of a news straddle on NFP and CPI shows what slippage does to mechanical entries at the release.
Year by year: the backdrop changes the size
| Year | Releases | Median day range | Median range vs 20-day avg | Median absolute move | Closed higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 11 | $25.4 | 0.88× | 0.45% | 5 of 11 |
| 2021 | 11 | $28.8 | 1.17× | 1.20% | 7 of 11 |
| 2022 | 12 | $26.3 | 1.04× | 0.72% | 7 of 12 |
| 2023 | 11 | $36.8 | 1.45× | 1.30% | 7 of 11 |
| 2024 | 12 | $43.7 | 1.36× | 0.59% | 4 of 12 |
| 2025 | 11 | $60.1 | 0.99× | 0.65% | 5 of 11 |
| 2026 | 9 | $114.0 | 0.96× | 1.34% | 6 of 9 |
NFP days were widest relative to normal in 2023 (1.45×) and 2024 (1.36×), when the jobs data was central to the rate-cut debate. In 2025 and 2026 the ratio dropped below 1, but not because NFP days were quiet: the median NFP-day range rose to $60.1 and then $114.0. Gold’s ordinary days became so wide (a run to a record high in January 2026, a sharp fall after it and the Fed’s turn to rate hikes) that the jobs report stood out less. In dollar terms, a 2026 NFP day was more than four times wider than a 2020 one.
Every release since 2020
Newest first. “Release-hour range” and the last three columns need hourly data and start in July 2024. “Next day” is the following session’s close-to-close change.
| Release day | Close | Change | Day range | vs 20-day avg | Next day | Release-hour range | vs normal | First hour | By 5 pm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $4,162.3 | −0.95% | $105.2 | 1.09× | −0.13% | $54.6 | 2.2× | +$36.7 | Reversed |
| 4 Sep 2026 | $4,476.6 | −1.39% | $125.8 | 1.15× | −0.84% | $104.5 | 4.5× | −$72.7 | Partly faded |
| 7 Aug 2026 | $4,399.7 | +2.33% | $144.3 | 1.61× | +0.45% | $71.3 | 3.1× | +$41.3 | Partly faded |
| 2 Jul 2026 | $4,125.7 | +1.06% | $114.3 | 0.96× | +1.01% | $80.8 | 3.3× | +$53.2 | Extended |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $4,365.3 | −3.10% | $172.1 | 1.71× | −0.04% | $72.7 | 3.3× | −$65.3 | Extended |
| 8 May 2026 | $4,730.7 | +0.42% | $89.4 | 0.85× | −0.04% | $32.0 | 1.5× | +$6.6 | Partly faded |
| 6 Mar 2026 | $5,158.7 | +1.58% | $114.0 | 0.69× | −1.07% | $66.1 | 1.9× | +$2.2 | Extended |
| 11 Feb 2026 | $5,098.5 | +1.34% | $108.2 | 0.48× | −2.94% | $78.7 | 2.5× | −$17.9 | Reversed |
| 9 Jan 2026 | $4,500.9 | +0.90% | $65.2 | 0.73× | +2.53% | $33.8 | 1.3× | +$17.4 | Extended |
| 16 Dec 2025 | $4,332.3 | −0.07% | $70.5 | 0.99× | +0.96% | $23.9 | 1.0× | +$19.5 | Partly faded |
| 20 Nov 2025 | $4,060.0 | −0.56% | $75.6 | 0.78× | +0.48% | $30.1 | 1.2× | −$1.7 | Extended |
| 5 Sep 2025 | $3,653.3 | +1.29% | $60.1 | 1.31× | +0.66% | $40.6 | 3.4× | +$29.9 | Extended |
| 1 Aug 2025 | $3,399.8 | +3.24% | $85.5 | 1.87× | +0.78% | $49.2 | 3.8× | +$41.9 | Extended |
| 3 Jul 2025 | $3,342.9 | −0.50% | $55.5 | 1.02× | +0.11% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Jun 2025 | $3,346.6 | −0.84% | $69.5 | 0.93× | +0.25% | $21.7 | 1.3× | −$5.3 | Extended |
| 2 May 2025 | $3,243.3 | +0.65% | $47.5 | 0.52× | +2.44% | $16.1 | 0.6× | −$12.3 | Extended |
| 4 Apr 2025 | $3,035.4 | −2.76% | $127.5 | 2.97× | −2.04% | $68.8 | 7.5× | −$42.1 | Extended |
| 7 Mar 2025 | $2,914.1 | −0.43% | $33.5 | 0.71× | −0.50% | $17.3 | 1.5× | −$5.4 | Extended |
| 7 Feb 2025 | $2,887.6 | +0.38% | $34.5 | 0.92× | +1.62% | $16.9 | 1.3× | −$1.1 | Partly faded |
| 10 Jan 2025 | $2,715.0 | +0.90% | $48.1 | 1.34× | −1.34% | $27.4 | 1.9× | +$8.1 | Extended |
| 6 Dec 2024 | $2,659.6 | +0.42% | $32.3 | 0.76× | +0.99% | $28.0 | 1.9× | −$2.6 | Extended |
| 1 Nov 2024 | $2,749.2 | −0.00% | $29.8 | 0.94× | −0.11% | $11.3 | 1.2× | +$1.3 | Reversed |
| 4 Oct 2024 | $2,667.8 | −0.43% | $39.0 | 1.19× | −0.07% | $29.9 | 3.1× | −$22.8 | Partly faded |
| 6 Sep 2024 | $2,524.6 | −0.73% | $45.9 | 1.34× | +0.32% | $22.5 | 2.6× | +$6.2 | Reversed |
| 2 Aug 2024 | $2,469.8 | −0.44% | $69.4 | 1.86× | −1.03% | $22.6 | 2.7× | +$13.8 | Reversed |
| 5 Jul 2024 | $2,397.7 | +1.19% | $45.5 | 1.38× | −1.43% | $29.2 | 3.1× | +$6.5 | Extended |
| 7 Jun 2024 | $2,325.0 | −2.76% | $102.5 | 2.86× | +0.09% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 May 2024 | $2,308.6 | −0.04% | $45.5 | 0.98× | +0.98% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Apr 2024 | $2,345.4 | +1.60% | $63.8 | 2.14× | +0.24% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Mar 2024 | $2,185.5 | +0.94% | $41.8 | 1.83× | +0.14% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Feb 2024 | $2,053.7 | −0.84% | $30.5 | 1.23× | −0.53% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Jan 2024 | $2,049.8 | −0.01% | $40.3 | 1.63× | −0.80% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Dec 2023 | $2,014.5 | −1.56% | $39.8 | 1.44× | −1.03% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Nov 2023 | $1,999.2 | +0.29% | $22.6 | 0.87× | −0.53% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Oct 2023 | $1,845.2 | +0.73% | $25.5 | 1.45× | +1.04% | – | – | – | – |
| 1 Sep 2023 | $1,967.1 | +0.06% | $19.5 | 1.17× | −0.74% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Aug 2023 | $1,976.1 | +0.37% | $29.7 | 1.52× | −0.31% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Jul 2023 | $1,932.5 | +0.89% | $25.7 | 1.10× | −0.08% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Jun 2023 | $1,969.6 | −1.30% | $36.8 | 1.34× | +0.24% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 May 2023 | $2,024.8 | −1.50% | $54.3 | 1.78× | +0.41% | – | – | – | – |
| 10 Mar 2023 | $1,867.2 | +1.78% | $44.3 | 2.01× | +2.64% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Feb 2023 | $1,876.6 | −2.81% | $57.9 | 2.09× | +0.15% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Jan 2023 | $1,869.7 | +1.58% | $40.0 | 1.65× | +0.43% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Dec 2022 | $1,809.6 | −0.31% | $26.9 | 0.99× | −1.56% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Nov 2022 | $1,676.6 | +2.80% | $55.3 | 2.07× | +0.23% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Oct 2022 | $1,709.3 | −0.67% | $24.4 | 0.85× | −1.99% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Sep 2022 | $1,722.6 | +0.78% | $23.6 | 1.14× | −0.56% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Aug 2022 | $1,791.2 | −0.87% | $31.4 | 1.30× | +0.78% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Jul 2022 | $1,742.3 | +0.15% | $25.7 | 0.88× | −0.61% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Jun 2022 | $1,850.2 | −1.13% | $28.9 | 1.05× | −0.35% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 May 2022 | $1,882.8 | +0.38% | $29.0 | 1.02× | −1.29% | – | – | – | – |
| 1 Apr 2022 | $1,923.7 | −1.31% | $23.1 | 0.57× | +0.54% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Mar 2022 | $1,966.6 | +1.59% | $43.4 | 1.38× | +1.49% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Feb 2022 | $1,807.8 | +0.21% | $23.7 | 1.21× | +0.77% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Jan 2022 | $1,797.4 | +0.46% | $17.1 | 0.87× | +0.08% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Dec 2021 | $1,783.9 | +1.20% | $22.0 | 0.83× | −0.25% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Nov 2021 | $1,816.8 | +1.30% | $34.8 | 1.55× | +0.62% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Oct 2021 | $1,757.4 | −0.10% | $28.8 | 1.17× | −0.10% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Sep 2021 | $1,833.7 | +1.23% | $26.0 | 1.05× | −1.92% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Aug 2021 | $1,763.1 | −2.53% | $47.5 | 2.46× | −2.08% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Jul 2021 | $1,783.3 | +0.37% | $21.5 | 0.79× | +0.61% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Jun 2021 | $1,892.0 | +1.00% | $43.4 | 1.74× | +0.36% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 May 2021 | $1,831.3 | +0.86% | $31.2 | 1.31× | +0.34% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Mar 2021 | $1,698.5 | −0.13% | $22.7 | 0.70× | −1.21% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Feb 2021 | $1,813.0 | +1.22% | $23.8 | 0.72× | +1.17% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Jan 2021 | $1,835.4 | −4.09% | $90.6 | 3.21× | +0.84% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Dec 2020 | $1,840.0 | −0.06% | $20.7 | 0.61× | +1.41% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Nov 2020 | $1,951.7 | +0.25% | $24.6 | 0.88× | −4.99% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Oct 2020 | $1,907.6 | −0.45% | $28.4 | 0.90× | +0.66% | – | – | – | – |
| 4 Sep 2020 | $1,934.3 | −0.18% | $35.0 | 0.68× | +0.46% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Aug 2020 | $2,028.0 | −2.00% | $64.4 | 2.03× | +0.58% | – | – | – | – |
| 2 Jul 2020 | $1,790.0 | +0.57% | $25.4 | 0.88× | +0.20% | – | – | – | – |
| 5 Jun 2020 | $1,683.0 | −2.57% | $51.5 | 2.24× | +1.31% | – | – | – | – |
| 8 May 2020 | $1,709.9 | −0.69% | $25.1 | 0.85× | −0.85% | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Apr 2020 | $1,633.7 | +0.49% | $16.2 | 0.34× | +2.65% | – | – | – | – |
| 6 Mar 2020 | $1,670.8 | +0.26% | $39.0 | 1.76× | +0.22% | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Feb 2020 | $1,568.6 | +0.22% | $11.4 | 0.92× | +0.39% | – | – | – | – |
Three releases fell on days when the futures market was closed for Good Friday (2 April 2021, 7 April 2023 and 3 April 2026) and have no gold data, so they are not in the table. The October 2025 report was not published because of the 2025 lapse in federal appropriations; the September 2025 report came out late, on 20 November 2025.
How we built this study
- Release dates: the BLS Employment Situation archive, February 2020 (January data) to 2 October 2026 (September data). All releases are at 8:30 am New York time.
- Gold prices: COMEX gold futures (Yahoo Finance symbol GC=F): daily bars from 2020 and 1-hour bars from 10 June 2024, downloaded 30 October 2026.
- Day range vs 20-day average: release-day high minus low, divided by the average high-low range of the previous 20 sessions. Baseline: the same ratio for every trading day from February 2020 to 29 October 2026.
- Release hour: the 8:00–9:00 am New York bar. Its baseline is the same hour on the previous 20 weekdays that were not NFP or CPI days.
- Reversal test: compares the 5:00 pm New York close with the pre-release price (the open of the 8:00 am bar) and the first-hour close.
- No surprise split: we have no complete, verifiable consensus forecast for each release, so we did not split results by beat or miss.
The scripts and outputs are kept with our research files, and every number on this page comes from them.
Limitations
- Small hourly sample. Twenty-five releases is enough to show the size of the release hour, not to prove a reversal rate.
- The hourly bar starts 30 minutes early. The 8:00 am bar mixes 30 pre-release minutes with the first 30 minutes of reaction; a 1-minute or 5-minute view would show the spike more sharply, but free data at that resolution covers only a few weeks.
- Futures, not spot. GC=F trades a few dollars above spot XAUUSD and rolls between contracts. Your platform’s candles and day boundaries may differ.
- No spreads. Bars show traded prices; real fills around 8:30 am can be several dollars worse.
- The backdrop matters. The 2020 pandemic, the 2022 hiking cycle and the 2025–2026 swings changed what “normal” means, which is why we compare each day with its own 20-day average.
What traders can do with this
- Size for a wider day. With the median NFP day at 1.14 times its recent average range, and some above 2 times, plan the stop first and let the position size calculator set the lot. The ATR stop-loss calculator gives a starting distance from the current range.
- Don’t assume the spike reverses. In this sample the first move reversed by the close in one release out of five.
- Don’t over-plan the next morning. The day after NFP was a normal day in our data; the risk is concentrated on the day itself.
- Check the time in your zone. The economic calendar shows every release in local time; the next report is on Friday 6 November 2026 at 13:30 GMT.
- Keep your own log. Add the surprise (consensus vs actual), your plan and your result to each row, and after a year you will have the split this page cannot give you.
When in the day gold moves most on ordinary days is on our when does gold move most page; the same study for inflation data is how gold reacts on CPI days.
Trade the next jobs report with a plan
Inside the XAUUSD Global community members write their NFP plan before 8:30 am, compare the release hour live and review the close together. No signals, just preparation and honest reviews. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month. More studies like this are on our gold data studies hub, alongside strategies tested on real data and indicator settings tested.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation news release archive (release dates)
- COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily and 1-hour data via Yahoo Finance, downloaded 30 October 2026; all ranges, ratios and percentages are our own calculations
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
How much does gold move on NFP day?
Across 77 jobs-report days from February 2020 to October 2026, gold futures’ daily range was a median 1.14 times its 20-day average, against 0.92 times on all trading days. 58% of NFP days were wider than average, compared with 41% of all days. The median close-to-close move was 0.84%, against 0.60% normally.
Does gold go up or down on NFP day?
Neither reliably. Gold closed higher on 41 of 77 NFP days (53%), almost exactly its 54% up-rate on all days in the same period. Direction depends on the surprise in payrolls, unemployment and wages against expectations, and on what else is moving markets.
How big is the 8:30 am hour on NFP day?
For the 25 releases from July 2024 to October 2026 with hourly data, the 8:00–9:00 am New York hour that contains the release had a median range of $30.1, against $17.0 for the same hour on ordinary weekdays. That is a median 2.2 times the previous 20 ordinary days. The widest was $104.5 on 4 September 2026.
Does the first NFP move usually reverse?
Less often than many traders think, in our sample. Of the 25 releases with hourly data, gold closed the New York session on the other side of the pre-release price only 5 times (20%). In 14 cases (56%) the close was beyond the first hour’s close, so the first move extended. Six partly faded but held their direction.
Is the day after NFP volatile for gold?
Not unusually. The median absolute move on the day after the 77 releases was 0.62%, close to 0.60% for all days. The next day moved in the same direction as NFP day 44 times out of 77. Unlike Fed decisions, which land late in the futures session, the jobs report’s reaction mostly happens on the day.
Why don't you split the results by surprise?
Because we do not have a public, verifiable consensus forecast for every release since 2020. Splitting by surprise with incomplete or second-hand forecasts would make the numbers look more precise than they are. The NFP tracker shows the actual data, and the playbook explains how to read the surprise on the day.