The short answer
On our data for the last 10 completed years, gold’s strongest months on average have been January (+3.10%), August (+2.74%) and December (+2.67%). Its weakest have been June (−1.68%) and September (−1.39%). September also has the worst hit rate: gold rose in only 2 of the last 10 Septembers.
But averages over ten years are fragile. A single extreme month, and 2026 has had several, can shift them a lot. Use seasonality as background, never as a reason to trade on its own.
All figures come from our free gold seasonality tool, which uses COMEX gold futures (GC=F) month-end closes and updates automatically. Numbers below are as of October 19, 2026.
Month by month: the full table
| Month | Avg (10y) | Median (10y) | Up years | Avg (5y) | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.10% | +3.71% | 7 of 10 | +3.70% | 2026: +9.31% | 2021: −2.52% |
| February | +0.70% | −0.11% | 5 of 10 | +2.65% | 2026: +10.60% | 2021: −6.41% |
| March | +1.48% | +0.89% | 6 of 10 | +3.17% | 2025: +9.63% | 2026: −11.44% |
| April | +1.91% | +1.52% | 6 of 10 | +1.87% | 2020: +6.37% | 2022: −1.92% |
| May | +0.65% | −0.16% | 5 of 10 | −1.24% | 2021: +7.63% | 2022: −3.61% |
| June | −1.68% | −1.84% | 4 of 10 | −2.89% | 2019: +7.96% | 2026: −12.07% |
| July | +1.70% | +1.90% | 7 of 10 | +0.93% | 2020: +9.01% | 2022: −2.46% |
| August | +2.74% | +2.36% | 7 of 10 | +3.55% | 2026: +9.12% | 2022: −2.08% |
| September | −1.39% | −3.25% | 2 of 10 | +0.11% | 2025: +10.16% | 2026: −6.58% |
| October | +1.28% | +1.64% | 6 of 10 | +2.62% | 2023: +6.87% | 2016: −3.18% |
| November | −0.42% | −0.04% | 5 of 10 | +2.23% | 2025: +6.47% | 2016: −7.92% |
| December | +2.67% | +2.85% | 8 of 10 | +2.15% | 2020: +6.72% | 2016: −1.78% |
How to read the numbers
Each column answers a different question:
- Average (10y): the typical size of the move, but easily pulled by one extreme year.
- Median: the middle result. When the median and average disagree, an outlier is at work. February’s average is +0.70% but its median is −0.11%, because two huge Februaries (2016 and 2026, both above +10%) lift the average.
- Up years: the hit rate. December’s 8 of 10 is the most consistent; September’s 2 of 10 the least.
- 5-year average: shows whether the pattern still holds recently. September’s 10-year average is −1.39%, but its 5-year average is +0.11%, thanks largely to a +10.16% September in 2025.
- Best and worst: the range. June has averaged −1.68%, yet it produced +7.96% in 2019 and −12.07% in 2026.
A worked example: why averages mislead
Take March. Its 10-year average is +1.48%. Now imagine you had relied on “March is usually positive” in 2026: gold fell 11.44% that month. On a hypothetical $10,000 account holding 0.1 lot (10 ounces) through that month, from the February close of $5,247.90 to the March close of $4,647.60, you’d have lost about $6,000, or 60% of the account. Seasonal tendencies say nothing about how big a move against you can be.
Why might gold have seasons at all?
Researchers and analysts point to a few recurring forces. None is guaranteed:
- Indian festival and wedding demand. Buying tends to build into Dhanteras and Diwali (October–November) and the wedding season. Our Dhanteras and Diwali guide looks at whether it really moves XAUUSD.
- Chinese New Year. Physical buying in China often picks up in December and January.
- Year-end and new-year flows. Portfolio rebalancing and fresh allocations around the turn of the year.
- Summer lull. Lower trading activity in June and July in Western markets.
Today’s gold market is dominated by interest rates, the dollar and central bank buying, which can easily swamp any seasonal tendency. In 2026, rate hikes and an oil shock have produced some of the largest monthly moves in the whole table.
How to use seasonality the right way
Think of seasonality as a gentle tilt rather than a reason to trade:
| Do | Don’t |
|---|---|
| Use it to frame expectations for the month ahead | Open a trade only because “December is usually up” |
| Check whether the pattern holds on the 5-year view too | Trust a 10-year average that hides one freak year |
| Combine it with the actual drivers (Fed, yields, dollar) | Ignore a hawkish Fed because the month is “bullish” |
| Size positions on volatility, not on seasonal confidence | Increase size in a “strong” month |
A sensible process: check the month on the seasonality tool, then check what’s actually happening on our news page, then size your trade with the position size calculator. If you want to test a seasonal idea properly, follow our backtesting guide, and understand why a small edge needs many trades to show up in our trading math guide.
Where we are now
October has averaged +1.28% and risen in 6 of 10 years. As of October 19 it was roughly flat (+0.23%), and gold has since slipped below $4,100 as oil and Fed hike bets weighed. November has been a coin toss over 10 years, while December has been the most reliable month. None of that tells you what will happen this year.
Seasonal statistics are based on a small number of years and say nothing about risk. A “strong” month can still deliver a 10% fall. Always use a stop and keep risk per trade small.
Reading the heatmap on our tool
The year-by-year heatmap on the seasonality tool is often more useful than the averages. Scan a column (one month across ten years) and ask two questions:
- Is the colour mostly the same? December shows mostly gains; September mostly losses. Mixed colours, as in February and November, mean the “average” is really noise.
- Is one cell much darker than the rest? That’s an outlier year. 2026 has several: +10.6% in February, −11.4% in March and −12.1% in June. Mentally remove them and see whether the pattern survives.
Then scan a row (one year across twelve months). Big years for gold, such as 2025, lift almost every month, which shows that the trend of the year usually matters more than the calendar.
Key takeaways
- Strongest on average: January, August, December. Weakest: June, September.
- December is the most consistent month (8 of 10 up); September the least (2 of 10).
- Ten years is a small sample; check medians, 5-year averages and extremes before believing a pattern.
- Real drivers beat calendars. See how much gold moves per day to keep your risk in proportion.
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Sources
- XAUUSD Global: Gold seasonality tool, COMEX gold futures (GC=F) monthly closes via Yahoo Finance, data updated October 19, 2026
- FX Leaders: Gold slips below $4,076 (Oct 22, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
What is the best month for gold?
Over the last 10 completed years on our data, January had the highest average return (+3.10%), followed by August (+2.74%) and December (+2.67%). December was the most consistent, rising in 8 of 10 years.
What is the worst month for gold?
June had the weakest average (−1.68%, up in only 4 of 10 years), and September had the worst hit rate: it rose in just 2 of the last 10 years, with a median return of −3.25%.
How has gold done in November historically?
Mixed. November averaged −0.42% over 10 years and rose in 5 of 10, but the 5-year average is +2.23%. The worst November in the sample was 2016 (−7.92%), and the best was 2025 (+6.47%).
Why does gold have seasonal patterns?
Possible reasons include physical demand cycles (Indian festivals and weddings, Chinese New Year buying), year-end portfolio flows, and the timing of central bank meetings. None of these is guaranteed to repeat, which is why seasonal patterns are weak and often break.
Should I trade gold based on seasonality?
Not on its own. Ten years is a small sample, and one extreme year can swing an average. Seasonality is best used as background context alongside the drivers that actually move gold: real yields, the dollar, the Fed and risk sentiment.
Where does the seasonality data come from?
Our free gold seasonality tool uses COMEX gold futures (GC=F) month-end closes and refreshes automatically. It shows 10-year and 5-year averages, medians, how often each month rose, and a year-by-year heatmap.
Sources and further reading
- CME Group — Gold futures overview — Contract specifications and trading hours for COMEX gold
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders — Weekly futures positioning, including gold
- Investor.gov — Stop order — How stop orders work, and their limits in fast markets
External sites are independent of XAUUSD Global. Check dates and data yourself.