Event volatility: how much bigger is the release hour?
CPI, the jobs report, Fed decisions and the other US releases: how many times a normal hour gold's release hour runs, how long until it calms down, and how often the first move reverses. Real hourly data, sample size on every row.
Release hour vs a normal hour, by release
| Release | n | Release hour vs normal (median) | 1 in 10 releases | Median release-hour range | Calm-down time (median) | Reversal in next 3 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI inflation | 21 | 2.2× | 4.7× | $34.5 | 2 h | 43% (n 21) |
| US jobs report (NFP) | 19 | 2.7× | 5.1× | $41.6 | 4 h | 32% (n 19) |
| FOMC rate decision | 20 | 4.7× | 10.2× | $34.0 | 5 h | 20% (n 20) |
| FOMC minutes | 18 | 2.0× | 4.6× | $14.1 | 6 h | 17% (n 18) |
| US weekly jobless claims | 15 | 1.5× | 3.1× | $23.1 | 2 h | 53% (n 15) |
| US retail sales | 16 | 1.5× | 3.7× | $23.1 | 2.5 h | 50% (n 16) |
| US PCE inflation | 15 | 1.6× | 2.8× | $24.0 | 2 h | 53% (n 15) |
| US PPI (producer prices) | 15 | 1.9× | 4.0× | $29.2 | 5 h | 40% (n 15) |
| ISM manufacturing PMI | 16 | 1.3× | 2.5× | $23.7 | 3 h | 38% (n 16) |
| ISM services PMI | 17 | 1.2× | 2.8× | $21.8 | 2 h | 56% (n 16) |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 10 | 1.5× | 2.7× | $22.8 | 1 h | 50% (n 10) |
| JOLTS job openings | 16 | 1.3× | 3.0× | $23.0 | 1.5 h | 50% (n 16) |
198 releases with hourly gold data, Jun 2024 to Nov 2026. Gold: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars via Yahoo Finance. Normal = median range of the same New York clock hour on weekdays with no release on our list. Rows with fewer than 8 releases are hidden. History, not a forecast.
Stop planner: what the typical release hour means for your size
Uses the median and the 1-in-10 release-hour range from the table above. 1 lot = 100 oz, so each $1 of stop distance costs $100 per lot. A stop narrower than the typical release hour is likely to be reached by normal release noise; a wider stop means a smaller position for the same risk. Stops are not guaranteed: in fast markets they can fill worse. Check your exact numbers with the position size calculator.
Typical release-hour ranges are in the table above.
The short answer
Across 198 releases, the FOMC rate decision had the biggest release hour: a median 4.7× a normal hour at that time of day (n = 20). The ISM services PMI was the mildest, at 1.2×. Reversals are common: after the ISM services PMI release hour, the next three hours broke its extreme against the first move 56% of the time (n = 16). The table answers two practical questions: how much wider than normal should I expect the release hour to be, and how long until it calms down.
How to read the table
- Release hour vs normal: the high-low range of the 1-hour bar that contains the release, divided by the median range of the same New York clock hour on weekdays with no scheduled release. 1.0× means a normal hour.
- 1 in 10 releases: the 90th percentile of that multiple. Plan for this, not only the median.
- Calm-down time: hours after the release hour until an hour’s range is back within 1.25× its own normal. “1 h” means the very next hour was already close to normal. We look 12 clock hours ahead; an hour with no bar (the 5 pm New York daily break, data gaps) is skipped.
- Reversal in next 3 h: the share of releases where, within the next three clock hours (at least two of them with a bar), gold broke the release hour’s low after an up hour (or its high after a down hour). It shows how often the first move was not the last word.
Method and limitations
- Release times: the site’s checked event list (Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Labor Department and ISM schedules), the same dates as the gold event pages. The release hour is defined exactly as there.
- Gold: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars via Yahoo Finance, from mid-2024. Futures trade a few dollars from spot XAUUSD; hourly ranges are almost identical.
- Normal hours: 23 New York clock hours, each with its own median range from days with no release on our list. Releases that share an hour (for example CPI and jobless claims) are counted under each type.
- Hour resolution only: the first minutes after 8:30 am New York are inside one bar, so a spike and its reversal in the same hour both count towards the range.
Frequently asked questions
How much does gold move on CPI or NFP day?
In our hourly data the release hour of CPI and the jobs report is several times a normal hour at that time of day; the table gives the median multiple, the 1-in-10 multiple and the dollar range for each release.
How long until gold calms down after a release?
The calm-down column shows the median number of hours until an hour’s range is back within 1.25 times its normal. For many releases it is only one or two hours; Fed decisions can take longer.
Should I widen my stop on release day?
That is your decision. The stop planner shows what the typical release-hour range implies for position size at a given risk; a wider stop with a smaller position keeps the money at risk the same. We do not recommend stop levels.
Why are some rows hidden?
Any release type with fewer than 8 releases in our hourly data is hidden, because a handful of releases says almost nothing.
Educational study only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Past price behaviour does not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.