US CPI and Gold
The latest US inflation numbers next to the gold price, with the next CPI release in your time zone. Updated automatically from official data.
Next US CPI release: · full calendar
US inflation vs gold price (last 3 years)
Last 12 months
| Month | CPI y/y | Core y/y | CPI m/m | Gold change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 3.7% | 2.6% | +0.6% | -6.58% |
| Aug 2026 | 3.4% | 2.5% | +0.3% | +9.12% |
| Jul 2026 | 3.4% | 2.5% | -0.0% | +1.70% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.5% | 2.6% | -0.3% | -12.07% |
| May 2026 | 4.2% | 2.9% | +0.6% | -0.79% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.8% | 2.8% | +0.8% | -0.39% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.3% | 2.6% | +1.1% | -11.44% |
| Feb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% | +0.5% | +10.60% |
| Jan 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% | +0.4% | +9.31% |
| Dec 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% | -0.0% | +2.03% |
| Nov 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% | -0.2% | +6.47% |
| Sep 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.2% | +10.16% |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI); COMEX gold futures. Data updated . Updates automatically several times a day.
Why gold traders watch CPI
Gold pays no interest, so it competes with assets that do. CPI changes what markets expect the Federal Reserve to do with interest rates, and that moves real yields and the US dollar, gold's two biggest short-term drivers. Track both on our gold vs real yields and dollar page.
The surprise matters more than the number
Markets price in a forecast before the release. If CPI comes in at 3.2% and the forecast was 3.2%, gold may barely react. If it comes in at 3.5%, the surprise can move gold sharply. The table above shows the actual numbers; check the consensus forecast on your calendar before the release.
A simple CPI-day checklist
- Know the release time in your time zone (news calendar).
- Know the forecast for headline and core, month over month and year over year.
- Decide before the release: flat, reduced size, or a planned setup after the first move.
- Expect wider spreads and slippage for a few minutes. Size with the position size calculator.
Learn the full approach in the gold news trading strategy lesson of the Gold Trading Academy.
Frequently asked questions
How does CPI affect gold?
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) measures US inflation. A hotter-than-expected CPI can push Treasury yields and the dollar up as markets expect the Fed to keep rates higher, which often pressures gold in the short term. Over longer periods, persistent inflation is one reason investors hold gold. The reaction depends on the surprise versus expectations, not the number alone.
What time is US CPI released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually releases CPI at 8:30 am US Eastern time, around the middle of the month. Our news calendar shows the next date in your local time.
What is the difference between headline and core CPI?
Headline CPI includes everything. Core CPI excludes food and energy, which are volatile. Markets and the Fed often watch core more closely as a guide to underlying inflation.
Why does gold sometimes rise when inflation falls?
Because gold reacts to real interest rates and the dollar. Lower inflation can lead markets to expect rate cuts, which can lower yields and the dollar and support gold. It is the change in rate expectations that matters most.
Where does this data come from?
CPI figures come from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics public API (series CUUR0000SA0 and CUUR0000SA0L1E, not seasonally adjusted). Gold monthly changes use COMEX gold futures closes.
Should I trade the CPI release?
CPI releases can move gold $20 to $60 or more in minutes, with wide spreads and slippage. Many traders stay flat or cut size into the release. Read our news trading guide before trying it.
Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Check your own broker's contract specification, margin rules and costs. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.