The short answer
Gold’s links with the US dollar and real yields are real on average but weak, and they change. On our gold correlations tracker with data to 3 November 2026, the 90-day correlation of daily gold and dollar index returns was −0.40, and the 13-week correlation with 10-year real-yield changes, to the week ending 30 October, was −0.22. Both count as weak. Over the previous three years, the real-yield link even turned positive for months at a time.
What to do: read the current rolling number, not the textbook rule; treat a clearly negative reading as background confirmation only; and when a link collapses towards zero or flips sign, assume another driver is in charge and lean less on macro confirmation for your trades.
What the numbers say
The current readings
| Gold vs | 30 days | 90 days | 250 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar index (DXY) | −0.21 | −0.40 | −0.37 |
| 10-year real yield (weekly) | — | −0.22 (13 weeks) | −0.36 (52 weeks) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Silver | +0.89 | +0.86 | +0.83 |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns (weekly changes for the real yield), from our correlations tracker, daily data to 3 November 2026 and weekly real-yield data to the week ending 30 October 2026. The readings update automatically; check the tool for today’s figures.
Two things stand out. The dollar link was weaker over 30 days than over 90, so it was loosening. And the closest relationship on the page was not a macro driver at all but silver.
How often gold and the dollar move the same way
A correlation of −0.4 sounds like “opposite”. In the 250 trading days to 3 November 2026, gold and the dollar index still closed in the same direction on 86 days, about 34%, and on 35 of the last 90 (39%). If your trade idea depends on “dollar up, so gold down” on any given day, it fails roughly one day in three even while the correlation is negative.
The real-yield link flipped
The rolling 13-week correlation between weekly gold returns and changes in the 10-year TIPS real yield, from February 2024 (the first full 13-week window) to October 2026:
- ranged from about −0.75 (June 2026) to +0.77 (April 2025);
- was positive in about 24% of weeks, in two spells: May to June 2024, and late February to August 2025;
- read −0.22 at the end of October 2026.
And in levels: the 10-year real yield rose from 2.29% (week of 10 November 2023) to 2.60% (week of 30 October 2026), according to the weekly FRED data in our real yields tracker, while COMEX gold went from about $1,938 to about $3,899, roughly doubling. The textbook says rising real yields should weigh on gold. Over that stretch, they didn’t stop it.
Why the links break
Correlation is an average over a window, and markets change what they pay attention to.
- A different driver takes over. Gold’s link with real yields rests on opportunity cost: it pays no interest, so higher inflation-protected yields make it relatively less attractive. When buyers who care little about that cost dominate, such as central banks adding to reserves, the link weakens. Our central bank gold tracker and the Pro Track lesson on central banks cover that flow.
- Safe-haven demand hits both. In a scare, investors can buy dollars and gold at the same time, so the usual negative link turns positive for days or weeks.
- A common cause. Gold and the dollar often both react to US rate expectations. When that common driver is quiet, the relationship fades.
- Window effects. A single Fed-day move can shift a 30-day correlation sharply. Short windows swing far more than long ones.
Reading a correlation properly
| Reading | What it means | How much it explains (r²) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.8 or more | Strong | 64% or more |
| ±0.5 | Moderate | 25% |
| ±0.4 | Weak | 16% |
| ±0.2 | Weak to none | 4% |
r² is a rough guide to how much of gold’s variation a simple linear link accounts for over that window. At −0.40, about 84% of gold’s daily variation over the period came from other things. Also remember:
- Use returns, not price levels. Two rising price charts always look related.
- Check several windows. If 30, 90 and 250 days disagree, the link is changing.
- Check the rolling chart. If the line has crossed zero recently, don’t rely on it.
How to adjust when a link breaks
- Downgrade macro confirmation. If you normally want “dollar weak” before buying gold, and the 90-day correlation is near zero, that condition is no longer telling you much. Trade the chart and your risk rules.
- Look for the new driver. Check central bank and ETF flows, positioning (COT report) and the news calendar. A break is information.
- Avoid hidden doubling. With gold and silver at about +0.86, a long in each is close to one bigger position. Size them together.
- Use beta for hedges, cautiously. Our tracker showed a 90-day beta of about −1.85 to the dollar index (gold’s percentage move per 1% dollar move). Betas shift as much as correlations do.
- Note the regime. Correlation breaks often come with a change in volatility or trend; see gold market regime detection.
Doubling up (hypothetical). You buy 0.10 lot of gold and the equivalent of a similar-sized silver position, each risking $100. With a correlation near +0.86, a bad day for gold is very likely to be a bad day for silver too, so your real risk on a shared shock is close to $200, not $100 per idea. Size the pair as one trade.
Common mistakes
- Trading the average as if it were today. “Gold and the dollar are inversely correlated” is true on average and wrong often enough to hurt.
- Mistaking correlation for cause. Both may be reacting to the same rate news.
- Reading a weak number as a signal. −0.3 is background, not a trigger.
- Ignoring the time of day. Daily closes hide intraday reversals after US data at 8:30 am New York time.
For the basics of each link, read real yields and gold and gold vs the dollar index.
Sources
- XAUUSD Global: gold correlations tracker (30, 90 and 250-day and rolling correlations, daily data to 3 November 2026 and weekly real-yield data to 30 October 2026; source series listed on the page)
- XAUUSD Global: gold vs real yields and the dollar (10-year TIPS yield and broad dollar, FRED data)
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (DFII10)
- Same-direction day counts and the rolling real-yield ranges were computed by XAUUSD Global from the data behind those two tools
- The doubling-up example is hypothetical
Educational content only, not financial advice. Correlations describe the past and are not trading signals. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
Is gold always negatively correlated with the dollar?
Not always, and rarely strongly. On our correlation tracker with data to 3 November 2026, the correlation of daily gold and dollar index returns was −0.40 over 90 days and −0.21 over 30 days, which we class as weak. Even so, over the previous 250 trading days the two moved in the same direction on about one day in three.
Why are gold and the dollar rising together?
Usually because something else is driving both. In a geopolitical or financial scare, investors can buy dollars and gold as safe havens at the same time. Heavy central bank buying can also lift gold regardless of the dollar. A negative correlation is an average over a window, so same-direction days happen even in normal times.
Has the gold and real yields correlation broken?
It has weakened and changed sign at times. On our data, the rolling 13-week correlation of weekly gold and 10-year TIPS yield changes ranged from about −0.75 to +0.77 between early 2024 and October 2026 and was positive in about a quarter of weeks. Between November 2023 and October 2026 the real yield rose from 2.29% to 2.60% while COMEX gold roughly doubled.
What does a correlation of −0.4 mean for gold?
It means the two series have tended to move in opposite directions, but loosely. Squaring it gives about 0.16, so in a simple linear sense the other market accounts for only around 16% of the variation in gold’s daily moves over that window. The rest comes from everything else.
How should traders use gold correlations?
As background, not as signals. Check the current rolling reading rather than the textbook, use a clearly negative dollar or real-yield reading as confirmation for a chart setup, avoid holding two positions that are really one bet, and treat a collapse towards zero as a sign that a different driver is in charge.
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