How CPI, NFP and FOMC move gold
Gold reacts to the surprise, not the headline: the gap between the actual figure and what markets expected, and what it means for interest rates, real yields and the dollar.
Key points
- A typical shape: a spike, a whipsaw, then clearer direction after 15 to 30 minutes.
- Spreads widen and stops can slip in the first seconds after the release.
- The headline and the details can disagree (for example soft headline CPI, hot core CPI), and the first spike can reverse.
- FOMC days have two bursts: the statement and the press conference half an hour later.
| CPI (US inflation, monthly) | 08:30 New York time |
|---|---|
| NFP (US jobs report, usually first Friday) | 08:30 New York time |
| FOMC statement (8 meetings a year) | 14:00 New York time |
| FOMC press conference | 14:30 New York time |
How traders use it
- Write this week's release times in your own time zone.
- Many traders stay flat into the release. If you trade it, use reduced risk and wait for structure to form.
- Check the dollar and the 2-year yield: if they don't confirm gold's spike, be careful.
Watch out
- A tight stop held through the release.
- Trading the first one-minute candle.
- Assuming good news always means gold up.
Key line: Surprise versus expectations, then yields and the dollar, then gold. Let the dust settle.