Gold vs Real Yields and the Dollar
Gold charted against the 10-year real yield and the broad US dollar, with the latest readings and one-year correlations. Updated automatically.
Gold vs 10-year real yield (weekly, yield axis inverted)
Gold vs broad US dollar (weekly, dollar axis inverted)
Source: FRED (DFII10, DTWEXBGS); COMEX gold futures. Data updated . Updates automatically several times a day.
Gold's two biggest macro drivers
As of 2026-10-15, the 10-year real yield was 2.78% and the broad dollar index was 121.6 (as of 2026-10-09). Over the last year, weekly gold changes had a correlation of -0.45 with real-yield changes and -0.44 with dollar changes.
Most of the big moves in gold over the past two decades line up with changes in real interest rates and the US dollar. The charts invert the yield and dollar axes so that, when the classic relationship holds, the lines move together.
How to use these charts
- Agreement: gold rising while real yields and the dollar fall is the "textbook" backdrop.
- Divergence: gold rising while real yields rise suggests another driver, such as central bank buying or safe-haven demand.
- Events: big shifts usually happen around CPI, jobs reports and Fed meetings.
For the full picture of what drives gold, read what moves gold prices and our gold price forecast 2027.
Frequently asked questions
Why do real yields matter for gold?
A real yield is the interest rate after inflation, shown here by the 10-year TIPS yield. Gold pays no interest, so when real yields rise, holding gold costs more in missed income, and gold has often struggled. When real yields fall, gold has often done better. The link is strong over long periods but can break for months, for example when central banks are buying heavily.
Why does the US dollar affect gold?
Gold is priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can reduce demand, and vice versa. That is why gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions.
What does the correlation number mean?
It measures how weekly changes in gold and the other series moved together over about the last year, from −1 (always opposite) to +1 (always together). A value near 0 means little relationship recently. Correlations change over time, so treat them as a description of the past, not a forecast.
Which dollar index is used here?
The Federal Reserve’s broad trade-weighted US dollar index (DTWEXBGS), published on FRED. It is broader than the popular DXY, which is weighted mainly to the euro, but both usually move in the same direction.
How often is this data updated?
FRED publishes the TIPS yield every business day and the broad dollar index weekly with daily values. This page refreshes automatically several times a day.
Is the gold vs real yields relationship broken?
In some recent periods gold rose even while real yields were high, which many analysts link to strong central bank buying and geopolitical demand. That is a good reminder that no single driver explains gold all the time.
Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Check your own broker's contract specification, margin rules and costs. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.