Why is gold down today? (Friday 23 October)
The move in numbers, the markets it lines up with, the calendar, positioning and the levels that would change the picture. Written automatically from delayed market data and rebuilt every hour. Education, not signals.
Updated . Latest session: Friday 23 October. Markets are closed or the new session has not started, so this is the last full picture. Rebuilt every hour from delayed market data. Education, not signals.
Gold finished the Friday session down $52.5 (-1.29%) at $4,007.9, against the 22 Oct 2026 close of $4,060.4. The session's range was $61.1, 88% of a normal day (ADR14 $69.3).
Price sits below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages (20-day $4,170.9, 50-day $4,350.1, 200-day $4,535.2). Against the pivots built from the 22 Oct 2026 session it is below P at $4,087.2, between S2 at $3,959.7 and S1 at $4,010.0. Against the prior session's range ($4,036.8 to $4,164.3) this is a lower low, with normal range.
Driver summary Today's move lines up with the dollar, silver, stocks and Bitcoin; yields are not part of the story.
Drivers scorecard latest change vs the previous close · 90-day correlation of daily returns with gold
| Market | Change | 90-day r | Today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | +0.14% | −0.48 | lines up |
| 10-year yield (TNX) | +4 bp | −0.10 | not in the story |
| S&P 500 | -0.52% | +0.33 | lines up |
| Bitcoin | -0.90% | +0.54 | lines up |
| Silver (COMEX) | -1.92% | +0.86 | lines up |
- The dollar index is up 0.14%. With a −0.48 correlation, that lines up with today's gold move.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up 4 bp (to 4.99%), but with a −0.10 correlation it has been moving largely independently of gold, so it is not part of today's story.
- The S&P 500 is down 0.52%. With a +0.33 correlation, that lines up with today's gold move.
- Bitcoin is down 0.90%. With a +0.54 correlation, that lines up with today's gold move.
- Silver is down 1.92%. With a +0.86 correlation, that lines up with today's gold move.
Today's move lines up with the dollar, silver, stocks and Bitcoin; yields are not part of the story.
"Lines up with" means the market moved the way its recent correlation with gold would suggest, given gold's direction today. Correlation is not causation: both can be reacting to the same news. Correlations from the gold correlations dashboard.
Calendar driver US releases, 24 hours either side
In the last 24 hours: US flash PMIs (October) at 13:45 UTC (09:45 New York, medium impact). Releases like these often explain a jump in the dollar and yields, which the scorecard above picks up.
Next high-impact release: FOMC rate decision (press conference 30 min later), (14:00 New York) . The biggest scheduled event for gold: rates, real yields and the dollar.
Background from the latest US prints in our data: September CPI inflation 3.7% year on year (core 2.6%), and September payrolls +29k with unemployment at 4.2%. Hot inflation keeps rate-hike pressure on the Fed, which tends to lift yields and weigh on a metal that pays no interest.
Positioning and background
Positioning. In the CFTC report dated 20 Oct 2026, large speculators (the non-commercial group, the closest public proxy for managed money) were net long 199,865 contracts, -8,014 on the week and -25,988 over four weeks while gold moved -5.34% between the two report dates. That is 50% of open interest and the 35th percentile of the last 156 weeks. Net longs shrank while gold fell over the same four weeks, a pattern consistent with longs being reduced rather than new shorts piling in. The report runs a few days behind, so it is background, not today's trigger. COT tracker.
Where the year sits. At $4,007.9, gold is -28.25% from its 52-week high of $5,586.2 (29 Jan 2026) and +2.73% from its 52-week low of $3,901.3 (28 Oct 2025). Being closer to the low than the high means the market is working through a weak stretch, where rallies tend to be questioned.
Gold/silver ratio. One ounce of gold buys 74.6 ounces of silver (+0.48 on the day): silver fell harder than gold, which points to broad metals selling rather than a gold-only story. The ratio is above 89% of the last year's readings, against a long-run average near 71. Ratio tracker.
Today's 7 gold stories
Open the digestGold's worst week since June sets up Fed week
Desk read
News hubWritten by the XAUUSD Global desk; the rest of this page is generated from data.
Why gold is moving
Gold is range-bound between $4,100 and $4,200 as markets wait for the Federal Reserve’s decision on October 28. Hot inflation keeps pressure on the Fed: September CPI came in at 3.7% and producer prices jumped 6.3%.
Rates are winning the tug of war. Conflict in the Middle East and shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz support safe-haven demand, but the same shock pushes oil and inflation up, which keeps US yields high. Since the start of 2026, the rate effect has beaten the safe-haven effect.
This week (Oct 22): the Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout, so gold is trading on oil, the dollar and yields. A Houthi drone strike near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield pushed Brent back above $110 on Thursday, and gold fell more than 1% to around $4,072–4,089, trading below the $4,076 floor that held on October 7 and 14. That happened even though the dollar index hit a three-week low near 101.45 and the 10-year yield eased to about 5.06%. CME FedWatch still prices a December hike at about 89%.
Levels traders are watching
Above
- $4,242–4,248 · 100-day moving average; a close above flips the medium-term tone
- $4,200 · Top of the current range and round number
Below
- $4,100 · Bottom of the range
- $4,073–4,076 · October floor (Oct 7 and 14 lows); traded below on Oct 22
- $4,000 · Major psychological level
- $3,940–3,960 · Area of the 2026 lows (July)
Levels are for education, not trade signals. Learn how to find them in support and resistance on XAUUSD.
What would change the picture
- If gold gets back above S1 ($4,010.0) and holds there, today's drop would look more like a pause than a break, and the prior session's low at $4,036.8 becomes the next level overhead.
- If gold loses the $4,000 round number, today's drop is extending rather than pausing, and attention moves to S2 at $3,959.7.
- If a daily close lands above the 20-day average ($4,170.9), the 20-day structure flips from below to above; price is $163.0 below it now, so until then the 20-day read stays unchanged.
Conditional descriptions of the daily structure, not targets or forecasts. Full levels on the XAUUSD analysis page.
The last 10 sessions range % = share of the 14-day average range
| Session | Close | Change | Range | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct 2026 | $4,007.9 | -52.5 -1.29% | $61.1 88% | lower low |
| Thu 22 Oct 2026 | $4,060.4 | -89.6 -2.16% | $127.5 188% | outside day |
| Wed 21 Oct 2026 | $4,150.0 | +7.4 +0.18% | $38.3 56% | sweep low |
| Tue 20 Oct 2026 | $4,142.6 | -17.5 -0.42% | $44.8 63% | narrow |
| Mon 19 Oct 2026 | $4,160.1 | -21.0 -0.50% | $55.6 77% | lower low |
| Fri 16 Oct 2026 | $4,181.1 | +11.0 +0.26% | $52.9 66% | sweep high |
| Thu 15 Oct 2026 | $4,170.1 | +62.2 +1.51% | $76.8 97% | sweep high |
| Wed 14 Oct 2026 | $4,107.9 | -69.4 -1.66% | $98.5 128% | lower low |
| Tue 13 Oct 2026 | $4,177.3 | -13.3 -0.32% | $55.1 69% | narrow |
| Mon 12 Oct 2026 | $4,190.6 | -25.7 -0.61% | $64.2 79% | sweep high |
Labels: inside day stayed within the prior range; outside day broke both sides; sweep high / low poked beyond the prior extreme and closed back inside; expansion a range above 130% of ADR14; narrow below 70%; otherwise a higher high or lower low. The latest row is today's session so far.
Education, not signals. Levels are calculated from COMEX gold futures daily data, so they can differ from your broker's XAUUSD quote by a few dollars. Nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation, a target or a forecast. Risk disclaimer.
How this page explains gold's move
Most "why is gold down today" articles are written once in the morning and never touched again. This page is rebuilt every hour from the same data our tools use, so the explanation keeps up with the market. It does three things. First, it measures the move: how far gold is from the previous close in dollars and percent, how much of a normal day's range has already been used, and where price sits against the moving averages and pivots that most gold traders have on their charts. Second, it checks the usual macro suspects (the dollar, Treasury yields, stocks, Bitcoin and silver) against gold's direction, using each market's own move and its 90-day correlation with gold. Third, it puts that next to the calendar, positioning and the stories of the day, so you can see whether the move has an obvious trigger or is drifting on flows.
Why "lines up with" and not "because of"
Correlation tells you that two markets have tended to move together or apart. It does not tell you which one moved first, or whether both are reacting to a third thing such as a CPI surprise. So the scorecard only ever says a market's move lines up with, or works against, gold's move today. A dollar that is up while gold is down, with a negative correlation of −0.48, is consistent with the textbook story; it is not proof of it. If every market lines up, the macro tape is pulling in one direction. If nothing lines up, the move is probably coming from somewhere the scorecard cannot see: physical demand, central-bank buying, an options expiry, or a headline that only touched gold.
Reading the range number
The 14-day average daily range is currently $69.3. "Used 88% of a normal day" compares today's high-to-low with that average. A reading near or above 100% means gold has already done a full day's work; after that, many traders treat fresh breakouts with more caution and size down. A reading of 30% to 50% late in the London session means the day has been quiet, and a high-impact US release can easily change that. The gold volatility tracker shows how this average has moved over recent weeks.
Levels, not predictions
The "what would change the picture" lines are conditional on purpose. Price levels are decision points that many participants watch, which is exactly why they matter, but none of them knows what gold does next. Each line describes what a move through a level would mean for the structure on the daily chart, nothing more. The full set of pivots, moving averages and swing levels is on the XAUUSD analysis page, which uses the same calculations.
Where the numbers come from
Gold and silver prices are COMEX futures, which track spot XAUUSD closely but usually sit a few dollars above it. The dollar index, the 10-year yield, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin are public daily closes; a market that has not printed a close for gold's session yet (US stocks and yields before New York opens, for example) is shown but left out of the summary. Correlations are Pearson correlations of daily returns over 90 trading days. Positioning is the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report. US inflation and jobs figures come from the BLS. The desk read is written by our team and updated during the week.
Frequently asked questions
Why did gold drop today?
On 23 Oct 2026 gold is down -52.5 (-1.29%). Today’s move lines up with the dollar, silver, stocks and Bitcoin; yields are not part of the story. When gold falls, the usual suspects are a firmer dollar, higher real yields, hot US data that raises rate-hike odds, or profit-taking after a run. The scorecard on this page checks the first two against today’s numbers every hour; the desk read covers the headlines.
Why is gold going up today?
On up days the pattern is usually the mirror image: a softer dollar, falling yields, safe-haven demand after a geopolitical shock, central-bank or ETF buying, or soft US data. Today the page reads gold as down, lining up most closely with the dollar. Check the drivers scorecard and the calendar section for the current picture.
Does gold go up when the dollar falls?
More often than not, but far from always. Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Over the last 90 trading days the correlation between gold’s and the dollar index’s daily returns has been −0.48 (weak), so plenty of days break the rule. Read the rolling history on the gold correlations dashboard.
What time does gold move the most?
In the last 59 trading days of hourly data, gold’s busiest UTC hours were 12:00, 13:00, 14:00, with the top hour averaging about $30 of range against roughly $17 for an average hour. That cluster is the London–New York overlap, when US data lands at 08:30 New York (12:30 or 13:30 UTC depending on daylight saving). The quietest stretch is usually late New York into the early Asian session. See the gold market hours tool for the full map in your time zone.
Is today's move a buy?
This page does not give buy or sell advice. It explains which markets today’s move lines up with and where price sits against the levels many traders watch. Whether any move suits you depends on your own plan, time frame and risk limits. Size every position from your stop with the position size calculator and read our risk management guide. Education, not signals.
How often is this page updated?
Every hour. The site re-fetches market data and rebuilds this page hourly, and the headline price, change and range refresh in your browser from the same data file when you open it. The current data stamp is 2026-10-24 06:18 UTC. Correlations, positioning and the history table update with the same rebuild; the desk read is written by hand.