Gold vs Liquidity
Gold next to the Fed balance sheet, M2 money supply, the reverse repo and the Treasury cash account, with rolling correlations and a lead-lag table, explained in plain words.
Data as of · next update within the week · When each dataset updates
Data updated 2026-11-10. Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) series WALCL, WDTGAL, RRPONTSYD and M2SL; gold from COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily closes via Yahoo Finance.
Fed balance sheet (total assets) (WALCL)
Everything the US central bank owns, mostly Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds. It grows when the Fed buys bonds (quantitative easing, QE) and shrinks when it lets them run off (quantitative tightening, QT). Published every Thursday for the Wednesday.
Latest: $6,748 billion (2026-11-04). Gold that week: $4,073.
● gold (COMEX GC=F) ● WALCL, each on its own scale, last 5 years.
Rolling 52-week correlation of changes
Correlation of gold's weekly % change with the percentage change of WALCL, over a moving 52-week window. Latest -0.00 (2026-11-04); range -0.64 (2020-03-18) to +0.47 (2018-11-07). Whole sample since 2015-01-07: +0.04 (n = 617).
Lead-lag table: does it lead or follow gold?
| Lag | WALCL leads gold | Gold leads WALCL | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 weeks | +0.04 | +0.04 | 617 |
| 1 weeks | +0.05 | -0.01 | 616 |
| 2 weeks | +0.02 | -0.06 | 615 |
| 4 weeks | +0.01 | +0.01 | 613 |
| 8 weeks | +0.04 | -0.00 | 609 |
| 12 weeks | +0.03 | +0.02 | 605 |
Each cell: correlation of the two series' changes with one shifted by the lag. Values near 0 mean no stable link at that lag. With about 617 observations, values between roughly −0.08 and +0.08 are within normal noise.
M2 money supply (M2SL)
All cash, current accounts, savings deposits and money-market funds held by US households and firms. Monthly, published about four weeks after the month ends.
Latest: $23,414 billion (2026-09). Gold that month: $4,187.
● gold (COMEX GC=F) ● M2SL, each on its own scale, last 5 years.
Rolling 12-month correlation of changes
Correlation of gold's monthly % change with the percentage change of M2SL, over a moving 12-month window. Latest +0.13 (2026-09); range -0.52 (2023-03) to +0.73 (2017-11). Whole sample since 2015-01: +0.08 (n = 140).
Lead-lag table: does it lead or follow gold?
| Lag | M2SL leads gold | Gold leads M2SL | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 months | +0.08 | +0.08 | 140 |
| 1 months | +0.05 | +0.05 | 139 |
| 2 months | +0.11 | -0.04 | 138 |
| 3 months | +0.11 | +0.03 | 137 |
Each cell: correlation of the two series' changes with one shifted by the lag. Values near 0 mean no stable link at that lag. With about 140 observations, values between roughly −0.17 and +0.17 are within normal noise.
Overnight reverse repo (RRP) (RRPONTSYD)
Money that funds and banks park overnight at the Fed. A big RRP balance is cash sitting on the side; when it falls, that cash usually moves into Treasury bills and markets. Daily; we use the last value of each week.
Latest: $0 billion (2026-11-04). Gold that week: $4,073.
● gold (COMEX GC=F) ● RRPONTSYD, each on its own scale, last 5 years.
Rolling 52-week correlation of changes
Correlation of gold's weekly % change with the change in $ billions of RRPONTSYD, over a moving 52-week window. Latest -0.17 (2026-11-04); range -0.40 (2021-03-24) to +0.29 (2020-03-25). Whole sample since 2015-01-07: -0.14 (n = 617).
Lead-lag table: does it lead or follow gold?
| Lag | RRPONTSYD leads gold | Gold leads RRPONTSYD | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 weeks | -0.14 | -0.14 | 617 |
| 1 weeks | -0.00 | +0.00 | 616 |
| 2 weeks | +0.00 | -0.03 | 615 |
| 4 weeks | +0.01 | +0.02 | 613 |
| 8 weeks | -0.05 | -0.05 | 609 |
| 12 weeks | -0.02 | -0.00 | 605 |
Each cell: correlation of the two series' changes with one shifted by the lag. Values near 0 mean no stable link at that lag. With about 617 observations, values between roughly −0.08 and +0.08 are within normal noise.
Treasury General Account (TGA) (WDTGAL)
The US government's bank account at the Fed. When the Treasury fills it (by selling more bills), cash leaves banks and markets; when it spends it down, cash flows back in. Weekly.
Latest: $936 billion (2026-11-04). Gold that week: $4,073.
● gold (COMEX GC=F) ● WDTGAL, each on its own scale, last 5 years.
Rolling 52-week correlation of changes
Correlation of gold's weekly % change with the change in $ billions of WDTGAL, over a moving 52-week window. Latest +0.08 (2026-11-04); range -0.43 (2016-09-14) to +0.33 (2025-12-17). Whole sample since 2015-01-07: +0.03 (n = 617).
Lead-lag table: does it lead or follow gold?
| Lag | WDTGAL leads gold | Gold leads WDTGAL | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 weeks | +0.03 | +0.03 | 617 |
| 1 weeks | -0.00 | -0.00 | 616 |
| 2 weeks | +0.01 | +0.17 | 615 |
| 4 weeks | -0.02 | -0.01 | 613 |
| 8 weeks | -0.02 | +0.04 | 609 |
| 12 weeks | -0.03 | -0.02 | 605 |
Each cell: correlation of the two series' changes with one shifted by the lag. Values near 0 mean no stable link at that lag. With about 617 observations, values between roughly −0.08 and +0.08 are within normal noise.
What "liquidity" means and why gold traders watch it
Liquidity is how much money is moving around the financial system. When the Fed buys bonds, it pays with new money, so there is more cash looking for a home. Some people expect that to push up assets like gold. When the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, or the US Treasury pulls cash into its account, the opposite can happen.
This board puts four of those measures next to the gold price and checks, with real numbers, how closely they have moved together.
Example from the data: the Fed's balance sheet was $6,748 billion on 2026-11-04. Over the whole sample since 2015-01-07, the correlation between weekly changes in the balance sheet and in gold is +0.04 (n = 617). A number that close to zero means week-to-week moves in the balance sheet have not told you much about gold's next move on their own.
How to read the correlation
- +1 means the two always moved the same way; −1 means always opposite; 0 means no link.
- The rolling line shows that the link changes over time. Periods where it falls near zero or turns negative are the times the popular story "more money = higher gold" did not hold.
- Correlation is not cause. Gold reacts to many things at once: real yields, the dollar, central-bank buying, fear. See gold vs real yields and the dollar and gold correlations.
When each series is published: data update schedule.
Frequently asked questions
Does M2 money supply move gold?
Over long periods both have risen, but month to month the link is weak and unstable. The M2 section shows the rolling correlation and the lead-lag table with the sample size.
Does the Fed balance sheet affect gold?
It changes how much money is in the system, which is one of many forces on gold. The data on this page shows how closely weekly changes have actually moved with gold since 2015.
What is the reverse repo (RRP)?
A Fed facility where money-market funds and banks park cash overnight. Falling RRP balances usually mean that cash has moved into Treasury bills and markets.
What is the Treasury General Account?
The US government’s account at the Fed. When it rises, cash is pulled out of the banking system; when it falls, cash goes back in.
Where does the data come from?
FRED, the free database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series WALCL, WDTGAL, RRPONTSYD, M2SL), and COMEX gold futures closes via Yahoo Finance.
Educational tool only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Check your own broker's contract specification, margin rules and costs. Past data does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.