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Daily gold digest · 1 November 2026

Gold News, 1 November 2026: 7 stories moving XAUUSD

Gold heads into the first week of November after its worst October since 2008: spot ended Friday near $3,875, about 30% below January’s record, and the market now prices roughly a three-in-four chance of a Fed hike on 9 December. Analysts are watching $3,886 and $3,708 on the downside. Flows are mixed: ETF money left in late October while Chinese imports rose and Indian jewellers report a stronger festive quarter. US clocks went back today, so the week’s US data, ISM on Monday and the jobs report on Friday, lands an hour later for India, Europe and Asia.

Gold spot$3,876.4−131.9 (−3.29%)NextUS ISM manufacturing PMI (October)in 1d 1h · Mon 15:00 GMTWeekendopens in 9h 20mRange$158.9

Gold starts November at a one-year low near $3,875 with a December Fed hike priced at about 75%

01
Technicals

Spot gold ends the week near $3,875, its lowest level in about a year

Kitco quoted spot gold at $3,874.40 an ounce at 2:42 pm ET on Friday, down $146.10 on the day, and The Gold Investor’s weekly report put spot at $3,875.19 for Friday 30 October, down about 7.2% over the month. COMEX futures settled at $3,898.9. Gold rose on the first three days of the week before giving the gains back after the $4,000 level failed, FXStreet noted.

Why it matters for gold:

Spot is the price most retail charts and our live ticker show, and it closed the week below the COMEX settlement because futures carry a premium. Both are now about 30% below January’s record of $5,586.2. Our live gold price page shows spot updating every few seconds; the October review explains how the month unfolded.

Source: Kitco; The Gold Investor

02
Fed

Markets price about a 75% chance of a Fed hike on 9 December after hot PCE and GDP data

The Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% last week, with two policymakers voting for a 25 basis point hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh did not commit to a December move. Since then Q3 GDP came in at 3.4% annualised against a 3.2% forecast, and September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, with core PCE at 3.1%. CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at about 75%, FXStreet reported; FXEmpire cited 74.1%.

Why it matters for gold:

A hike would raise the yield on cash and bonds, the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays nothing. That is why gold kept falling even as the 10-year yield dropped below 5% on Friday. Every data point before 9 December, starting with Friday’s jobs report, now moves those odds. Our Fed and gold guide shows how gold behaved around past decisions.

Source: FXStreet; FXEmpire (CME FedWatch)

03
Technicals

Analysts watch $3,886 and $3,708 after gold breaks its swing lows

FXEmpire’s James Hyerczyk flagged $3,886.46, the 28 October 2025 bottom, as the first downside test, and $3,707.82, the 61.8% retracement of the $2,536.85-$5,602.23 rally, as the next level in play while the weekly close stays below $3,995.81. FXStreet listed support at $3,900, $3,800 and $3,720, resistance at $3,960-$4,000 and the 20-day average near $4,100, with the daily RSI just above 30.

Why it matters for gold:

Friday’s low of $3,879.3 on COMEX briefly traded under $3,886, so that level is already being tested. When several analysts point at the same zone it often becomes a reaction point, but levels are not predictions. Our daily XAUUSD analysis recalculates pivots each session, and the Elliott Wave video shows a separate count pointing near $3,775-$3,790.

Source: FXEmpire; FXStreet

04
ETFs

Gold ETFs see $1.1 billion of outflows, ending a three-month run of inflows

Global gold ETFs had net outflows of $1.1 billion in the week to 23 October, according to BMO data cited in market reports, the first weekly outflow after three months of inflows. A Reuters poll published last week put the median 2026 average gold price forecast at $4,495 an ounce, slightly below the $4,509 of three months earlier.

Why it matters for gold:

ETF holdings are the clearest window into Western investment demand. Outflows during a falling market can add to the selling, while a return to inflows is often one of the first signs that investors see value again. Our gold ETF flows tracker follows the monthly holdings.

Source: Boerse-global.de (BMO data, Reuters poll)

05
Central banks

China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jump 28% to a five-month high

Chinese net gold imports through Hong Kong rose more than 28% in September from August, reaching their highest level in five months, according to figures released last week and cited in market reports. Analysts pointed to that buying, along with central bank demand, as the main support on the other side of the market.

Why it matters for gold:

Hong Kong is only one route into China, so the figure is a partial view, but a sharp rise while Western ETFs were selling shows physical buyers stepping in at lower prices. The People’s Bank of China publishes its own reserve figure around 7 November. Our central bank gold tracker records official buying month by month.

Source: Boerse-global.de (Hong Kong customs data)

06
India

India: the import discount nearly vanishes and listed jewellers report 20-30% revenue growth

The World Gold Council’s India update said the domestic discount to import parity narrowed from an average of $66 an ounce in September to $8 by 16 October, and listed jewellers reported 20-30% year-on-year revenue growth for July-September. Indian gold ETFs took in ₹44.5 billion in September, the most in seven months, while gold imports fell 81% year on year to $1.8 billion. Dhanteras falls on 6 November.

Why it matters for gold:

A shrinking discount means Indian buyers are paying closer to the global price again, a sign that demand is recovering after the September slide. Lower international prices going into Dhanteras and the wedding season could support physical buying. Our gold rate in India page converts spot into rupees per 10 grams.

Source: World Gold Council via Upstox

07
Calendar

US clocks go back today: ISM Monday, midterms Tuesday and the jobs report Friday at 19:00 IST

US daylight saving time ended on Sunday 1 November, so 8:30 am New York releases now land at 13:30 GMT and 19:00 IST. This week: ISM manufacturing on Monday (15:00 GMT, 20:30 IST), the US midterm elections on Tuesday, ISM services on Wednesday, the Bank of England decision on Thursday (12:00 GMT, 17:30 IST) and the October employment report on Friday 6 November.

Why it matters for gold:

The jobs report is the biggest event before the 9 December Fed meeting. FXStreet noted a payrolls figure below about 20,000 could weaken the dollar and help gold, while a strong number would support another hike. Our week ahead has every time in six zones, and the NFP-day study shows how gold moved on 77 past releases.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; FXStreet

← 31 October 2026Live news, calendar & levels

Summaries are written by XAUUSD Global from the linked sources. Educational content only, not financial advice.

Daily surprise · Sunday 1 November 2026

Something new about gold, every day

Today’s gold fact

This week in 2009

On 30 October 2009, COMEX gold futures settled at $1,039.7. The latest settlement ($3,898.9 on 30 Oct 2026) is +275% from there.

Gold in October 2009
Pattern of the day

US CPI release: 13 Sep 2023

US CPI release, 13 Sep 2023: gold fell 0.13% on the day, with a $11.2 range (0.70× its 20-day average). Next day: +0.02%.

See every release in the study

Computed from XAUUSD Global’s own data: COMEX gold futures settlements and hourly bars, and our NFP, CPI and Fed studies. A new pair every day. Past behaviour is history, not a forecast. Education, not signals.

Weekly gold forecast

The levels for the week

How today’s news fits the week: the rule-based bias, the statistical range and the weekly pivot. See how past weeks scored. Education, not signals.

Gold next week week of 2 Nov

Full forecast
  • BiasLean lower
  • Statistical band$3,766 – $3,959
  • Last close$3,862.4
  • Weekly pivot$3,931.3

Rule-based bias and a statistical band for spot XAUUSD, not a prediction. Education, not signals.