CPI in gold trading
CPI is the US Consumer Price Index, the monthly headline inflation report released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; it is one of the biggest scheduled movers of gold.
Also called Consumer Price Index, US inflation report, Core CPI
The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices paid by US consumers for a basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it monthly, usually in the second week, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Markets focus on the month-on-month and year-on-year changes for headline CPI and for core CPI, which excludes food and energy, and compare each with the consensus forecast.
How it applies to gold trading
CPI moves gold through the Fed. A hotter-than-expected print raises the expected path of interest rates, lifts real yields and the dollar, and usually pushes gold down within seconds; a cooler print does the reverse. The reaction size depends on the surprise, measured in tenths of a percent, and on how much the market cares about inflation at that moment. The first move is frequently retraced or extended within the hour as the details (shelter, services, core goods) are digested.
Spreads on XAUUSD widen sharply at 8:30, and slippage on stops is common. Many traders either stand aside for the first minutes or trade only the second move once the spread has normalized.
Our CPI tool charts the gold reaction to each release against the surprise versus consensus, which shows how much of the move is explained by the number and how much by the context around it.
A common mistake
Reacting to the headline number before the core figure prints. The two can surprise in opposite directions, and the core number often decides the day.
See also: PCE, News spike, Real yields, FOMC.
Frequently asked questions
What time is CPI released?
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on the scheduled day, usually in the second week of the month. The BLS publishes the full-year schedule in advance.
Does gold fall when CPI is high?
Usually, because high inflation raises expected interest rates and real yields. The reaction depends on the surprise relative to forecasts, not the absolute level.