Pivot Points on Gold: The Camarilla R3 Fade
Camarilla pivot points explained on a real gold example from Monday 5 October 2026: Friday's NFP-day range and close set R3 and R4, gold pushed above R3 in the London morning and closed back below, then entry, stop at R4 and a target at Friday's close. Then the catch: the base rate over 213 trades.
Key points
The levels: Friday 2 Oct 2026 (NFP day) had a high of $4,259.0, a low of $4,153.8 and a close of $4,162.3, so Monday’s Camarilla R3 = close + range x 1.1 / 4 = $4,191.2 and R4 = close + range x 1.1 / 2 = $4,220.2.
The break (1H, UTC): the Mon 5 Oct 07:00 candle (03:00 New York) was the first to trade above R3, at $4,194.9, and closed back below at $4,188.7.
Short $4,188.7, stop at R4 $4,220.2 ($31.5 risk), target Friday’s close $4,162.3 (0.84R). The 08:00 candle went $10.2 against the trade (to $4,198.9); the 13:00 candle (9 am New York) reached $4,159.1.
The base rate from our pivot lesson: over 213 trades (June 2024 to 3 Nov 2026) this fade reached its target 60% of the time but needed 59% to break even, and averaged -0.04R after a $0.30 cost. Education, not a signal.
Chart data: COMEX gold futures 1-hour OHLC (UTC), 1-5 Oct 2026. Education only, not a signal.
Read more: Pivot Points Masterclass for Gold: Classic, Fibonacci, Camarilla and Woodie · Pivot point calculator · Day Trading Gold: A Complete Day Plan for XAUUSD
Transcript
Gold broke this pivot level, failed, and fell to the target.
Camarilla pivots. Levels from yesterday's high, low and close.
Friday, jobs day. Range, $105. Close, $4,162. That sets Monday's R3, and R4 above it.
London morning, gold pushes above R3. Then closes back below. Failed break.
Short the close. Entry, $4,189. Stop at R4. Thirty-one dollars of risk.
Target, Friday's close. Ten dollars against first, then hit.
The catch: it paid less than it risked. Over 213 trades this fade won 60%, and still lost after costs.
Levels. Break. Close back inside. Entry. Stop. Pivots are a map, not a signal. More at xauusdglobal.com.
