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Daily gold digest · 4 November 2026

Gold News, 4 November 2026: 7 stories moving XAUUSD

Gold rose about 0.5% in Asia on Wednesday as the US midterm count pointed to Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, the dollar fell against every major currency and Treasury yields slipped. A 78% chance of a December Fed hike still caps the bounce below $4,000 after Tuesday’s strong JOLTS report pushed gold lower. ADP and ISM services are due tonight, the Bank of England decides on Thursday, India’s Dhanteras is on Friday and the October jobs report follows on Friday at 13:30 GMT (19:00 IST).

Gold spot$4,014.8+93.9 (+2.39%)NextUS ISM services PMI (October)in 8h 24m · Wed 15:00 GMTMarket openpause in 15h 24mRange$104.2

Gold edges up toward $3,950 as projected Democratic sweep knocks the dollar and yields

01
Politics

Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats win the House and Senate; the dollar slides against all G10 peers

Decision Desk HQ projected that Democrats will win control of both the House and the Senate, including a Texas Senate win for James Talarico over Ken Paxton, Bloomberg reported in its Asian markets wrap. The dollar weakened against every Group-of-10 currency, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%, S&P 500 futures fell as much as 1.4% before trimming the loss to about 0.7%, and spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,951.35. One analyst quoted by Bloomberg said the size of the win, more than the blue wave itself, caught markets off guard.

Why it matters for gold:

For gold the channel is fiscal policy: analysts quoted by Bloomberg and Reuters said a Democratic Congress could mean less fiscal stimulus, which would take some pressure off growth, inflation and yields, and that is what weighed on the dollar. The new Congress does not change the Fed’s December decision, which still hangs on Friday’s jobs report and next week’s CPI. Our midterm history guide shows how gold behaved after earlier votes, and the gold strength meter shows whether the move is a dollar story or broad gold buying.

Source: Bloomberg (via swissinfo.ch)

02
Yields

Spot gold up 0.5% at $3,947 as real yields fall, with $4,000 seen as the obvious resistance

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,947.49 an ounce at 04:15 GMT and US December futures gained 0.5% to $3,958.00, Reuters reported, as both nominal and real Treasury yields fell. Traders still see a 78% chance that the Fed raises rates in December, according to CME FedWatch. An analyst quoted by Reuters called $4,000 the obvious resistance level.

Why it matters for gold:

Falling real yields lower the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which is why the bounce came through the bond market rather than safe-haven buying. But with a December hike still the base case, rallies have struggled to get back above the $3,900-4,000 area that broke in late October. Our chart of the day marks the levels on the latest hourly chart, and the weekly cheat sheet lists this week’s pivots and typical range.

Source: Reuters (via MarketScreener)

03
Jobs

JOLTS beats forecasts: job openings jump to 7.52 million and the quits rate rises to 2.1%

US job openings rose to 7.5 million in September with an openings rate of 4.5%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday, while quits climbed to 3.4 million (rate 2.1%, up from 1.9%) and hires rose to 5.4 million. August openings were revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million. Kitco said the 7.523 million figure beat expectations of about 7.15 million, the 10-year yield rose about 5.8 basis points to 4.951% and spot gold ended the US session near $3,924, down 0.55%.

Why it matters for gold:

More quits usually come before faster wage growth, which is the kind of data that keeps December hike bets high and weighs on gold. Tuesday’s drop is a reminder that data can matter more than politics this week. Our JOLTS event page has gold’s hour-by-hour reaction to past releases, and the JOLTS and gold guide explains why quits matter more than the headline.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Kitco

04
Central banks

World Gold Council halves its 2026 investment growth forecast to 200 tonnes as bar and coin buying slows

The World Gold Council cut its forecast for growth in 2026 gold investment demand to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, citing slower bar and coin purchases, Invezz reported. In the third quarter, bar and coin demand fell 19% to 268 tonnes and jewellery dropped 17% to 313 tonnes, its weakest third quarter since records began in 2000, while ETFs took in 211 tonnes and central bank buying rose 42% to 321 tonnes. The WGC now expects central banks to buy at least as much as 2025’s 848 tonnes.

Why it matters for gold:

The split matters for traders. Official buying is steady and less sensitive to price, while retail demand is shrinking at high prices, so dips may find support from central banks but rallies get less help from coin and bar buyers. Our central bank gold tracker and gold ETF flows tracker show the monthly data behind these numbers.

Source: Invezz (World Gold Council)

05
Geopolitics

Brent climbs back above $105 after a reported US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island

Brent crude rose 0.33% to $105.12 a barrel and WTI 0.89% to $97.32 after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, with some officials calling it defensive, CNBC reported. The rebound followed Monday’s 7.63% fall to $104.77 on hopes for talks. One market analyst said the report added some risk premium back into oil just as markets were pricing a more diplomatic path, and Reuters later quoted a senior Iranian official saying the two sides remain far from a deal.

Why it matters for gold:

Oil is the main link from the Iran war to US inflation and to December hike bets, so a rebound in crude tends to push yields up and work against gold, even though the conflict itself is a classic safe-haven story. Our gold and oil guide explains the two-way pull, and the markets board shows oil, the dollar and yields next to gold.

Source: CNBC

06
Silver

Silver drops below $50 and the gold-silver ratio climbs to about 80

Spot silver fell 2.13% to about $49.45 on Tuesday, Kitco reported, and slipped another 0.8% to $49.38 on Wednesday while gold rose, Reuters said; platinum lost 1.2% to $1,399.72 and palladium 0.2% to $932.07. On Reuters’ Wednesday prices, an ounce of gold buys about 80 ounces of silver by our calculation, up from about 74 on 27 October.

Why it matters for gold:

Silver has more industrial demand than gold, so it suffers more when growth worries rise, as they did with the tech and AI selling around the vote. A rising ratio means gold is holding up better than the rest of the metals complex. Our gold-silver ratio guide explains how traders read it, and the markets page tracks the live ratio.

Source: Kitco; Reuters (via MarketScreener)

07
India

India: jewellers expect 10-12% higher Dhanteras sales on Friday as gold trades near ₹1,39,300

The India Bullion and Jewellers Association’s Surendra Mehta estimated that Dhanteras sales on 6 November could rise 10 to 12% from last year, Zoom News reported, after Mumbai bullion fell to about ₹1,37,000 per 10 grams from ₹1,48,000 a month earlier; Kalyan Jewellers reported heavy weekend footfall. On Wednesday morning MCX gold traded near ₹1,39,284, down ₹168, and 24-carat retail gold was quoted at ₹1,39,910 per 10 grams, GoodReturns reported.

Why it matters for gold:

Lower local prices bring Indian buyers back, but the World Gold Council still expects India’s demand this year to fall to a six-year low, so festival buying cushions dips rather than drives the global price. Our Dhanteras and gold guide shows how the festival has lined up with XAUUSD in past years, and the gold strength meter shows gold’s move in rupees.

Source: Zoom News; GoodReturns

← 3 November 2026Live news, calendar & levels

Summaries are written by XAUUSD Global from the linked sources. Educational content only, not financial advice.

Daily surprise · Wednesday 4 November 2026

Something new about gold, every day

Today’s gold fact

November in the last 10 years

Over the last 10 years gold was up in November 5 times, with an average change of −0.42%. Best: 2025 (+6.47%); worst: 2016 (−7.92%).

Gold seasonality by month
Pattern of the day

US jobs report (NFP): 1 Sep 2023

US jobs report (NFP), 1 Sep 2023: gold rose 0.06% on the day, with a $19.5 range (1.17× its 20-day average). Next day: −0.74%.

See every release in the study

Computed from XAUUSD Global’s own data: COMEX gold futures settlements and hourly bars, and our NFP, CPI and Fed studies. A new pair every day. Past behaviour is history, not a forecast. Education, not signals.

Weekly gold forecast

The levels for the week

How today’s news fits the week: the rule-based bias, the statistical range and the weekly pivot. See how past weeks scored. Education, not signals.

Gold this week week of 2 Nov

Full forecast
  • BiasLean lower
  • Statistical band$3,766 – $3,959
  • Last close$3,862.4
  • Weekly pivot$3,931.3

Rule-based bias and a statistical band for spot XAUUSD, not a prediction. Education, not signals.