Every guide to gold says the same thing: when the dollar goes up, gold goes down. It is a good starting point, and the data back it up. But the strength of that relationship changes a lot, and treating it as a rule can lead you badly astray. This article puts numbers on it, using the live figures from our gold correlations tool.
Why gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions
Three mechanisms link them:
- Pricing. Gold is quoted in US dollars per ounce. If the dollar rises 2% against the euro and gold’s dollar price does not change, gold has become about 2% more expensive for a buyer in Frankfurt. Demand from outside the US tends to soften, and the dollar price adjusts down.
- Opportunity cost. A stronger dollar often goes with higher US interest rates and yields. Gold pays no interest, so higher real yields make holding it more expensive. Our guide to real yields and gold explains this channel.
- Safe-haven competition. In some kinds of stress, investors buy dollars and Treasuries rather than gold. In others they buy all three. Which happens depends on what is causing the stress.
You can see the first effect directly: when the dollar weakens, the gold price in local currencies often moves less than the XAUUSD price. Our gold price in your currency pages show this currency by currency.
What the dollar index actually measures
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) compares the dollar with six currencies, using fixed weights set in 1973 and adjusted when the euro was introduced:
| Currency | Weight in DXY |
|---|---|
| Euro | 57.6% |
| Japanese yen | 13.6% |
| British pound | 11.9% |
| Canadian dollar | 9.1% |
| Swedish krona | 4.2% |
| Swiss franc | 3.6% |
Because the euro carries more than half the weight, DXY is mostly a measure of euro-dollar. It leaves out China, Mexico and other big US trading partners. The Federal Reserve’s broad trade-weighted dollar index covers far more currencies, and our real yields and dollar tool charts that broad index against gold. The glossary entry on DXY has more background.
The euro’s weight is also why European and Japanese central bank decisions can move gold: an ECB or BoJ surprise moves the euro or yen, which moves DXY. Our guide to ECB and BoJ decisions walks through how.
The current numbers
Our correlations tool calculates the Pearson correlation of gold’s daily log returns (COMEX futures) with the daily returns of the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) over aligned trading days. On data to October 23, 2026:
| Window | Correlation with DXY | Share of gold’s daily moves explained* |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days | −0.26 | about 7% |
| 90 days | −0.48 | about 23% |
| 250 days | −0.37 | about 14% |
| 90-day beta | −2.18 |
*The square of the correlation (R²), a rough guide to how much of the day-to-day variation the dollar accounts for.
Three things stand out:
- The sign is negative in every window. The textbook relationship holds.
- It is moderate, not strong. Even the 90-day figure means the dollar explains less than a quarter of gold’s daily moves. Three-quarters come from somewhere else.
- The 30-day correlation has weakened sharply. At −0.26 it is about half the 90-day figure, which tells you something other than the dollar has been driving gold in recent weeks.
The beta of −2.18 means that over the last 90 days, a 1% daily rise in DXY came with an average fall of about 2.2% in gold, and a 1% fall with a similar rise. Gold is much more volatile than the dollar index, which is why the beta is larger than one even though the correlation is moderate.
For comparison, the same tool shows gold’s 90-day correlation at −0.40 with the 10-year real yield, +0.34 with the S&P 500 and +0.86 with silver.
How the relationship has changed
The tool also records a rolling 90-day correlation, sampled weekly since March 2025. Over that period it ranged from about −0.01 (late March 2025), when gold and the dollar were barely connected, to about −0.73 (mid-August 2025), when they moved almost as mirror images. From January to July 2026 it moved between about −0.20 and −0.51, then held between about −0.52 and −0.59 in August and September before easing to −0.48 now.
The lesson: a correlation is a measurement of the recent past, not a law. It can halve or double within a few months.
When the dollar mattered most in 2026
The big turns in gold this year line up reasonably well with the dollar:
- January. The dollar index closed at 96.22 on January 27, its lowest in our one-year data, two days before gold’s record daily settlement of $5,318.4.
- March. DXY climbed from 97.61 at the end of February to 100.51 on March 30, while gold fell from $5,311.6 on March 2 to $4,376.3 on March 26.
- September to October. After the Fed’s September hike, DXY rose to 102.58 on October 12, its highest close of the year, as gold slid below $4,200.
Our article on why gold fell from $5,318 to $4,000 puts these moves alongside real yields, inflation and positioning.
When the rule broke
The week to October 23, 2026 is a clean example of the link failing. The dollar index went from 101.84 to 101.67, a small decline that would normally help gold. Instead gold fell $160.7 (3.84%) in our data, its worst week since June. Reuters and Kitco reports that week pointed to oil-driven inflation fears, rising expectations of a December Fed hike and selling linked to a sharp fall in AI stocks. In that environment, the dollar was not the main driver.
That is why the 30-day correlation has dropped to −0.26. When something bigger is moving gold, such as an oil shock, a positioning unwind or a risk-off scramble for cash, the dollar link weakens or even flips for a while.
How traders use DXY with gold
- As a confirmation, not a trigger. A gold breakout with a falling dollar has a macro tailwind; one against a rising dollar deserves more caution. Our intermarket guide to DXY and yields shows how to read them together.
- To spot divergence. If the dollar falls and gold still cannot rise, as in the week to October 23, the market is telling you another force is in charge. Our why is gold moving today page tracks those forces daily.
- Around euro and yen events. ECB and BoJ decisions move DXY through its biggest weights, and gold often follows.
- With a check on the numbers. Look at the current correlation before leaning on the relationship. At −0.26 over 30 days, it is a weak guide; at −0.7, it would be a strong one. The correlation trading strategy covers how to use that.
Putting the beta into numbers
Here is what the 90-day beta implies at current prices, as a rough guide rather than a forecast. With gold near $4,020 and a beta of −2.18:
| DXY daily move | Average gold move implied | In dollars, from $4,020 |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | about −0.55% | about −$22 |
| +0.50% | about −1.1% | about −$44 |
| −0.25% | about +0.55% | about +$22 |
| −0.50% | about +1.1% | about +$44 |
Because the correlation is only −0.48, actual days scatter widely around these averages. On a day when oil, data or stocks dominate, gold can move far more than this, or the other way entirely.
Keep it in proportion
The dollar is one of gold’s most important drivers, but it is not the only one, and right now it is not the strongest. Watch it alongside real yields, oil and positioning, check the live figures on the correlations tool, and use the mechanical levels on the gold forecast page rather than assuming the dollar will tell you where gold goes next.
Educational content only, not financial advice. Correlations are calculated from COMEX gold futures and ICE dollar index daily closes via Yahoo Finance and describe the past, not the future.
Frequently asked questions
What is the correlation between gold and the dollar index right now?
On data to October 23, 2026, the correlation of gold’s daily returns with the dollar index was −0.26 over 30 days, −0.48 over 90 days and −0.37 over 250 days. All three are negative, meaning the two have tended to move in opposite directions, but none is close to −1.
Why does gold go down when the dollar goes up?
Gold is priced in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using euros, yen, rupees or other currencies, which can reduce demand. A strong dollar also often comes with higher US yields, which raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
What is DXY?
DXY is the ICE US Dollar Index. It measures the dollar against six currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), yen (13.6%), pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%). Because the euro dominates, DXY is largely a euro-dollar measure.
How much does gold move when DXY moves 1%?
Over the last 90 days in our data, gold’s beta to DXY was −2.18. That means a 1% daily rise in the dollar index has, on average, come with about a 2.2% fall in gold, and the reverse. It is an average across many days; on any single day the move can be very different.
Does gold always fall when the dollar rises?
No. A correlation of −0.48 means the dollar explains only about a quarter of gold’s daily moves. In the week to October 23, 2026, the dollar index slipped about 0.2% and gold still fell about 3.8%, because oil-driven inflation fears and stock-market selling mattered more.
Is the dollar or real yields more important for gold?
They often move together, so it is hard to separate them. In our data gold’s 250-day correlation with the 10-year real yield was −0.44, slightly stronger than its −0.37 with the dollar index. Most traders watch both, which our real yields and dollar tool shows side by side.
Sources and further reading
- CME Group — Gold futures overview — Contract specifications and trading hours for COMEX gold
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders — Weekly futures positioning, including gold
- Investor.gov — Stop order — How stop orders work, and their limits in fast markets
External sites are independent of XAUUSD Global. Check dates and data yourself.