Six more gold strategies tested on real data
Fixed rules, daily COMEX gold bars since 2008, costs included, and a price-change baseline for honest comparison.
| Strategy and rules | Trades | Win rate | Average trade | Profit factor | Sum of trade returns | Worst drawdown (summed) | Worst losing streak | Trades per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(2) pullback in an uptrend Long when close is above the 200-day average and 2-day RSI is below 10; exit when close is above the 5-day average (max 30 days) | 299 | 69% | +0.25% | 1.42 | +74% | -35% | 6 | 16.7 |
| Donchian 55/20 trend following Long on a close above the 55-day high, short below the 55-day low; exit on the 20-day opposite channel | 66 | 39% | -0.22% | 0.93 | -15% | -70% | 5 | 3.7 |
| Monday gap fade Gap of at least 0.25 x ATR(14) from Friday's close; fade it with a target at Friday's close and a stop one gap size beyond; exit at the close | 302 | 49% | -0.02% | 0.93 | -6% | -16% | 11 | 16.9 |
| Weekend hold (Friday close to Monday open) Buy Friday's close and sell Monday's open, every week | 779 | 55% | +0.08% | 1.62 | +65% | -10% | 11 | 43.5 |
| 50-day trend, calm volatility only Long above the 50-day average while gold's 20-day realised volatility is at or below its trailing 1-year median | 128 | 33% | +0.47% | 1.54 | +60% | -26% | 13 | 7.1 |
| 50-day trend, high volatility only Same rule, but only while 20-day realised volatility is above its trailing 1-year median | 140 | 44% | +0.22% | 1.26 | +31% | -35% | 8 | 7.8 |
Trade returns are in percent of the entry price after $0.30/oz costs and are added up (not compounded) so the drawdown is the fall in the running total. The plain gold price change over the same days: +351% (price change), with a worst fall of -44% from a price peak. The two drawdown figures are measured differently, so use the strategy columns to compare strategies with each other and the baseline only for context.
How to read these tests
These six tests add to the 14 strategies already tested. The rules were fixed in advance and never tuned: no parameter search, no cherry-picked years. They use daily COMEX gold futures bars from January 2008 to 2026-11-13, which covers the 2008 crash, the 2011 top, the long 2013 to 2018 range and the bull run since 2019. Data: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily bars via Yahoo Finance.
- Compare with the simple price change over the same period. Gold rose strongly over this period, so almost any long-only rule looks good. A strategy has to beat the baseline after its own costs and drawdowns to matter.
- Sample size matters. The Monday gap fade has 302 trades; fewer than about 100 trades means the result can be luck.
- The weekend hold is a baseline, not a recommendation. It measures what the weekend itself paid, which is the risk a swing trader accepts by not closing on Friday.
- Daily bars hide detail. Real fills inside a day, spreads on your account and slippage will differ. Use the Strategy Lab to test your own variations on the same data.
Data from 2008-01-02 to 2026-11-13 (4,515 daily bars), recomputed every time the site is built.
What the tests cannot tell you
Past results do not predict future ones. A rule that worked from 2008 to 2026 can fail in a long sideways range like 2013 to 2018. Nothing here is a signal or a recommendation. Read backtesting gold with free data and the math of expectancy before trusting any number.
Frequently asked questions
Do these tests include costs?
Yes. Each trade pays $0.30 per ounce as a round-trip cost, deducted from the trade return. Your real costs depend on your account and may be higher.
Why compare with the plain price change?
Gold rose a lot over the period. Without that comparison a simple long-only rule looks better than it is.
Are these trading signals?
No. They are fixed-rule historical tests for education. Past results do not predict future prices.
Can I test my own version?
Yes, in the free Strategy Lab, which runs on the same gold data in your browser.
Educational content only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.