Short answer: the ISM services PMI is a monthly survey of US purchasing managers in services, released at 10:00 am New York time on the third business day of each month (15:00 GMT and 20:30 IST in US winter time). Gold reacts mainly through what the report does to Fed expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar. A strong report, and especially a hot prices index, tends to push those up and weigh on gold in the short term; a weak one tends to help it.
The effect is usually modest. Across the last 12 releases, gold’s average release-hour move in COMEX futures was $13.7 (0.30%). The October 2026 report is due on Wednesday 4 November at 15:00 GMT, and after September’s prices reading of 74.0, the highest since July 2022, the prices index is the line most traders will look at first. Our ISM services event page shows the countdown in your own zone.
What the ISM services report measures
The Institute for Supply Management asks purchasing and supply executives at US services companies whether conditions are better, the same or worse than the month before. Each answer set becomes a diffusion index: the percentage reporting an increase plus half the percentage reporting no change. Above 50 means expansion, below 50 contraction.
The headline Services PMI is the average of four sub-indexes. Here they are with the September 2026 readings from ISM’s release:
| Sub-index | In the headline? | September 2026 | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Yes | 56.5 | 61.7 |
| New orders | Yes | 59.8 | 60.9 |
| Employment | Yes | 50.1 | 47.8 |
| Supplier deliveries | Yes | 53.2 | 51.3 |
| Services PMI (headline) | 54.9 | 55.4 | |
| Prices | No | 74.0 | 72.6 |
| Backlog of orders | No | 56.6 | 55.6 |
| Inventories | No | 57.8 | 56.7 |
Notice that the prices index is not part of the headline. A report can show a softer headline and hotter prices at the same time, which is exactly what happened in September: the PMI eased by half a point while prices rose 1.4 points. ISM said the services sector had expanded for 27 months in a row and prices had risen for 112 consecutive months.
The supplier deliveries index is the odd one: a reading above 50 means deliveries are slower, which usually signals strong demand or supply strain. It has signalled slower deliveries for 22 months.
For a one-line definition, see the PMI glossary entry.
Why services matter more than factories for inflation
Services make up most of US spending and employment, and services inflation has been the part the Fed has found hardest to bring down. Goods prices can fall quickly when supply chains clear or oil drops. Services prices, from rents to insurance to haircuts, are tied to wages and tend to be stickier.
That is why the services prices index carries extra weight in 2026:
- It is early. The survey for October is published on 4 November, a week before October CPI on 10 November.
- It is broad. In September ISM reported that no industry saw a decrease in prices paid.
- It links to the Fed. The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October with two dissents in favour of a hike, and futures price roughly a 73-75% chance of a December hike. TD Economics said September’s price data reinforced expectations of another hike before year-end.
Gold pays no interest, so when hike odds rise, the cost of holding it rises too. Our Fed rate hikes and gold guide explains the mechanism, and the real yields and dollar tool shows it in live data.
What Monday’s factory survey told us
The October ISM manufacturing report on 2 November gave a first hint. The headline rose to 55.5 from 54.5, but the manufacturing prices index cooled to 75.2 from 77.9. Gold held a 1.8% rebound that day, helped more by a 7.6% fall in Brent crude. If services prices also cool, it would add to the idea that oil’s slide is starting to ease price pressure. If they rise again, the hike case gets stronger. Our ISM manufacturing guide covers the factory survey in detail.
ISM services release time in your time zone
The report is published at 10:00 am Eastern Time. The US clocks went back on 1 November 2026, so these are the winter times until March.
| Location | Time zone | ISM services time (US winter) | ISM services time (US summer) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | ET | 10:00 | 10:00 |
| London | GMT / BST | 15:00 | 15:00 (BST) |
| Frankfurt, Paris | CET / CEST | 16:00 | 16:00 (CEST) |
| Dubai | GST | 19:00 | 18:00 |
| India | IST | 20:30 | 19:30 |
| Singapore, Hong Kong | SGT / HKT | 23:00 | 22:00 |
| Tokyo | JST | 00:00 (next day) | 23:00 |
| Sydney | AEDT / AEST | 02:00 (next day) | 00:00 (next day) |
Because it lands on the third business day, ISM services often shares the week with JOLTS (Tuesday) and payrolls (Friday). Twice in the last year, on 7 January and 5 May 2026, JOLTS and ISM services came out at the same minute. The gold economic calendar lists every release in your zone.
How gold reacted to the last 12 ISM services releases
From our own hourly COMEX gold futures data (GC=F). The release hour is the 1-hour bar containing 10:00 am New York, measured from the previous hour’s close; the session runs from 6 pm New York the evening before to 5 pm.
| Release (New York date) | Release-hour move | Release-hour range | Session move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct 2026 | +$11.6 (+0.28%) | $16.6 | +0.12% |
| Thu 3 Sep 2026 | +$14.8 (+0.33%) | $29.0 | +1.93% |
| Wed 5 Aug 2026 | +$38.5 (+0.90%) | $44.7 | +4.20% |
| Mon 6 Jul 2026 | −$2.8 (−0.07%) | $46.7 | −0.03% |
| Wed 3 Jun 2026 | +$10.1 (+0.23%) | $17.8 | −1.25% |
| Tue 5 May 2026 (with JOLTS) | +$3.5 (+0.08%) | $21.1 | +0.78% |
| Mon 6 Apr 2026 | +$3.0 (+0.06%) | $38.0 | −0.57% |
| Wed 4 Mar 2026 | +$5.9 (+0.11%) | $37.1 | +1.02% |
| Wed 4 Feb 2026 | −$65.3 (−1.30%) | $121.7 | +0.32% |
| Wed 7 Jan 2026 (with JOLTS) | −$1.0 (−0.02%) | $29.6 | −0.86% |
| Wed 3 Dec 2025 | +$3.3 (+0.08%) | $52.5 | −0.15% |
| Wed 5 Nov 2025 | +$4.9 (+0.12%) | $21.6 | +1.25% |
What the numbers say:
- Average release-hour move: $13.7 (0.30%), ignoring direction, with an average range of $39.7.
- The release hour closed higher 9 times out of 12, and gold closed the session higher 7 of 12 times. With only 12 releases, that tilt is well within what chance can produce, so do not read it as a pattern to trade.
- One huge hour. On 4 February 2026 gold fell $65.3 with a $121.7 range in the release hour, during the very volatile weeks after January’s record high. Without that day, the average release-hour move drops to about $9.
Is the ISM services hour busier than normal?
We measured every weekday 10:00-11:00 am New York hour from September 2025 to October 2026, 294 hours in all. The average move was $14.7 (0.33%) with a $33.5 range. So the ISM services hour has been about as busy as a normal 10:00 am hour, with a slightly wider range. Compared with other releases on our event pages:
| Release | Avg release-hour move | Avg release-hour range |
|---|---|---|
| NFP jobs report | $30.2 (0.70%) | $57.4 |
| ISM services PMI | $13.7 (0.30%) | $39.7 |
| JOLTS | $14.1 (0.31%) | $33.8 |
| ISM manufacturing PMI | $9.2 (0.21%) | $30.4 |
ISM services is a medium-impact release: worth knowing the time and sizing for, but not in the same league as payrolls, CPI or a Fed decision.
What to watch in the October report
We do not publish consensus forecasts (they come from commercial surveys) and we never guess them; check your calendar shortly before the release. Then compare:
- Prices against 74.0. A fall towards the low 70s would echo the cooler manufacturing prices index and ease hike worries. A move above 74 would mean a new four-year high.
- The headline against 50 and the forecast. At 54.9 services are still growing. A big beat would lift yields; a sharp drop would raise growth worries.
- Employment. It climbed back above 50 (to 50.1) in September after months below. It is the last labour signal before Friday’s payrolls on 6 November at 13:30 GMT (19:00 IST).
- Business activity. It fell 5.2 points in September, the biggest move in the report. Another drop would hint that demand is cooling.
- What respondents say. ISM’s committee chair, Steve Miller, and the quoted respondents often name the main pressures. In September tariffs and fuel costs were the most cited.
Three scenarios, without a forecast
| Scenario | What it would look like | Typical first read for gold |
|---|---|---|
| Hot | Prices above 74, headline beats | Hike odds up, yields and the dollar firmer, gold under pressure |
| Mixed | Headline in line, prices steady | Small reaction; focus moves to payrolls and the BoE |
| Cool | Prices fall clearly, activity drops | Hike odds down, yields lower, gold tends to firm |
This week has more moving parts than usual: the midterm election count overnight into Wednesday, oil swinging several per cent a day on US-Iran headlines, and a Bank of England decision on Thursday. Any of those can outweigh a medium-impact survey.
How to prepare (education, not a signal)
- Know the time. Add the release to your calendar from the event page; the calendar file has a 15-minute reminder.
- Size for the range, not the average move. The average release-hour range was about $40. If your stop sits $10 away, a normal release hour can take it out in either direction. Use the position size calculator to keep risk fixed with a wider stop.
- Pick a plan in advance. Stand aside, reduce size, or wait 15 minutes for the first move to settle. The news trading strategy guide compares the three.
- Watch the dollar and yields together. If gold moves but the 10-year yield and the dollar do not, the move is less likely to be about the data. The markets board shows them side by side.
- Expect wider spreads at 10:00 am. Several US releases share that minute, and spreads often widen for a few minutes.
Worked example: same risk, wider stop
Hypothetical numbers for a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100):
| Stop distance | Ounces for $100 risk | Lots (100 oz) |
|---|---|---|
| $10 | 10 oz | 0.10 |
| $20 | 5 oz | 0.05 |
| $40 (about the average release-hour range) | 2.5 oz | 0.025 (most platforms: 0.02 or 0.03) |
The money at risk stays at $100 in every row; only the size changes. That is the whole idea of position sizing around news.
In fast markets prices can jump past a stop, so the real loss can be larger than planned. Leverage magnifies gains and losses alike. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose.
Common mistakes with the ISM services report
- Reading only the headline. In 2026 the prices index has mattered more. A softer PMI with hotter prices is not good news for gold.
- Mixing it up with the S&P Global services PMI. That is a different survey, released earlier as a flash estimate. Markets quote ISM far more.
- Forgetting the third-business-day rule. The date shifts when a month starts on a weekend or holiday; October’s report came on Monday 5 October.
- Ignoring stacked releases. When JOLTS or another number lands at the same minute, the move is a combined reaction.
- Over-trading a medium event. The average move is small. The biggest gold days of the month are usually CPI, payrolls and the Fed.
Key takeaways
- The ISM services PMI comes out at 10:00 am New York time on the third business day of each month: 15:00 GMT and 20:30 IST in US winter. Next: Wednesday 4 November 2026.
- Gold reacts through Fed expectations, yields and the dollar. The prices index, which is not part of the headline, was 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022.
- Over the last 12 releases gold’s average release-hour move was $13.7 (0.30%), about the same as a normal 10:00 am hour and less than half the NFP reaction.
- Treat the report as context for the week, alongside JOLTS, payrolls and inflation data, not as a stand-alone trigger.
For more, the weekly gold cheat sheet lists this week’s events with levels, the School of Gold puts the fundamentals lessons in order, and today’s gold news digest covers the latest stories. The community is free during early access: get free early access.
Sources
- September 2026 ISM Services PMI figures, consecutive-month counts and committee chair: ISM release via PR Newswire, 5 October 2026
- Prices index at its highest since July 2022 (74.5), no industries reporting lower prices, tariffs and fuel as the most cited issues: ISM September 2026 Services report text via Mining Stock Education
- TD Economics view on a further hike: TD Economics, U.S. ISM Services Index (September 2026)
- October 2026 ISM manufacturing figures: Mining Stock Education (ISM release text); oil and gold on 2 November: Kitco, 2 November 2026
- December hike odds: CME FedWatch via Trading Economics, 3 November 2026
- Release-hour and session statistics and the 10:00 am baseline: XAUUSD Global calculation from COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 1-hour bars, September 2025 to October 2026, as shown on our gold event pages
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the ISM services PMI released?
The Institute for Supply Management publishes the Services PMI at 10:00 am New York time on the third business day of the month. In US winter time (from early November to March) that is 15:00 GMT, 20:30 IST and 23:00 in Singapore and Hong Kong. In US summer time it is 14:00 GMT and 19:30 IST. The October 2026 report is due on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Does the ISM services PMI move gold?
Yes, but usually modestly. Across the last 12 releases in our COMEX gold hourly data, the average release-hour move was $13.7 (0.30%) with an average range of $39.7, close to a typical 10:00 am New York hour. The largest move was on 4 February 2026, when gold fell $65.3 in the release hour.
Is a strong ISM services number bad for gold?
Often in the short term, especially in 2026. A strong headline points to a healthy economy and a hot prices index points to inflation, and both can raise the odds of a Fed hike, lifting yields and the dollar. That tends to weigh on gold. A weak report, or a falling prices index, tends to help gold. The surprise against the forecast matters more than the level.
What is the ISM services prices index?
It is a diffusion index of the prices that services firms pay for their inputs: the share reporting higher prices plus half the share reporting no change. Above 50 means prices are rising for more firms than not. It was 74.0 in September 2026, up from 72.6 in August, and ISM said prices had increased for 112 months in a row.
What is the difference between ISM services and ISM manufacturing?
Both are surveys of purchasing managers by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing covers factories and comes out on the first business day of the month; services covers everything else, from retail and finance to healthcare and transport, and comes out on the third business day. Services is a much larger share of the economy, and its prices index is closer to the inflation the Fed is most worried about.
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