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Trading Expectancy Calculator

Enter your win rate and average win and loss to get expectancy per trade and per month, the breakeven win rate, profit factor and the real odds of a losing streak.

Example values are hypothetical. Results update as you type and your last inputs are remembered on this device.

Expectancy per trade—
Expectancy in $ per trade
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Per month
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Breakeven win rate
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Profit factor
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Next 5 trades all lose
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At least 5 losses in a row this month
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At least 5 in a row in 100 trades
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What trading expectancy means

Expectancy is the average result per trade over many trades. It combines your win rate with the size of your average win and loss, so it answers the real question: does this method make money on average, and how much? Enter the numbers from your journal or backtest in R multiples or in dollars. The calculator returns expectancy per trade and per month, the breakeven win rate, the profit factor and the odds of losing streaks.

How to use it

  1. Choose R multiples (average loss usually 1R) or dollars.
  2. Enter your win rate and average win and loss from at least several dozen trades. Small samples mislead.
  3. Add your risk per trade in dollars (R mode) and trades per month to see money per month.
  4. Pick a losing streak length to see how likely it is in your next trades, this month and over 100 trades.

The formulas

  • Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss
  • In R = expectancy ÷ average loss
  • Breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
  • Profit factor = (win rate × average win) ÷ (loss rate × average loss)
  • Next k trades all lose = loss ratek; the chance of at least one run of k losses within n trades is worked out exactly, trade by trade

Worked examples

Example 1: a 2R method. Win rate 45%, average win 2R, average loss 1R. Expectancy = 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade. At $100 risk that is $35.00 a trade, and over 20 trades a month 7.0R or $700. Breakeven win rate: 1 ÷ 3 = 33.3%. The chance of the next five trades all losing is 0.555 = 5.03%, but the chance of at least one run of five losses somewhere in a 20-trade month is 35.6%, and over 100 trades it is 92.0%. Even eight in a row has a 30.7% chance over 100 trades.

Example 2: a high win rate that loses. Win rate 60%, average win 0.8R, average loss 1R: 0.6 × 0.8 − 0.4 × 1 = +0.08R. Barely positive, and the breakeven win rate is 55.6%. A little extra spread or one moved stop turns it negative.

Example 3: in dollars. Win rate 55%, average win $180, average loss $150: 0.55 × 180 − 0.45 × 150 = $31.50 per trade, which is 0.21R when the average loss is treated as 1R.

Common mistakes

  • Judging a method by win rate alone. A 70% win rate with small wins and large losses can lose money. A 35% win rate with 3R winners can make money.
  • Too few trades. Twenty trades can show almost any win rate by luck. Collect a larger sample before trusting the number.
  • Leaving out costs. Use results after spread, commission and swap.
  • Being surprised by streaks. A 45% win rate makes runs of five or more losses likely over a few dozen trades. Plan your risk around that, with the drawdown recovery calculator.

From expectancy to a plan

Positive expectancy is the starting point, not the finish. It has to survive costs, a realistic number of trades and the losing streaks it brings. Read the trading maths and expectancy lesson and XAUUSD risk management, keep the numbers in a trading journal, and plan each trade's R with the risk reward calculator.

Before you plug a strategy into any calculator, check how it actually behaved on gold: our gold trading strategies, tested and gold indicator settings, tested hubs show real XAUUSD results with costs, including the losing streaks.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate trading expectancy?

Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. With a 45% win rate, 2R average win and 1R average loss: 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade.

What is a good expectancy for gold trading?

Any expectancy that stays clearly positive after spread, commission and swap, over a large sample of trades, is a starting point. There is no standard good figure; small positive numbers are common, and big ones from small samples are usually luck.

What is the breakeven win rate?

The win rate at which expectancy is zero: average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). With 2R wins and 1R losses it is 33.3%; with 1R wins and 1R losses it is 50%.

How likely is a losing streak?

The chance that the next k trades all lose is (loss rate)^k. But over many trades, a run of k losses somewhere is much more likely. At a 45% win rate, the chance of at least five losses in a row somewhere in 100 trades is about 92%.

What is the difference between expectancy and profit factor?

Expectancy is the average result per trade in R or dollars. Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. A profit factor above 1 means positive expectancy.

Can I use dollars instead of R?

Yes. Switch the first field to dollars and enter your average winning and losing trade. The calculator converts the result into R by treating the average loss as 1R.

Keep learning

Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Check your own broker's contract specification, margin rules and costs. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.