Short answer: The October 2026 US jobs report is due on Friday 6 November at 8:30 am New York time (13:30 GMT, 19:00 IST). Previews we read today put the consensus for nonfarm payrolls at about 60,000 to 65,000, after 29,000 in September, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%. For gold, the report matters mainly through the 78% chance of a December Fed hike that markets were pricing on 4 November: a strong report would tend to raise that, and a weak one to lower it.
On past jobs days, our own study found no reliable direction but a clearly wider day. The release hour’s median range since mid-2024 was $30.1, against $17.0 on ordinary days, and in 2026 the release hours have been much bigger than that.
This post is the dated preview for this one release. For the clock in every country see NFP time today; for how to plan the day see the NFP day gold playbook and how to trade gold on NFP day.
When is the jobs report? 6 November 2026 by time zone
The US clocks went back on 1 November, so New York is on Eastern Standard Time (UTC-5). Here are the main zones in one table; the full list by country is in our NFP time guide.
| Location | Local time on release day |
|---|---|
| New York | 08:30 Fri 6 Nov |
| London (GMT) | 13:30 Fri |
| Frankfurt, Paris | 14:30 Fri |
| Dubai | 17:30 Fri |
| India (IST) | 19:00 Fri |
| Singapore, Hong Kong | 21:30 Fri |
| Tokyo | 22:30 Fri |
| Sydney | 00:30 Sat 7 Nov |
The NFP event page shows a live countdown in your own zone and a calendar file with a 15-minute reminder.
What September’s report showed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published September’s Employment Situation on 2 October 2026. It was a soft report:
| Measure | September 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +29,000 | BLS called it “changed little” |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 7.1 million unemployed |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.1% m/m, +3.0% y/y | $37.81 an hour |
| Average weekly hours | 34.4 | Unchanged |
| Participation rate | 61.8% | Little changed |
| Revisions | −60,000 combined | July cut to −10,000, August to +133,000 |
Two details stand out. First, the revisions: July was revised from +21,000 to −10,000, so the economy lost jobs that month on the current count. Second, wages grew only 0.1% in the month. Both pointed to a cooling labour market, which on its own would argue against a rate hike.
The market did not see it that simply. In our study, gold rose $36.7 in the release hour on 2 October, then closed the day $40.0 lower, one of only five reversals in 25 releases. The first read was “weak jobs, fewer hikes”; by the close, other forces had taken over.
What forecasters expect for October
We checked several previews published between 25 October and 2 November. We only quote figures we could confirm on the page:
| Measure | September actual | October forecasts we read |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +29,000 | Consensus about 60,000 (cited by Pantheon); 65,000 (FinancialJuice prep note, Credit Agricole forecast) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.2% expected to hold |
| Average hourly earnings, m/m | +0.1% | +0.3% (Pantheon and Credit Agricole forecasts, not a confirmed consensus) |
| Average hourly earnings, y/y | 3.0% | 2.9% (FinancialJuice / Credit Agricole) |
The forecasts are spread out. Pantheon expects 100,000, above consensus, citing firmer small-business and regional Fed surveys, and sees upside risk to wages of 0.4%. Continuum Economics, writing on 25 October, expected only 50,000 with wages up 0.2%. That gap between forecasters is itself useful information: it means a number anywhere from about 30,000 to 120,000 would not be shocking, and the market will react most to the details.
Your calendar will show its own consensus figure on the day. Use whichever one your news feed uses, and compare the actual number with it rather than with September.
This week’s context: JOLTS, ADP, ISM and the midterms
The jobs report does not arrive in a vacuum. Four things have already moved, or will move, the backdrop this week.
JOLTS ran hot. On Tuesday 3 November the BLS reported 7.523 million job openings for September against about 7.15 million expected. Quits rose to 3.4 million, a rate of 2.1%, up from August’s 1.9%. More quits usually come before faster wage growth, so the report strengthened the hike case, and gold slipped after it. Our JOLTS event page and JOLTS guide explain why quits matter.
ADP and ISM services are due today. The ADP private payrolls report for October and the ISM services PMI (10:00 am New York, 15:00 GMT) are both scheduled for Wednesday 4 November. At the time of writing neither result was out. ISM services printed 54.9 in September. A strong ADP number does not reliably predict NFP, but a big miss either way can shift expectations going into Friday.
Democrats projected to win both chambers. Decision Desk HQ projected that Democrats will win control of the House and the Senate, Bloomberg reported. The dollar fell against every G10 currency and five-year Treasury yields dropped as much as 9 basis points. Analysts linked the move to the prospect of less fiscal stimulus. The new Congress does not change the Fed’s December decision; that still hangs on the data. Our midterms and gold guide covers the history.
Gold near $3,950. Reuters reported spot gold up 0.5% at $3,947.49 at 04:15 GMT on 4 November, with December COMEX futures at $3,958.00, and traders pricing a 78% chance of a December hike on CME FedWatch. One analyst quoted in that report called $4,000 an obvious resistance level. The weekly gold cheat sheet lists this week’s levels and events.
Three scenarios for Friday, explained
These are the usual first reactions in a market that is pricing a hike, not forecasts and not trade ideas. The chain runs: jobs data → December hike odds → Treasury yields and the dollar → gold. Gold pays no interest, so higher expected rates make it relatively less attractive; the gold vs real yields and dollar tool shows the link.
| Scenario | What it would look like | Typical channel | Usual first read for gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong | Payrolls well above forecast, wages 0.4% or more, unemployment at or below 4.1%, upward revisions | Hike odds rise from 78% towards certainty; 2-year yields and dollar up | Pressure on gold |
| In line | Payrolls near 60,000 to 65,000, wages about 0.3%, unemployment 4.2% | Odds stay close to where they are | Small, choppy move; focus shifts to next week’s CPI |
| Weak | Payrolls near zero or negative, unemployment 4.3% or higher, wages soft, more downward revisions | Hike odds fall; yields and dollar lower | Support for gold |
Why the strong case has less room than the weak one
With 78% already priced, a strong report can only push hike odds about 22 points higher. A weak report has much more room to pull them down. In plain terms, the market has already bet heavily on a hike, so a disappointment would force more repositioning than a confirmation. This is a common way analysts think about asymmetry, but it is not a rule: on 2 October a weak report still ended with gold lower on the day.
Mixed reports are the hardest
The most common outcome is not a clean scenario. Payrolls can beat while wages miss, or the headline can be fine but revisions large. Gold often swings both ways in the first minutes as traders weigh the parts. After JOLTS showed quits rising, wages may get extra attention this time: a 0.4% hourly earnings figure with soft payrolls would be read differently from a 0.1% one.
Payrolls are noisy and heavily revised. In September’s report alone, the two previous months were cut by a combined 60,000. A single month’s surprise can shrink or reverse once revised. Treat Friday’s number as one data point, and avoid reading the first candle as the market’s final verdict.
What gold has done on jobs days: our study
Our NFP days study lined up every Employment Situation release from February 2020 to October 2026 with COMEX gold futures (GC) data. The headline results:
| Measure (our study) | NFP days | All trading days |
|---|---|---|
| Days in the sample | 77 | 1,694 |
| Day’s range vs 20-day average (median) | 1.14× | 0.92× |
| Days wider than their 20-day average | 58% | 41% |
| Closed higher | 41 of 77 (53%) | 54% |
| Median absolute close-to-close move | 0.84% | 0.60% |
So direction has been close to a coin toss, but the day is wider than normal more often than not. The day after was ordinary: a median move of 0.62% against 0.60%.
The release hour since mid-2024
For the 25 releases with hourly data (July 2024 to October 2026), our study found:
- The 8:00 to 9:00 am New York hour had a median range of $30.1, against $17.0 for the same hour on 572 ordinary weekdays: about 2.2 times normal.
- The first move reversed by the 5 pm close only 5 times (20%) and extended in 14 (56%).
- The widest release hour was $104.5 on 4 September 2026.
The last 12 releases on our event page
The NFP event page tracks the last 12 releases from hourly COMEX data:
| Last 12 releases | Value |
|---|---|
| Average release-hour move | $30.2 (0.70%) |
| Average release-hour range | $57.4 |
| Release hour closed higher | 8 of 12 |
| Average session move | 1.19% ($52.7) |
| Average session range | $103.7 |
2026 has been bigger
Taking the nine 2026 releases in our study table, the average release-hour range works out at about $66, from $32.0 on 8 May to $104.5 on 4 September. The four most recent were $54.6 (2 October), $104.5 (4 September), $71.3 (7 August) and $80.8 (2 July). Some of that is simply a higher gold price: $60 is a smaller percentage at $4,000 than at $2,500. But it means a “typical NFP hour” from 2024 is a poor guide to sizing this Friday.
You can watch any of these days unfold candle by candle in Chart Replay, starting with the 2 October reversal. The NFP and gold tracker shows the jobs numbers themselves next to gold.
Worked example: sizing for a 2026-sized release hour
All numbers below are hypothetical examples, not recommendations.
Say a trader has a $10,000 account and risks 1% ($100) on any trade. One standard lot is 100 ounces, so each $1 move is worth $100 per lot.
- With a $15 stop, 1% risk allows about 0.067 lots (6.7 oz): $15 × 6.7 oz ≈ $100.
- The recent average release-hour range from our study table is about $66. A $15 stop sits well inside that, so it could be hit by noise in either direction.
- To keep the same $100 risk with a $70 stop, the size drops to about 0.014 lots (1.4 oz), which most platforms round to 0.01 lots, about $70 at risk.
- A trader holding the original 0.067 lots through a $66 hour against them would be facing about $440, more than four times the planned risk, before any gap or slippage.
The position size calculator does this sum for any account and stop. The idea is the same at every size: the stop comes from the expected range, and the position size comes from the stop.
In the release minute, prices can jump past stop orders and spreads can widen sharply, so a stopped trade can lose more than planned. Pending orders on both sides of the price carry their own risks; our news straddle test shows what slippage did on real releases. Leverage magnifies all of this.
A pre-release checklist for Friday
- Note the consensus your calendar shows for payrolls, unemployment and hourly earnings before 13:30 GMT, so you judge the surprise, not the headline.
- Check revisions to August and September as soon as the release is out.
- Watch the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar for confirmation of the first gold move.
- Look at December hike odds after the release; a large change there tells you how the market read the report.
- Decide your plan in advance: stand aside, trade smaller, or wait for the first 15 minutes to settle. The playbook walks through each option.
- Mind your state of mind. Fast candles invite impulsive trades. Our trading psychology guide covers fear of missing out and revenge trading on news days.
After Friday, the next big test is October CPI; the CPI event page and the economic calendar have the times. The printable CPI, NFP and FOMC study note summarises all three releases on one page. If you want to discuss the release with other traders, the community is free during early access: get free early access.
Key takeaways
- The October jobs report is due Friday 6 November, 8:30 am New York (13:30 GMT, 19:00 IST).
- Previews put payrolls at about 60,000 to 65,000, after 29,000 in September, with unemployment seen at 4.2% and forecasters looking for wages up about 0.3%.
- With a 78% December hike priced, the report reaches gold through hike odds, yields and the dollar; a weak report has more room to move those odds than a strong one.
- Our study: NFP days are wider than normal 58% of the time, direction is close to 50/50, the release hour’s median range since mid-2024 is $30.1, and the first move reversed by the close only 5 times in 25.
- 2026 release hours have averaged about $66, so size for a large range, not a typical one.
Sources
- September 2026 Employment Situation, revisions and the 6 November release date: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary
- September 2026 JOLTS (openings, quits, quits rate): US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS news release
- JOLTS expectation of 7.15 million and gold’s reaction on 3 November: IndexBox, 3 November 2026
- Consensus of about 60,000 and Pantheon’s forecasts: Seeking Alpha, 2 November 2026
- 65,000 forecast, unemployment and wage expectations (Credit Agricole): FinancialJuice, US NFP prep, 2 November 2026
- Continuum Economics forecast: Continuum Economics, 25 October 2026
- Spot gold at 04:15 GMT on 4 November, December futures and 78% CME FedWatch hike odds: Reuters via MarketScreener, 4 November 2026
- Decision Desk HQ projection, dollar and Treasury yield moves: Bloomberg markets wrap via swissinfo.ch, 4 November 2026
- ISM services September reading and the 4 November release date: ISM September 2026 Services PMI report
- NFP-day statistics, release-hour ranges and reversals: XAUUSD Global, How gold reacts on NFP days and the NFP event page, from COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily and 1-hour bars
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
When is the NFP report in November 2026?
The October 2026 Employment Situation report is due on Friday 6 November 2026 at 8:30 am New York time. The US is now on winter time, so that is 13:30 GMT, 19:00 IST, 17:30 in Dubai and 21:30 in Singapore.
What is expected for October 2026 payrolls?
Previews we read on 4 November put the consensus for nonfarm payrolls at about 60,000 to 65,000, after 29,000 in September. Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, and the bank forecasts we saw look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% on the month. Check your calendar on the day, because forecasts can shift.
How does the jobs report affect gold this time?
Through Fed expectations. Markets price about a 78% chance of a December rate hike. A strong report would tend to push that higher, lift Treasury yields and the dollar and weigh on gold; a weak one would tend to do the opposite. The size of the move depends on the surprise against the forecast, wages and revisions, not the headline alone.
How much does gold usually move on NFP day?
In our study of 25 releases since July 2024, the 8:00 to 9:00 am New York hour had a median range of $30.1, against $17.0 on ordinary weekdays. Across the last 12 releases on our NFP event page, the average release-hour range was $57.4 and the average move $30.2. The 2026 releases have been larger than the earlier ones.
Does the first move after NFP usually reverse?
Not in our sample. Of 25 releases with hourly data, gold closed the New York session on the other side of the pre-release price only 5 times. In 14 cases the move extended beyond the first hour’s close. The last release, on 2 October 2026, was one of the reversals.
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