FOMC in gold trading
The FOMC is the Federal Reserve committee that sets US interest rates at eight scheduled meetings a year; its decisions and press conferences move gold.
Also called Federal Open Market Committee, Fed meeting, Fed decision
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the part of the US Federal Reserve that decides the federal funds rate and the pace of balance-sheet changes. It meets eight times a year on a published schedule, releases a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on decision day, and the Chair holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Four of the meetings also publish the Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot.
How it applies to gold trading
Fed policy sets the path of real yields and the dollar, gold’s two main macro drivers, so FOMC day is usually one of the most volatile sessions of the month for XAUUSD. The pattern is often three moves: a reaction to the statement at 2:00, a second and sometimes opposite reaction to the press conference, and a drift as positions are squared into the close. Spreads widen at each step.
What moves gold is the surprise relative to expectations, not the decision itself. A widely expected cut can see gold fall if the statement is hawkish about future cuts. Pricing of expectations is visible beforehand in fed funds futures.
A common mistake
Holding a leveraged gold position through the 2:00 release because “the market expects no change”. The statement wording and the press conference regularly produce $30 to $50 swings even when the rate is unchanged.
See also: Fed funds rate, Dot plot, Hawkish and dovish, News spike.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the FOMC decision?
The statement is released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on the second day of the meeting, with the Chair’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The dates for each year are on the Federal Reserve’s website.
Does gold go up or down on FOMC day?
It depends on the decision and the tone relative to what was priced in. Hawkish surprises (fewer cuts, more hikes) usually push gold down; dovish surprises usually lift it.