The short answer
Tonight’s Fed decision is expected to be a hold at 3.75–4.00%. On Tuesday afternoon the CME FedWatch tool put the probability of a hold at 90.6%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December at 75.1%, Fox Business reported. So the main question for XAUUSD is not what the Fed does tonight but whether it makes a December hike look more or less likely.
A message that makes December look close to certain would tend to support yields and the dollar and weigh on gold. A message that leaves December open, or sounds patient, could push the odds down and give gold some relief. The rest of this guide explains the numbers, the phrases to watch and how each path lines up with the levels on our map. For tonight’s exact times in your zone, see Fed decision time today.
Where the December odds come from
Different outlets quoted different December figures this week. That is not a contradiction: rate-futures pricing changes through the day, and some outlets use different tools.
| Reading | December hike odds | When | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME FedWatch | 75.1% (25 bp hike) | Tue 27 Oct, article at 1:56 pm EDT | Fox Business |
| CME FedWatch | 71% | Mon 26 Oct, article at 4:10 pm EDT | CBS News |
| “Markets”, tool not named | 84.4% | Tue 27 Oct, 23:18 GMT | FXStreet |
| Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker | 86.86% chance of a hike by 16 December | Update dated 23 Oct | Investing.com |
Two notes. First, the Atlanta Fed figure measures something different: it is derived from options on SOFR futures and covers a three-month window starting 16 December, not the 8–9 December meeting itself, as the Investing.com analysis explains. Second, the FedWatch figure itself moved: Fox Business reported the hold probability for tonight at 90.6%, up from 84.5% a week earlier and 35.8% a month earlier, as markets stepped back from an October move.
The practical takeaway: markets price a December hike as more likely than not, somewhere in the 70s to mid-80s depending on the reading. Tonight’s job for traders is to see which way the Fed pushes that number. Our guide to reading CME FedWatch shows how to check it yourself after the press conference.
Why December matters so much for gold right now
Gold pays no interest, so it reacts to the expected path of real yields and the dollar. Both are already firm going into tonight. In the Yahoo Finance data behind our real yields and dollar tracker, the 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday 27 October at 4.993% and the ICE dollar index at 102.32, its highest close since 14 October.
The background explains why the market leans towards another hike:
| Date | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75%; three officials object to the statement’s “easing bias” | Federal Reserve |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75%, vote 9–3; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan vote for a hike | Federal Reserve |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Hike to 3.75–4.00%, vote 12–0; the Fed’s first hike since 2023 | Federal Reserve |
| Mid-Oct 2026 | September CPI up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year | Fox Business, CBS News |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations at 5.8%, “elevated” | The Conference Board |
CBS News also noted that the Fed’s September projections signalled the committee expected to raise rates again later this year. With no new projections tonight, the statement and press conference are the only way for the Fed to confirm or soften that message before December. Our longer history of how gold behaves when the Fed raises rates puts this in context: hiking cycles have not always been bad for gold over months, but the surprise around each decision usually decides the short-term move.
Words and phrases traders will scan for
Traders compare tonight’s statement line by line with the September one. The September statement said that “today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” Any change from that framing will be read as a signal. The categories below are what traders typically scan; the wording in the right-hand column is illustrative, not a quote from the Fed.
In the statement (2:00 pm New York, 18:00 GMT)
| What to look for | Reads as more hawkish (December more likely) | Reads as less hawkish (December less certain) |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation description | Inflation described as having moved up or remaining elevated, energy named as a pressure | Softer wording, or language that inflation pressures are easing |
| Forward guidance | Language that keeps a bias towards further firming | Language about assessing the effects of the September hike, or “the extent of any additional adjustments” |
| Risks | Upside inflation risks emphasised | Risks described as more balanced, or growth risks given more weight |
| Vote | Dissents in favour of a hike tonight | No dissents, or dissents against further tightening |
The vote is easy to miss and often matters. In July, three officials voted for a hike two months before the committee delivered one. A split vote tonight would tell the market how divided the committee is going into December.
In the press conference (2:30 pm New York, 18:30 GMT)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s answers can matter more than the statement, especially on a night without a dot plot. Traders will listen for:
- Whether December is described as “live” or whether the Chair avoids committing.
- How the next move is tied to data: specific mention of the PCE, jobs or CPI reports before December.
- Oil and second-round effects: whether higher energy prices are treated as a one-off or as a risk to inflation expectations.
- “Restrictive enough”: any suggestion that rates are already high enough would likely be read as less hawkish.
- The tone of repeated questions: if several reporters ask about December and get the same answer, that answer usually becomes the market’s headline.
The glossary explains hawkish and dovish in more detail.
Reference levels from our analysis data
These levels come from the same COMEX gold futures daily data that drives our XAUUSD analysis page and weekly gold forecast, as of 28 October 2026 at 04:50 UTC, when gold futures were at $4,054.5. Daily pivots are built from Tuesday’s bar (high $4,079.4, low $4,001.6, close $4,074.6) and change every session; the weekly levels are built from last week’s high, low and close. Spot XAUUSD at your platform will differ by a few dollars.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day average | $4,325.9 | Moving average |
| Weekly R1 | $4,149.7 | Weekly pivot |
| 20-day average | $4,143.5 | Moving average |
| Daily R2 | $4,129.7 | Daily pivot |
| Top of weekly statistical band | $4,110.2 | Last weekly close + half the 12-week typical range |
| Daily R1 | $4,102.1 | Daily pivot |
| Weekly pivot | $4,069.4 | Weekly pivot |
| Daily pivot | $4,051.9 | Daily pivot |
| Daily S1 | $4,024.3 | Daily pivot |
| Round number | $4,000.0 | Psychological level |
| Daily S2 | $3,974.1 | Daily pivot |
| Daily S3 | $3,946.5 | Daily pivot |
| Weekly S1 | $3,927.6 | Weekly pivot |
| Bottom of weekly statistical band / 52-week low | $3,905.7 / $3,901.3 | Band; 52-week low set 28 Oct 2025 |
Two things to note. The $4,143–4,150 area is a cluster where the 20-day average and weekly R1 meet. Below $4,000, the $3,928–3,947 area combines daily S3 and weekly S1, with the bottom of the band and the 52-week low just underneath. The 14-day average daily range is $66.1 and the 20-day is $69.7; on the last 14 Fed days, the decision-day range was a median 1.12 times the 20-day average, as our Fed-day history shows.
Today’s live daily levels are rebuilt from the latest data each time the site updates:
Last price in our data: $4,047.5 (COMEX gold futures, updated 2026-10-28 05:49 UTC, delayed; pivots from the 27 Oct 2026 session). Gold is below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages.
| Level | Type | Price | Last price vs level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-day SMA | Average | $4,528.7 | -481.2 |
| 50-day SMA | Average | $4,325.9 | -278.4 |
| Prior week high | Swing | $4,211.2 | -163.7 |
| 20-day SMA | Average | $4,143.5 | -96.0 |
| R2 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,129.7 | -82.2 |
| R1 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,102.1 | -54.6 |
| Daily pivot | Pivot | $4,051.9 | -4.4 |
| 4,050 | Round number | $4,050.0 | -2.5 |
| S1 (classic pivot) | Support | $4,024.3 | +23.2 |
| 4,000 | Round number | $4,000.0 | +47.5 |
| Prior week low | Swing | $3,989.1 | +58.4 |
| S2 (classic pivot) | Support | $3,974.1 | +73.4 |
These are reference levels calculated from price data, not trade signals. The XAUUSD analysis page recalculates them every hour with Fibonacci pivots and ADR, and the XAUUSD technical analysis page adds RSI, MACD and moving-average signals.
If/then paths for XAUUSD
None of these is a prediction or a trade recommendation. They describe how the usual channels (real yields and the dollar) would work in each case, so you can plan before the statement instead of reacting to it. Fed nights bring wide spreads and fast moves, and a well-planned trade can still lose.
If the Fed holds and clearly signals December (hawkish hold: inflation language firmer, a bias towards further firming, hike dissents, or a Chair who calls December live), December odds would likely rise from the 70s–80s towards certainty. If yields and the dollar firm with them, gold would be trading against that headwind. Daily S1 at $4,024.3 and the $4,000 round number are the first areas on the map, then daily S2 at $3,974.1 and the $3,928–3,947 cluster.
If the Fed holds and says little new (statement close to September’s, no strong steer on December), the odds may barely move. Gold could stay rotating around the daily pivot ($4,051.9) and weekly pivot ($4,069.4), and the bigger test passes to Thursday’s PCE inflation report at 12:30 GMT.
If the Fed holds and sounds more patient (language about assessing the September hike, more balanced risks, a Chair who stresses waiting for data), December odds could fall. If yields and the dollar ease, the first levels above are daily R1 at $4,102.1 and the top of the weekly band at $4,110.2, then daily R2 at $4,129.7 and the $4,143–4,150 cluster.
If the Fed hikes tonight, that would be a large surprise against the roughly 6.6–9% odds markets gave it on Tuesday. The September hike day produced a $139.8 range in gold futures, so expect very wide spreads and fast two-way moves before the market settles.
If the first move reverses during the press conference, treat the statement reaction as information, not as the direction of the night. This happens often, which is why the FOMC day gold playbook recommends deciding in advance whether you will trade the settled reaction or stand aside.
What comes between tonight and 9 December
Tonight sets the tone; the data decides December. The main US releases before the next decision, all in GMT:
| Date | Release | GMT | Why it matters for December |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct | Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation | 12:30 | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge |
| Fri 6 Nov | October jobs report | 13:30 | Labour market strength or cooling |
| Tue 10 Nov | October CPI | 13:30 | Headline inflation after September’s 3.7% |
| Wed 25 Nov | October PCE inflation | 13:30 | Last PCE before the meeting |
| Fri 4 Dec | November jobs report | 13:30 | Last jobs report before the decision |
| Wed 9 Dec | FOMC decision with projections and dot plot | 19:00 | The decision itself |
Times after 1 November are one hour later in GMT because US clocks go back. Our economic calendar for gold traders lists every date, and the 28 October preview covers how gold set up into tonight.
A simple routine for tonight
- Write down the December odds before 18:00 GMT so you can see how far the Fed moved them.
- Mark the levels above and the current ADR on your chart.
- Read the statement against September’s, not in isolation.
- Watch yields and the dollar alongside gold. If gold moves and they do not, the move may be positioning rather than the news.
- Check FedWatch again after the press conference. The change in December odds is the cleanest summary of what the Fed said.
- Size from the stop. The position size calculator shows how much smaller a position needs to be when the stop has to be wider.
Trade the Fed together
Reading a Fed statement line by line is easier with other traders doing the same. In the XAUUSD Global community, members share their plan before the statement, compare notes on the wording and the press conference as they happen, and review the reaction together afterwards. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, cancel any time. Join the community and trade tonight’s decision with us.
Sources
- Fox Business: Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady, 27 Oct 2026 (FedWatch 90.6% hold, 75.1% December hike; September CPI)
- CBS News: Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate move this week, 26 Oct 2026 (FedWatch 71%; September projections)
- FXStreet: Gold rises above $4,050 ahead of Fed rate decision, 27 Oct 2026 (84.4% December, 6.6% tonight)
- FXStreet: Gold reclaims $4,060 as oil retreats ahead of crucial Fed decision, 27 Oct 2026 (9% chance of a hike tonight in money markets)
- Investing.com: Atlanta Fed tracker puts December rate hike odds at nearly 87%
- Federal Reserve statements: 29 April 2026, 29 July 2026, 16 September 2026; FOMC calendar
- The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index, October 2026
- Levels, yields and dollar index: our own calculations from Yahoo Finance daily data (GC=F, ^TNX, DX-Y.NYB) as used on the XAUUSD analysis page and gold forecast
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?
On Tuesday 27 October, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 75.1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the mid-December meeting, according to Fox Business. Other readings taken at different times ranged from 71% (CBS News, 26 October) to 84.4% (FXStreet, late on 27 October). The odds move with every data release and Fed comment, so check FedWatch for the current figure.
Will the Fed raise rates today, 28 October 2026?
Markets do not expect it. FedWatch showed a 90.6% probability of a hold at 3.75–4.00% on Tuesday afternoon. A hike tonight would be a large surprise, which is why the reaction is more likely to come from what the Fed says about December than from the decision itself.
How does a December rate hike affect gold?
Gold pays no interest, so higher expected US rates tend to lift real yields and the dollar, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. When the market becomes more certain of a hike, that usually weighs on gold for a while; when hike odds fall, gold often gets relief. The effect depends on the surprise relative to what is already priced.
What words in the Fed statement matter most for gold?
Traders compare the new statement with the last one and look for changes in how inflation is described, whether the committee keeps a bias towards further firming, any mention of energy prices, and how the vote splits. In the press conference they listen for whether the Chair calls December ‘live’, ties the next move to coming data, or suggests rates are already high enough.
Is there a dot plot at tonight's Fed meeting?
No. The Federal Reserve’s calendar shows no Summary of Economic Projections for the October 2026 meeting. The next dot plot comes with the 9 December decision, which makes tonight’s statement wording and press conference the main sources of guidance.
Are the price levels in this article targets?
No. They are mechanical reference points calculated from COMEX gold futures daily data: pivot points, a statistical weekly band and moving averages. They show where many traders look for reactions, not where price will go. Recheck them on the live analysis page, because daily pivots change every session.