The short answer
The September PCE price index is released today, Thursday 29 October 2026, at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT, 18:00 IST), together with the first estimate of Q3 GDP. TD Securities expects core PCE up 0.32% on the month and 3.1% on the year, and headline PCE up 0.49% and 3.6%.
It matters more than usual because the Fed held rates last night without saying what it will do in December. Markets still price about an 85% chance of a December hike. A hot core reading would back that bet and could weigh on gold through yields and the dollar; a soft core reading could trim it and give XAUUSD some room. If you want the background on what PCE is and how it differs from CPI, read our evergreen guide to gold and PCE inflation. This page is the practical version for today only.
PCE release time in your zone
The BEA’s release schedule lists both reports at 8:30 am. US clocks are still on daylight time until 1 November, and the UK is already back on GMT, so the usual gaps are one hour shorter than normal this week.
| Place | Local time today | Note |
|---|---|---|
| New York (ET) | 8:30 am | Official release time |
| London (GMT) | 12:30 | UK on GMT since 25 October |
| Frankfurt (CET) | 13:30 | 45 minutes before the ECB decision |
| Dubai (GST) | 16:30 | |
| India (IST) | 18:00 | Early evening session |
| Singapore (SGT) | 20:30 | |
| Tokyo (JST) | 21:30 | BoJ meeting runs today and Friday |
| Sydney (AEDT) | 23:30 |
Then, 45 minutes later, the ECB decision lands at 13:15 GMT (18:45 IST), followed by the press conference at 13:45 GMT. Our ECB guide for today covers that part of the afternoon.
What forecasters expect
| Measure | August (actual, BEA) | September forecast | Forecaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE, month on month | +0.3% | +0.49% | TD Securities |
| Headline PCE, year on year | 3.4% | 3.6% | TD Securities; Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.6% |
| Core PCE, month on month | +0.2% | +0.32% | TD Securities |
| Core PCE, year on year | 3.0% | 3.1% | TD Securities; Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.1% |
| Market-based core PCE, month on month | +0.34% | TD Securities | |
| Q3 GDP, annualised | 2.2% (Q2) | 2.5% | TD Securities, which says this is below consensus |
Two practical points:
- The BEA rounds to one decimal. TD’s 0.32% core forecast would be published as 0.3%. So a 0.3% core print is broadly in line, 0.4% or more would be a hot surprise, and 0.2% or less would be a soft one.
- Headline is expected to jump because of energy. September CPI already rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, pushed up by energy, so a big headline number is not news in itself. Core is where a surprise would come from.
Why today’s core PCE matters for December
Last night’s statement replaced the September promise of a “timelier return” to 2% with a line saying that more information will help the Fed decide. In the press conference, Warsh said his job is to make sure price rises in some sectors do not broaden out across the economy. Core PCE is the cleanest monthly test of exactly that.
That gives today’s release a clear link to the December hike odds:
| Core PCE (m/m) | What it would suggest | Likely effect on December odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% or higher | Price pressure is spreading beyond energy | Up from about 85%, towards certainty |
| 0.3% | In line with forecasts, still above a 2% pace | Little change |
| 0.2% or lower | Underlying pressure is not broadening | Down, but probably still above 50% with headline at 3.6% |
For gold, the chain runs through real yields and the dollar. Gold pays no interest, so when markets expect higher US rates for longer, the opportunity cost of holding it rises. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.045% in Yahoo Finance data, its highest close since 21 October, so the yield backdrop is already a headwind. Our real yields and dollar tracker shows both live.
What September CPI already told us
PCE and CPI share much of their raw data, so today’s report is not a blank page. When September CPI was released on 14 October, it showed prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with energy up 5.2%, according to the BLS release. Gold fell about 2% that day to a low near $4,073, and market odds of an October hike jumped from roughly 22% to 42%, as our news hub timeline recorded at the time.
That reaction is a useful reminder of scale: a clear inflation surprise in this environment can move gold by around $80, more than a full average day. It also explains why forecasters already expect a firm headline PCE today. The surprise, if there is one, is more likely to sit in core, where energy is stripped out, and in the monthly figure rather than the annual one, which moves slowly.
Don’t forget GDP
Q3 GDP arrives at the same second. Warsh said on Wednesday that third-quarter growth was likely running above 3%; TD expects 2.5% and says consensus is higher. A strong GDP number alongside firm core PCE would reinforce the hawkish case. A soft GDP number with soft core PCE would do the opposite. Mixed results, such as hot core with weak growth, can produce a two-way reaction that settles only once traders decide which number matters more.
Reference levels from our analysis data
These levels come from the same COMEX gold futures daily data as our XAUUSD analysis page and weekly gold forecast, calculated at 05:30 GMT on 29 October, when gold futures were at $4,057.2. Daily pivots use Wednesday’s bar (high $4,097.2, low $4,036.9, close $4,051.6). Spot XAUUSD at your platform will be a few dollars lower than futures.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly R1 | $4,149.7 | Weekly pivot |
| Daily R3 | $4,147.2 | Daily pivot |
| 20-day average | $4,136.8 | Moving average |
| Daily R2 | $4,122.2 | Daily pivot |
| Top of weekly statistical band | $4,110.2 | Last weekly close + half the 12-week typical range |
| Daily R1 | $4,086.9 | Daily pivot |
| Weekly pivot | $4,069.4 | Weekly pivot |
| Daily pivot | $4,061.9 | Daily pivot |
| Daily S1 | $4,026.6 | Daily pivot |
| Daily S2 / round number | $4,001.6 / $4,000 | Daily pivot; psychological level |
| Daily S3 | $3,966.3 | Daily pivot |
| Weekly S1 | $3,927.6 | Weekly pivot |
| Bottom of weekly band / 52-week low | $3,905.7 / $3,901.3 | Band; 52-week low set 28 Oct 2025 |
Two clusters stand out: $4,137–4,150 above, where the 20-day average, daily R3 and weekly R1 meet, and $4,000–4,002 below, where daily S2 sits on the round number. The average daily range is $67.4 over 14 sessions and $69.1 over 20.
Live levels, rebuilt from the latest data each time the site updates:
Last price in our data: $4,051.6 (COMEX gold futures, updated 2026-10-29 05:41 UTC, delayed; pivots from the 28 Oct 2026 session). Gold is below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages.
| Level | Type | Price | Last price vs level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-day SMA | Average | $4,525.8 | -474.2 |
| 50-day SMA | Average | $4,318.5 | -266.9 |
| Prior week high | Swing | $4,211.2 | -159.6 |
| 20-day SMA | Average | $4,136.8 | -85.2 |
| R2 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,122.2 | -70.6 |
| 4,100 | Round number | $4,100.0 | -48.4 |
| R1 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,086.9 | -35.3 |
| Daily pivot | Pivot | $4,061.9 | -10.3 |
| 4,050 | Round number | $4,050.0 | +1.6 |
| S1 (classic pivot) | Support | $4,026.6 | +25.0 |
| S2 (classic pivot) | Support | $4,001.6 | +50.0 |
| Prior week low | Swing | $3,989.1 | +62.5 |
These are reference levels calculated from price data, not trade signals. The XAUUSD analysis page recalculates them every hour with Fibonacci pivots and ADR, and the XAUUSD technical analysis page adds RSI, MACD and moving-average signals.
If/then paths for XAUUSD
These are not predictions or trade recommendations. They show how the usual channels would work in each case so you can plan before 12:30 GMT instead of reacting to the first candle. Data releases bring wide spreads and fast moves, and the ECB 45 minutes later can reverse whatever PCE starts.
If core PCE is hot (0.4% or more on the month), December hike odds would likely climb and yields could push higher from above 5%. Gold would be trading against that headwind. Daily S1 at $4,026.6 is the first area on the map, then the $4,000–4,002 cluster, daily S3 at $3,966.3 and weekly S1 at $3,927.6. The July low near $3,943 sits in between, and the forecast band bottom and 52-week low are at $3,901–3,906.
If core PCE is in line (0.3%), the odds may barely move and gold could keep rotating around the daily pivot at $4,061.9 and the weekly pivot at $4,069.4. In that case the ECB at 13:15 GMT and the US afternoon may matter more for the day’s direction than PCE itself.
If core PCE is soft (0.2% or less), December odds could slip and yields ease. The first levels above are daily R1 at $4,086.9 and last night’s high near $4,097, then the top of the weekly band at $4,110.2, daily R2 at $4,122.2 and the $4,137–4,150 cluster.
If headline and core point different ways (for example a big energy-driven headline with soft core), expect a choppy first few minutes. Core usually wins once the dust settles, because that is what the Fed has said it is watching.
A routine for this afternoon
- Write down the forecasts before 12:30 GMT: core 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y is the bar to beat.
- Mark the levels above and today’s range so far on your chart. Remember the ADR is about $67–69.
- Read core first, then GDP, then headline. Compare each with the forecast, not with your opinion of inflation.
- Watch the 10-year yield and the dollar index with gold. If gold moves and they do not, the move may not last.
- Decide before 13:15 GMT what you will do around the ECB. Two events in 45 minutes can stop out a position twice.
- Size from the stop. The position size calculator shows how much smaller a position needs to be when the stop has to be wider.
Our gold and CPI tool shows how gold reacted to recent inflation releases, which is a useful reference for how big a data-day move can be.
After today: the next inflation tests
Today’s PCE is the first of several data points before the 9 December Fed decision. October CPI follows on 10 November and October PCE on 25 November, both at 13:30 GMT once US clocks change. Our December hike odds guide lists every date and explains how each could move the odds.
Trade it together
Data days go faster with other traders watching the same numbers. In the XAUUSD Global community, members share their plan before PCE, post the numbers and the reaction as they land, and compare notes again when the ECB speaks. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, and you can cancel any time. Join the community and trade today’s PCE and ECB together with us.
Sources
- BEA: release schedule (Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, and GDP advance estimate, Q3 2026, both at 8:30 am on 29 October)
- BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 (August PCE figures)
- FXStreet: United States, sticky inflation meets resilient growth (TD Securities), 26 October 2026
- Yardeni QuickTakes: Economic week ahead, 26–30 October (Cleveland Fed nowcast)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 and press conference opening statement (PDF)
- Yahoo Finance: Fed decision live coverage, 28 October 2026 (85% December odds from Bloomberg data)
- ECB: meeting calendar
- Levels, yields and dollar index: our own calculations from Yahoo Finance daily data (GC=F, ^TNX, DX-Y.NYB), as used on the XAUUSD analysis page and gold forecast
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the PCE report released today?
The BEA releases September personal income and outlays, which includes the PCE price index, at 8:30 am Eastern Time on Thursday 29 October 2026. That is 12:30 GMT, 18:00 in India, 16:30 in Dubai and 20:30 in Singapore. The advance estimate of Q3 GDP is released at the same moment.
What is the forecast for September core PCE?
TD Securities forecasts core PCE up 0.32% on the month and 3.1% on the year, and headline PCE up 0.49% and 3.6%, driven by energy. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, cited by Yardeni Research, also pointed to 3.6% headline and 3.1% core. In August, core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year.
How does PCE affect the gold price?
Mainly through rate expectations. A hotter core reading makes a December Fed hike look more certain, which tends to lift real yields and the dollar and weigh on gold. A softer reading can lower the hike odds and give gold some relief. The reaction depends on the surprise against forecasts, not on whether inflation is high.
Why does core PCE matter more than headline today?
Headline PCE is being pushed up by energy prices, and forecasters already expect that. Core PCE strips out food and energy and shows whether price pressure is spreading. Fed Chair Warsh said on 28 October that the Fed’s job is to make sure price rises in some sectors do not broaden out, which is exactly what core measures.
Is the ECB decision also today?
Yes. The ECB announces its decision at 13:15 GMT, 45 minutes after PCE, with the press conference at 13:45 GMT. That means two market-moving releases in just over an hour, so gold can be pushed around by the dollar more than once this afternoon.
Are the levels in this article targets?
No. They are mechanical reference points calculated from COMEX gold futures daily data: daily and weekly pivots, a statistical weekly band and moving averages. They show where traders often look for reactions, not where price will go. Recheck them on the live analysis page.