Short answer: in our COMEX gold futures data, 15 of the 26 Novembers from 2000 to 2025 were up and 11 were down. The average November gained +1.3%, the median only +0.6%. The best was November 2008 (+13.9%) and the worst November 2016 (−7.9%). Since 2013 November has been a coin toss: up 6 times out of 13, average −1.2%.
After a bad October the record is no better. In the 13 years when October fell, November rose 7 times. Across all 30 completed months since 2000 when gold fell 5% or more, the next month was higher 18 times (60%), median +2.3%. That is a mild lean on a small sample. It is not a forecast.
Why November 2026 is in focus
October 2026 was a heavy month. In our COMEX futures data gold fell from a September close of $4,186.7 to an October close of $3,898.9, a loss of 6.9%. That followed a 6.6% drop in September. Our October 2026 review covers the drivers day by day.
Only one October since 2000 was worse:
| Rank | October | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (worst) | 2008 | −18.0% |
| 2 | 2026 | −6.9% |
| 3 | 2001 | −4.4% |
| 4 | 2014 | −3.3% |
| 5 | 2016 | −3.2% |
| 6 | 2000 | −3.2% |
So October 2026 ranks second worst out of 27 Octobers. The obvious question is whether November usually brings relief. Here is the full record.
How we measured November returns
We used the daily COMEX gold futures settlements behind our gold price history pages (Yahoo Finance GC=F, from August 2000). Each November’s change runs from the last settlement in October to the last settlement in November. The same rule applies to every month in this article.
Futures settlements differ a little from the spot XAUUSD price on a trading platform. The direction and rough size of each month are the same, but a single month can differ by a few tenths of a percent.
We kept this separate from our best month for gold study, which ranks all twelve months over the last 10 years. This page goes back to 2000, looks only at November, and adds the months that followed big drops.
Every November since 2000
| Year | October change | October close | November close | November change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | −3.2% | $264.9 | $270.1 | +2.0% |
| 2001 | −4.4% | $279.5 | $273.9 | −2.0% |
| 2002 | −1.8% | $318.0 | $316.8 | −0.4% |
| 2003 | −0.2% | $384.5 | $396.8 | +3.2% |
| 2004 | +2.3% | $428.5 | $451.3 | +5.3% |
| 2005 | −0.8% | $465.1 | $494.6 | +6.3% |
| 2006 | +0.9% | $604.1 | $646.9 | +7.1% |
| 2007 | +6.6% | $792.0 | $782.2 | −1.2% |
| 2008 | −18.0% | $716.8 | $816.2 | +13.9% |
| 2009 | +3.1% | $1,039.7 | $1,181.1 | +13.6% |
| 2010 | +3.8% | $1,357.1 | $1,385.0 | +2.1% |
| 2011 | +6.4% | $1,724.2 | $1,745.5 | +1.2% |
| 2012 | −3.0% | $1,717.5 | $1,710.9 | −0.4% |
| 2013 | −0.2% | $1,323.6 | $1,250.6 | −5.5% |
| 2014 | −3.3% | $1,171.1 | $1,175.2 | +0.4% |
| 2015 | +2.3% | $1,141.5 | $1,065.8 | −6.6% |
| 2016 | −3.2% | $1,271.5 | $1,170.8 | −7.9% |
| 2017 | −1.1% | $1,267.0 | $1,273.2 | +0.5% |
| 2018 | +1.7% | $1,212.3 | $1,220.2 | +0.7% |
| 2019 | +3.1% | $1,511.4 | $1,465.6 | −3.0% |
| 2020 | −0.8% | $1,879.9 | $1,775.7 | −5.5% |
| 2021 | +1.5% | $1,783.9 | $1,773.6 | −0.6% |
| 2022 | −1.9% | $1,640.7 | $1,746.0 | +6.4% |
| 2023 | +6.9% | $1,994.3 | $2,038.1 | +2.2% |
| 2024 | +3.4% | $2,749.3 | $2,657.0 | −3.4% |
| 2025 | +3.2% | $3,996.5 | $4,254.9 | +6.5% |
COMEX gold futures month-end settlements; changes are our calculations from the site’s daily data. November 2026 is excluded because it is not complete.
You can click through individual months on our history pages, for example October 2008 and November 2008, or the November 2016 election month.
November in numbers: the summary
| Measure | November (2000–2025) | All months (Sep 2000–Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Months in sample | 26 | 314 |
| Up | 15 (58%) | 176 (56%) |
| Down | 11 | 138 |
| Average change | +1.3% | +1.0% |
| Median change | +0.6% | +0.8% |
| Best | +13.9% (2008) | |
| Worst | −7.9% (2016) | |
| Average size of move, up or down | 4.2% | 3.9% |
Three points stand out.
1. November is close to an average month. Its up-rate (58%) is barely above the 56% for all months, and its median (+0.6%) is slightly below the all-month median (+0.8%). By average it ranks fourth of twelve months, behind January (+3.0%), August (+2.5%) and December (+1.5%). By median it ranks only seventh.
2. The average is pulled up by two years. November 2008 (+13.9%) and November 2009 (+13.6%) together add about a percentage point to the 26-year average. Remove them and the average falls to roughly a third of a percent. When two data points carry the result, it is not a dependable seasonal.
3. November moves a lot. The average November moved 4.2% in one direction or the other, against 3.9% for all months. Eleven of the 26 Novembers moved 5% or more. The month tends to be eventful, not reliably positive.
The gold seasonality tool and the monthly returns heatmap show the same data visually; mixed colours in the November column are the quickest way to see how noisy it is.
Two different eras
The record splits sharply around 2013, the year the 2001–2011 bull market finally broke:
| Period | Novembers | Up | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000–2012 | 13 | 9 | +3.9% | +2.1% |
| 2013–2025 | 13 | 6 | −1.2% | −0.6% |
| Last 10 (2016–2025) | 10 | 5 | −0.4% | 0.0% |
| Last 5 (2021–2025) | 5 | 3 | +2.2% | +2.2% |
The positive reputation of November comes almost entirely from the bull-market years. Since 2013 the month has been slightly negative on average, with four Novembers down 5% or more (2013, 2015, 2016, 2020). The last-10-years figures match our best-month study, which found November averaged −0.42% and rose in 5 of 10.
Does November bounce after a bad October?
We split the 26 Novembers by what October did:
| October was… | Cases | November up | Average November | Median November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 13 | 7 | +0.8% | +0.4% |
| Up | 13 | 8 | +1.8% | +1.2% |
| Down 3% or more | 6 | 3 | +1.0% | 0.0% |
If anything, November did slightly better after an up October. The six Novembers after an October fall of 3% or more were 2000 (+2.0%), 2001 (−2.0%), 2008 (+13.9%), 2012 (−0.4%), 2014 (+0.4%) and 2016 (−7.9%): three up, three down, with one huge rebound doing all the work in the average.
That one rebound is the case people remember. October 2008 fell 18.0% in the financial-crisis liquidation, and November 2008 recovered 13.9%. But in 2008 the Federal Reserve was cutting rates and launching large asset purchases. That backdrop is very different from a market pricing a rate hike.
What happens the month after a 5% drop?
To widen the sample beyond November, we took every month since 2000 in which gold fell 5% or more, whatever the calendar month, and looked at the very next month. There are 31 such months, of which 30 have a completed follow-up month (October 2026 does not yet).
| Drop month | Change | Next month |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2003 | −5.1% | +2.3% |
| Apr 2004 | −9.4% | +1.8% |
| Mar 2008 | −5.8% | −5.8% |
| Apr 2008 | −5.8% | +2.8% |
| Aug 2008 | −9.3% | +5.4% |
| Oct 2008 | −18.0% | +13.9% |
| Jun 2009 | −5.3% | +2.9% |
| Dec 2009 | −7.3% | −1.1% |
| Jul 2010 | −5.1% | +5.6% |
| Jan 2011 | −6.1% | +5.7% |
| Sep 2011 | −11.4% | +6.4% |
| Dec 2011 | −10.3% | +11.0% |
| May 2012 | −6.1% | +2.6% |
| Apr 2013 | −7.7% | −5.4% |
| May 2013 | −5.4% | −12.1% |
| Jun 2013 | −12.1% | +7.2% |
| Nov 2013 | −5.5% | −3.9% |
| Sep 2014 | −5.9% | −3.3% |
| Feb 2015 | −5.2% | −2.4% |
| Jul 2015 | −6.5% | +3.4% |
| Nov 2015 | −6.6% | −0.5% |
| May 2016 | −5.8% | +8.5% |
| Nov 2016 | −7.9% | −1.8% |
| Nov 2020 | −5.5% | +6.7% |
| Feb 2021 | −6.4% | −0.9% |
| Jun 2021 | −6.9% | +2.3% |
| Sep 2023 | −5.1% | +6.9% |
| Mar 2026 | −11.4% | −0.4% |
| Jun 2026 | −12.1% | +1.7% |
| Sep 2026 | −6.6% | −6.9% |
| Oct 2026 | −6.9% | not yet known |
COMEX gold futures month-end settlements, our calculations.
| Threshold | Completed cases | Next month up | Average next month | Median next month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fell 5% or more | 30 | 18 (60%) | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| Fell 6% or more | 18 | 11 (61%) | +2.5% | +2.1% |
| All months (baseline) | 314 | 176 (56%) | +1.0% | +0.8% |
There is a small tilt towards a rebound: a 60% up-rate against 56% for any month, and a higher median. But look at the losers. May 2013 was followed by −12.1% in June, and September 2026 by −6.9% in October. Four of the 30 follow-up months fell another 5% or more; ten rose 5% or more. A big drop tends to be followed by another big month, in either direction.
The 6% figures match our longer study of what happens after big monthly drops, which also tracks three, six and twelve months later and the two templates of 2008 and 2013.
Small samples. Twenty-six Novembers and thirty post-drop months are not enough to call anything a rule. Changing two or three outcomes would flip most of the percentages above. Several drop months also overlap (for example April, May and June 2013), so the cases are not fully independent. Past patterns describe history; they do not forecast November 2026.
What is different in November 2026
Seasonal averages assume an ordinary backdrop. This November has several things history did not include.
Fed hike odds, not cuts
Most of the big November rallies in the table, 2008 and 2009 above all, came when US rates were falling or near zero. In 2026 the market is pricing the opposite. A Reuters report on 4 November said traders saw a 78% chance the Fed will raise rates in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The next Fed decision is on 9 December. Our explainer on December Fed hike odds covers how those probabilities feed into gold.
Gold pays no interest, so expectations of higher rates tend to raise its opportunity cost. That is a live driver, and it can swamp a seasonal lean of a percent or so.
The midterms and Friday’s jobs report
The US midterm elections were held on Tuesday 3 November, and Reuters reported investors bracing for possible volatility as results came in. On Friday 6 November the October jobs report is due at 8:30 am New York time, which is 13:30 GMT, 19:00 IST, 17:30 Dubai and 21:30 Singapore now that the US is on winter time. The NFP event page shows the countdown in your zone, and the economic calendar lists everything else this month.
November 2016, the worst November in our table, was also a US election month. One case proves nothing, but it is a reminder that November events can push gold hard either way.
Dhanteras on 6 November
Dhanteras falls on Friday 6 November, the same day as the jobs report, with Diwali on Sunday 8 November. After October’s drop, Indian buyers are seeing much lower local prices. A zoomnews.in report on 3 November quoted Surendra Mehta of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association estimating that gold sales could rise 10 to 12% on last year. The same report put Mumbai gold at ₹1,37,000 per 10 grams on Monday, against ₹1,48,000 a month earlier.
Festive demand mostly shows up in Indian premiums and imports rather than big XAUUSD moves; our Dhanteras and Diwali guide explains why. Treat it as background support on dips, not a driver.
Where November 2026 starts
On the first session of the month, 2 November, COMEX gold settled at $3,955.4, up 1.4% from the October close. Reuters put spot gold at $3,934.75 early on 4 November. One day of a month tells you almost nothing about how it ends.
Worked example: using November’s range for planning
All figures below are hypothetical and for illustration only.
Suppose a trader has a $10,000 account and is willing to risk 1% ($100) on a trade. Gold is near $3,900.
- The average November in our data moved 4.2% from start to end. At $3,900 that is about $162 over the month.
- If the trader assumes a “normal” November and sets a stop $25 away, a single NFP release or Fed headline could hit it in minutes.
- With a wider $60 stop, a $100 risk allows a position of about 1.67 ounces ($100 ÷ $60). With a $25 stop the same risk would allow 4 ounces, but that stop is far more likely to be hit by noise.
- The trader also writes down two plans: one if gold holds above October’s low and November behaves like a rebound month, one if it makes new lows as in 2013 or 2016.
The point is that seasonal statistics are more useful for sizing and planning than for picking a direction. Our position size calculator and volatility tool do the arithmetic with live ranges.
Volatility after a large monthly drop is usually higher than normal, and event days widen it further. Prices can gap through stop orders. Leverage magnifies losses, so never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Key takeaways
- November since 2000: 15 up, 11 down, average +1.3%, median +0.6%, best +13.9% (2008), worst −7.9% (2016).
- Since 2013: 6 of 13 up, average −1.2%. The good reputation comes from the 2000–2012 bull market.
- After a down October: 7 of 13 Novembers up, median +0.4%. No reliable bounce.
- After any 5% monthly drop: next month up 18 of 30 times (60%), median +2.3%, range +13.9% to −12.1%.
- October 2026 (−6.9%) was the second-worst October in 27 years; only 2008 was worse.
- This November has a likely Fed hike priced, which most of the history did not. Context first, seasonals second.
For a one-page view of the drivers that usually matter more than the calendar, see our gold cheat sheet, and the XAUUSD news page for daily updates.
Sources
- Gold prices: COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily settlements via Yahoo Finance, August 2000 to 2 November 2026, as stored in the site’s daily data file; all monthly returns, rankings and statistics are our calculations
- Reuters via Business Recorder: Gold firms on softer oil prices, US midterm results awaited (4 November 2026)
- Zoom News: Gold demand surges as prices drop, projecting 12% sales on Dhanteras (3 November 2026)
- Our related studies: Gold in October 2026, best month for gold and gold after big monthly drops
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
Is November a good month for gold?
Slightly positive on average, but not reliable. In our COMEX gold futures data, 15 of the 26 Novembers from 2000 to 2025 were up, with an average change of +1.3% and a median of +0.6%. Over the last 10 years November was up 5 times and down 5 times, with an average of −0.4%.
What was gold's best and worst November since 2000?
The best was November 2008, up 13.9% from $716.8 to $816.2, straight after the crash month of October 2008. The worst was November 2016, down 7.9% from $1,271.5 to $1,170.8, the month of the US presidential election.
Does gold rise in November after a bad October?
Not reliably. In the 13 years since 2000 when October was negative, November rose 7 times and fell 6 times, with a median change of +0.4%. In the six years when October fell 3% or more, November split three up and three down.
What happens to gold the month after a 5% drop?
Since 2000 there have been 30 completed months in which COMEX gold fell 5% or more. The next month was higher in 18 of them (60%), with a median change of +2.3% and an average of +1.8%. The range ran from +13.9% to −12.1%, so the spread matters more than the average.
How many Octobers were worse for gold than October 2026?
Only one. Of the 27 Octobers from 2000 to 2026 in our data, only October 2008 (−18.0%) was worse than October 2026 (−6.9%). The next worst was October 2001 at −4.4%.
Does November seasonality mean gold will rise this month?
No. A small, inconsistent seasonal lean cannot outweigh live drivers such as Fed hike odds, yields and the dollar. In November 2026 the market is pricing a likely December rate hike, which history does not account for. Use the numbers as context for planning, not as a signal.
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