Gold fell 6.87% in October 2026. COMEX gold futures opened the month at $4,190.1, peaked at $4,259.0 on 2 October, and closed on Friday 30 October at $3,898.9, which was also the month’s last price and only $19.6 above the low of $3,879.3. Measured against September’s close of $4,186.7, that is a loss of $287.8.
That makes October 2026 the worst October since 2008 in our monthly data, the second losing month in a row after September’s −6.6%, and leaves gold 10.2% down for 2026 after a year that began with a record near $5,600. The full day-by-day table and chart are on our October 2026 gold price archive.
All prices on this page are COMEX gold futures (GC=F) daily bars from Yahoo Finance, the same data behind our archive pages. Spot XAUUSD sits a few dollars away and varies by feed; see spot gold vs gold futures.
October 2026 in numbers
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Open (1 Oct) | $4,190.1 |
| High | $4,259.0 (2 Oct) |
| Low | $3,879.3 (30 Oct) |
| Close (30 Oct) | $3,898.9 |
| Change on the month | −$287.8 (−6.87%) |
| Month’s range | $379.7 |
| Up days / down days | 9 / 13 |
| Average daily range | $73.0 |
| Change in 2026 so far | −10.2% (from $4,341.1 at the end of 2025) |
| Change since the end of August | −13.0% (from $4,481.5) |
Two things stand out. First, gold closed at the bottom of its monthly range, which shows sellers were in control right to the end. Second, the move was not one crash. Gold lost ground in four of the five weeks, and more than four fifths of the monthly loss ($243.7 of $287.8) came in the last eight trading days.
Week by week
| Week | High | Low | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2 Oct | $4,259.0 | $4,153.8 | $4,162.3 | −$24.4 (−0.58%) |
| 5–9 Oct | $4,233.7 | $4,091.2 | $4,216.3 | +$54.0 (+1.30%) |
| 12–16 Oct | $4,242.3 | $4,095.0 | $4,181.1 | −$35.2 (−0.83%) |
| 19–23 Oct | $4,211.2 | $3,989.1 | $4,007.9 | −$173.2 (−4.14%) |
| 26–30 Oct (Fed week) | $4,097.2 | $3,879.3 | $3,898.9 | −$109.0 (−2.72%) |
The first half of the month was a range. Gold held roughly $4,090–4,260 and the 9 October close at $4,216.3 was the month’s best. The week of 19 October broke it. Gold lost $173.2, spot prices closed below $4,000 for the first time since July (futures settled just above, at $4,007.9), and the October floor near $4,076 gave way on 22 October. The Fed week that followed brought a bounce to $4,097.2 and then a new low.
The biggest up and down days
| Biggest falls | Change | Biggest rises | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | −$132.5 (−3.29%) | 15 Oct | +$62.2 (+1.51%) |
| 22 Oct | −$89.6 (−2.16%) | 9 Oct | +$59.3 (+1.43%) |
| 14 Oct | −$69.4 (−1.66%) | 27 Oct | +$36.2 (+0.90%) |
| 23 Oct | −$52.5 (−1.29%) | 26 Oct | +$30.5 (+0.76%) |
The falls were twice the size of the rises. The best day of the month (+1.51%) recovered less than half of the worst (−3.29%). Each big down day had a clear trigger:
- 14 October: hot CPI. September consumer prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with energy up 5.2% (BLS). Spot gold dropped about 2% to near $4,073 (the futures low was $4,095.0), and markets lifted the odds of an October hike.
- 22 October: oil. A Houthi drone strike near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield sent Brent back above $110, and gold broke its $4,076 October floor even though the dollar index slipped to a three-week low.
- 23 October: under $4,000. Brent neared $115 as tanker attacks slowed Hormuz traffic, and spot gold traded below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July.
- 30 October: the flush. Gold fell $132.5 to a 2026 low with a $158.9 range, the widest of the month. Silver lost about 6% to near $49, and the S&P 500 fell 1.8%.
A month like this is when leverage does the most damage. October’s average daily range was $73.0 and the last day’s was $158.9. On 0.10 lot (10 ounces), a $158.9 day is a $1,589 swing. Size positions from the range, not from hope; the position size calculator does the maths.
The Fed week
The last week of October packed four central bank decisions and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge into five days:
| Day | Event | Gold (futures) |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct | Quiet start under $4,000 | Low $3,990.9, close $4,038.4 |
| Tue 27 Oct | Oil cools before the Fed | Close $4,074.6 |
| Wed 28 Oct | Fed holds at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 with two votes for a hike | Range $4,036.9–4,097.2, close $4,051.6 |
| Thu 29 Oct | PCE 3.6% on forecast, GDP 3.4%, ECB holds at 2.50% | Close $4,031.4 |
| Fri 30 Oct | BoJ holds at 1.25%; ECI +0.8% as forecast | Low $3,879.3, close $3,898.9 |
Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give guidance on December, and the week’s high of $4,097.2 came during his press conference. None of the data surprised: PCE matched forecasts exactly and the Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% as expected (BLS). Our Fed decision reaction review has the hour-by-hour detail.
The surprise was Friday. With no new data, gold lost 3.3%. CME FedWatch odds of a December hike were around 75% that day, lower than the 85–89% priced earlier in October, and the 10-year yield fell. That points to positioning and selling to raise cash, not a new rates shock.
What drove gold down in October
1. A Fed that might still hike. After the September hike, markets spent October pricing another in December, between about 75% and 94% on CME FedWatch depending on the day. Higher policy rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
2. Oil-driven inflation. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and the Shaybah strike kept Brent above $110 for most of the last ten days of the month. That kept the inflation scare alive, with September CPI at 3.7% and PCE at 3.6%.
3. Yields fell, but gold fell anyway. The 10-year Treasury yield ended September at 5.293% and October at 4.929%, a fall of about 36 basis points. The dollar index rose only 0.4%, from 101.45 to 101.88. In a normal month that combination supports gold. In October it did not, and that is the most important lesson of the month. Our real yields and dollar tracker shows the gap.
4. ETF and fund selling. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) held 1,041.08 tonnes on 29 October, down 14.6 tonnes in the month and 19.1 tonnes from its 20 October peak. The cheaper GLDM added 6.5 tonnes over the same period. Our gold ETF flows tracker shows every month since 2004.
5. Cross-asset selling at the end. On 30 October silver, stocks and gold all fell together. When investors face losses elsewhere they sell what they can, and gold is liquid. The month-end flows guide explains why the last days of a month can trade differently.
Not everything was negative. IMF and SAFE data published on 30 October showed China adding 23.0 tonnes and Poland 24.9 tonnes to reserves in September. Central bank demand is still there; it just did not set the price this month. See the central bank gold tracker.
How October fits the bigger picture
Gold’s 2026 has had three big down months: March (−11.4%), June (−12.1%) and now October (−6.9%). On the other side were strong rallies in January (+9.3%), February (+10.6%) and August (+9.1%).
| Reference | Price | Gold now vs it |
|---|---|---|
| Record close (29 Jan 2026) | $5,318.4 | −26.7% |
| Record intraday high (29 Jan 2026) | $5,586.2 | −30.2% |
| Previous 2026 low (July, intraday) | $3,963.0 | broken |
| End of August | $4,481.5 | −13.0% |
| End of 2025 | $4,341.1 | −10.2% |
So gold has now fallen about 30% from peak to trough, and it closed October below July’s low, which had been the floor for three months. Our 2026 drawdown explainer covers the whole year. The monthly returns heatmap puts October’s −6.9% next to every month since 2000. It is one of the darker cells of the past decade, but nowhere near October 2008’s −18.0%.
What November’s calendar holds
US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November, so New York moves to UTC−5 and every 8:30 am ET release lands at 13:30 GMT and 19:00 IST, one hour later than in October. Times below include the change.
| Date | Event | GMT | IST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | US ISM manufacturing (Oct) | 15:00 | 20:30 |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm elections; polls close from 6 pm ET | 23:00 | 04:30 Wed |
| Wed 4 Nov | US ISM services (Oct) | 15:00 | 20:30 |
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England decision | 12:00 | 17:30 |
| Fri 6 Nov | US jobs report (NFP, Oct) | 13:30 | 19:00 |
| Tue 10 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | 13:30 | 19:00 |
| Fri 13 Nov | US PPI (Oct) | 13:30 | 19:00 |
| Tue 17 Nov | US retail sales (Oct) | 13:30 | 19:00 |
| Wed 18 Nov | FOMC minutes (Oct meeting) | 19:00 | 00:30 Thu |
| Wed 25 Nov | US PCE (Oct) and GDP second estimate | 13:30 | 19:00 |
| Thu 26 Nov | US Thanksgiving, markets shut |
In ET those are 10:00 am for ISM, 8:30 am for the data and 2:00 pm for the minutes. The next Fed decision is on 9 December at 2:00 pm ET (19:00 GMT, 00:30 IST on 10 December). NFP, CPI and PCE all feed that decision. The gold economic calendar keeps the full list, and our week-ahead guide for 2–6 November covers the first week in detail.
History is a weak guide here. In our data gold rose in 15 of the last 26 Novembers, with a median change of +0.65%. But the range runs from −7.9% to +13.9%, and with a December hike in play, November 2026 will be driven by data, not by the calendar. See the best month for gold for the full seasonal picture.
Lessons from October
- Levels break in news clusters. The $4,076 floor and $4,000 both gave way during an oil shock, not on a quiet day. Check the calendar and the headlines before you trust a level.
- Correlations can fail for a month. Falling yields did not save gold. Use them as context, not as a trigger.
- The final day can be the biggest. The month’s widest range came on its last day, after a quiet data release. Month-end and weekend risk are real.
- Range sets size. With a $73 average daily range, a stop that worked in a $40-a-day market is too tight now.
Review the month with other traders
Every month the XAUUSD Global community goes through what worked, what failed and the plan for the next month. The first month is free, then $19.99 a month.
Sources
- Gold, silver, dollar index, 10-year yield and S&P 500 prices: Yahoo Finance daily data (GC=F, SI=F, DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX, ^GSPC), our calculations, data checked 06:55 GMT on 31 October 2026
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Cost Index, Q3 2026
- Yahoo Finance: Gold price just hit a yearly low
- Coinpaper: Gold crashes below $3,900
- TradingKey: Spot gold breaks below $3,900
- CNBC: Treasury yields, 30 October 2026
- Federal Reserve statement, 28 October 2026
- SPDR Gold Shares holdings archive and IMF International Liquidity data, via our trackers
- Earlier October events: our daily digests for 22 October, 23 October and 30 October
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
How much did gold fall in October 2026?
COMEX gold futures closed October 2026 at $3,898.9, against September’s last close of $4,186.7. That is a fall of $287.8, or 6.87%, in Yahoo Finance daily data. Spot prices differ by a few dollars depending on the feed, but every source we checked showed a loss of more than 6%.
Was October 2026 gold's worst October ever?
Not ever, but the worst since 2008. In our monthly closes since 2000, only October 2008 (−18.0%) was a worse October. It was not the worst month of 2026: March (−11.4%) and June (−12.1%) fell further.
What was gold's high and low in October 2026?
The high was $4,259.0 on 2 October and the low was $3,879.3 on 30 October, a range of $379.7. Gold opened the month at $4,190.1 and closed at $3,898.9, very close to the low.
Why did gold fall in October 2026?
The main drivers were a hot September CPI report (3.7% a year), oil above $110 on Gulf attacks, markets pricing a December Fed hike at roughly 75–90%, and ETF selling, with a final 3.3% drop on 30 October as silver and stocks fell. Treasury yields fell over the month, so this was not a simple rates story.
How far is gold from its record high?
COMEX futures closed October about 26.7% below their record close of $5,318.4 on 29 January 2026 and about 30% below the record intraday high. Reports put the spot record near $5,589–5,595.
Is November a good month for gold?
Mixed. In our data gold rose in 15 of the 26 Novembers since 2000, with a median change of +0.65%, but the range runs from −7.9% (2016) to +13.9% (2008). Seasonal averages are a weak guide when Fed policy and data dominate, as they will in November 2026.