PCE Inflation and Gold
When the US PCE inflation comes out, why it moves gold, and how gold actually reacted the last 12 times, from real hourly prices. Next release in your time zone, with a countdown and a calendar reminder.
US PCE inflation:
Wed 25 Nov 2026, 8:30 am New York time · source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Released at the same time: US weekly jobless claims.
The time above is shown in your own time zone. The calendar file holds this release with a reminder 15 minutes before; it works in Apple, Google and Outlook calendars.
How gold reacted the last 12 times
- Average release-hour move
- $17.4 (0.39%)
- Average release-hour range
- $31.8
- Release hour closed higher
- 9 of 12
- Average session move
- 1.10% ($50.5)
- Gold closed the session higher
- 7 of 12
- Average session range
- $107.9
Averages of the absolute moves (ignoring direction) in the table above, computed when the page was built. Past reactions do not predict the direction of the next one.
| Release (New York date) | Release hourmove | Release hourhigh–low | Gold that sessionclose to close | Session rangehigh–low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct 20268:30 am NY · with GDP, Jobless claims | +$1.2+0.03% | $16.1 | −1.17%−$47.9 | $65.4 |
| Wed 30 Sep 20268:30 am NY | +$21.2+0.50% | $37.2 | −0.61%−$25.9 | $72.9 |
| Wed 26 Aug 20268:30 am NY | −$10.9−0.23% | $24.0 | −1.44%−$68.1 | $92.7 |
| Thu 30 Jul 20268:30 am NY · with GDP, Jobless claims | −$8.6−0.21% | $20.0 | +0.89%+$36.8 | $95.2 |
| Thu 25 Jun 20268:30 am NY | +$32.9+0.82% | $41.6 | +0.63%+$25.2 | $83.7 |
| Thu 28 May 20268:30 am NY | +$43.7+0.99% | $54.2 | +0.86%+$38.8 | $151.5 |
| Thu 30 Apr 20268:30 am NY · with GDP | +$9.4+0.20% | $17.7 | +1.73%+$78.7 | $108.0 |
| Thu 9 Apr 20268:30 am NY | −$10.4−0.22% | $25.4 | +0.96%+$45.5 | $107.4 |
| Fri 13 Mar 20268:30 am NY | +$11.5+0.22% | $18.7 | −1.20%−$61.0 | $118.3 |
| Fri 20 Feb 20268:30 am NY · with GDP | +$19.0+0.38% | $31.0 | +1.30%+$65.4 | $131.7 |
| Thu 22 Jan 202610:00 am NY | +$37.3+0.77% | $50.4 | +2.11%+$102.2 | $171.6 |
| Fri 5 Dec 202510:00 am NY | +$2.6+0.06% | $45.0 | −0.24%−$10.2 | $96.0 |
Prices: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars via Yahoo Finance, dollars per ounce. Release hour = the 1-hour bar that contains the release, from the close of the hour before. Session = the COMEX day the release falls in (6 pm New York the evening before to 5 pm New York), against the previous session’s close. Session closes are the last hourly price before 5 pm New York, not the 1:30 pm settlement, so afternoon releases such as Fed decisions are inside the move.
Get reminded
Two free ways, no account needed. Add the next release to your own calendar with the buttons above, or get Gold Daily: once a day, Mon–Sat, it lists the next big event in your time zone with today’s gold levels.
What is the US PCE inflation?
The Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes the PCE price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target, plus consumer spending and income. The next PCE release is on Wed 25 Nov 2026 at 8:30 am New York time ( in your time zone).
When does it come out?
Monthly, usually in the last week of the month, at 8:30 am New York time. In 2026 it is often published at the same time as a GDP estimate. Dates come from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; we only list a date once it is on the official schedule.
Why does it move gold?
Because the Fed defines its target in PCE terms, a hotter or cooler core PCE than expected shifts rate expectations directly. Much of it can be estimated from CPI and PPI a few weeks earlier, so the surprise is often small, but when it differs from those estimates yields, the dollar and gold react.
What moves the price is the surprise: the gap between the number and what the market expected. We do not show consensus forecasts, because they come from commercial surveys we cannot republish, and we never guess them.
What traders look at
- Core PCE month on month and year on year
- Real consumer spending
- Whether a GDP release lands at the same time
What the history table shows
Across the last 12 times, gold’s release hour moved $17.4 on average (0.39%), with an average high–low range of $31.8 in that hour. Over the whole session gold moved 1.10% on average and closed higher 7 of 12 times. The table uses COMEX gold futures, which trade a few dollars above spot gold (XAUUSD) but move almost identically. For an 8:30 am release the release hour is the 8:00–9:00 am New York bar, so it includes 30 minutes before the number. Rows marked “with” show other releases that came out at the same minute: gold’s move that hour is the combined reaction.
How traders prepare (education)
- Know the time in your zone. The countdown above converts it for you; add it to your calendar so it does not catch you mid-trade.
- Size for the release hour. Compare the average release-hour range above with your stop. The position size calculator shows the lot size that keeps the risk the same with a wider stop.
- Decide before the number. Stand aside, reduce size or wait for the first spike to settle: pick one in advance. See the gold news trading lesson.
- Check the week. The weekly gold cheat sheet lists this week’s events and levels; the market scoreboard shows the dollar and yields gold reacts to.
Related reading
- PCE inflation and gold
- PCE inflation and gold today
- PCE, GDP and gold in October 2026
- US inflation and gold tracker
- All gold event pages
- Gold economic calendar
- Gold event centre: next three weeks
Frequently asked questions
When is the next PCE release?
Wed 25 Nov 2026 at 8:30 am New York time (13:30 UTC), according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The page shows it in your own time zone with a countdown.
What time is the PCE released?
Monthly, usually in the last week of the month, at 8:30 am New York time. In 2026 it is often published at the same time as a GDP estimate.
Does the PCE push gold up or down?
It depends on the surprise, not the number itself. Much of it can be estimated from CPI and PPI a few weeks earlier, so the surprise is often small, but when it differs from those estimates yields, the dollar and gold react. What else is moving yields and the dollar that day matters too, so the same kind of surprise does not always move gold the same way.
How much does gold move on PCE?
Over the last 12 times, gold’s release hour moved $17.4 on average (0.39%), with an average range of $31.8. Over the full session it moved 1.10% on average and closed higher 7 of 12 times. These are averages of real past moves, not a forecast.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Release dates come from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s official schedule and release archive. Gold prices are COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars via Yahoo Finance, and every move in the table is calculated from those bars when the page is built. We do not show consensus forecasts.
Can I get a reminder before the release?
Yes. Use Add to calendar for a calendar file with a reminder 15 minutes before, or the Google Calendar button. Gold Daily, our free email, lists the next big event in your time zone once a day, Mon–Sat.
Educational page only. Not financial advice and not a signal. Past price reactions do not predict future prices. See our risk disclaimer.