US 10-year yield in gold trading
The US 10-year yield is the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes; rising yields usually pressure gold, especially when the inflation-adjusted part rises.
Also called 10-year Treasury yield, TNX, US10Y, Benchmark yield
The US 10-year yield is the annual return investors earn on a 10-year US Treasury note bought at today’s price. It is the most widely quoted benchmark interest rate in the world and moves every second the bond market is open.
How it applies to gold trading
The 10-year nominal yield can be split into two parts: the real yield (shown by 10-year TIPS) and breakeven inflation (the market’s inflation expectation). Gold has historically been most sensitive to the real part. A rise in nominal yields driven by higher inflation expectations may leave gold flat, while the same rise driven by real yields tends to push it down.
Intraday, gold traders watch the 10-year and the 2-year yield alongside the dollar index after US data. A sharp yield spike on a hot CPI report is often the clearest real-time explanation of a gold sell-off.
Worked example
Example (hypothetical numbers): the 10-year yield rises from 4.10% to 4.25% over a week. TIPS yields rise from 1.80% to 1.95%, so the whole move is real. Gold falls from 4,060 to 3,995. In another week the 10-year rises the same 15 basis points but only because breakevens rise; gold holds near 4,040.
A common mistake
Reading every rise in yields as bearish for gold. Check whether it came from real yields or inflation expectations.
See also: Real yields, TIPS, Breakeven inflation, Yield curve.
Frequently asked questions
Why does gold fall when Treasury yields rise?
Higher yields raise the return on a safe alternative to gold, especially when the real (inflation-adjusted) yield rises, and often lift the dollar.
Which yield matters most for gold?
The 10-year real yield has historically had the strongest relationship. The 2-year yield reacts fastest to Fed expectations on data days.
Where can I watch the 10-year yield while trading gold?
Most charting platforms carry it under symbols such as US10Y or TNX, and our real yields and dollar tracker shows it next to gold.