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Gold News, 31 October 2026: 7 stories moving XAUUSD

Gold had its worst day of the month on Friday. COMEX futures fell $132.5 to settle at $3,898.9, a new low for 2026, and that left October down 6.9%, its worst October since 2008 in our data. Markets are now shut for the weekend. US clocks go back an hour on Sunday 1 November, so from Monday US data lands at 13:30 GMT (19:00 IST), and next week brings ISM, the midterm elections and the October jobs report.

Gold crashes 3.3% to a 2026 low under $3,900, ending October down 6.9%

01
Technicals

Gold falls 3.3% in a day and breaks below $3,900 for the first time this year

COMEX gold futures settled at $3,898.9 on Friday, down $132.5 or 3.29%, after trading between $4,038.2 and $3,879.3 (Yahoo Finance GC=F data). Spot gold lost about 3.1% to $3,897.09, Coinpaper reported. That is the lowest level in a year and about 30% below January’s record. Silver fell harder, about 6% to roughly $49, its first time under $50 in around 11 months. Reports blamed bets on a December Fed hike, Brent above $117 and selling to raise cash as AI and tech shares slid.

Why it matters for gold:

This was the biggest one-day fall of October, and it came on a day when Treasury yields also fell. That points to forced selling and lost safe-haven status, not a rates story alone. Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper told Yahoo Finance gold needs to hold $3,886, and Friday’s low was $6.7 below it. Our October 2026 month in review puts the day in context.

Source: Coinpaper; Yahoo Finance (GC=F data)

02
Technicals

October ends down 6.9% and the week down 2.7%: gold's worst October since 2008

In our COMEX futures data, gold closed October at $3,898.9, against September’s last close of $4,186.7. That is a fall of $287.8, or 6.87%. Across 26 years of monthly closes, only October 2008 (−18.0%) was a worse October. The week lost $109.0 (2.72%) from the previous Friday’s $4,007.9 on a range of $3,879.3 to $4,097.2. This was gold’s second monthly loss in a row, about 13% below the end of August, and 10.2% down on the year.

Why it matters for gold:

Monthly and weekly closes are the reference points longer-term traders watch. A close at the month’s low, below the July low of $3,963.0, leaves no bounce to point to. Our October monthly archive has every day’s high, low and close, and the monthly returns heatmap puts −6.9% next to every month since 2000.

Source: Yahoo Finance (GC=F daily data, our calculation); Yahoo Finance

03
Jobs

Employment Cost Index rises 0.8% in Q3 as forecast; wages slow to 0.7%

Compensation costs for US civilian workers rose 0.8% in the third quarter, seasonally adjusted, after 0.9% in the second, the BLS reported on Friday at 8:30 am ET (12:30 GMT, 18:00 IST). Wages and salaries rose 0.7% after 0.9%, and benefits rose 0.9%. Over 12 months compensation was up 3.4%, unchanged from June, and wages were up 3.1%. After inflation, wages were 0.6% lower than a year earlier.

Why it matters for gold:

The ECI is the wage gauge the Fed trusts most, because it controls for shifts in who is employed. An in-line, slightly softer quarter does not add to inflation worries, so it does not explain gold’s fall later in the day. Wages running below 3.6% PCE inflation squeeze consumers and could matter for the Fed’s December decision. Next week’s jobs report carries the monthly wage figure; our NFP day guide explains how to prepare for it.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

04
Yields

Yields drop again: 10-year at 4.929%, down 36 basis points in October as gold also falls

The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 4.929% on Friday and the 2-year fell more than 6 basis points to 4.594%, CNBC reported, as investors weighed PCE inflation of 3.6% and the Fed’s hold. In Yahoo Finance data the 10-year ended September at 5.293%, so it lost about 36 basis points in October. The dollar index closed Friday at 101.88, against 101.45 at the end of September, a 0.4% gain for the month. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Friday to 7,580.07.

Why it matters for gold:

In most months, a 36-basis-point fall in yields would lift gold. In October gold fell 6.9% anyway, which shows the usual link to yields broke down this month. December hike odds, oil-driven inflation and selling to cover losses elsewhere outweighed it. Our real yields and dollar tracker shows both drivers live.

Source: CNBC; Yahoo Finance (^TNX, DX-Y.NYB, ^GSPC data)

05
ETFs

GLD sheds 14.6 tonnes in October while the cheaper GLDM adds 6.5 tonnes

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) held 1,041.08 tonnes on 29 October, down from 1,055.70 tonnes at the end of September, according to the issuer’s daily archive. Most of the 14.6-tonne fall came after its October peak of 1,060.18 tonnes on 20 October. Over the same month, SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM) rose from 228.72 to 235.22 tonnes. Reports on Friday also listed ETF outflows among the forces behind the slide.

Why it matters for gold:

Western ETF selling usually goes with falling prices, and October’s pattern was large-fund selling in the week gold lost $4,000. The steady GLDM buying suggests some investors were moving to the cheaper fund rather than leaving gold altogether. Our new gold ETF flows tracker shows these holdings every month since 2004, and it updates from the issuer data.

Source: SPDR Gold Shares issuer archive (via our ETF flows tracker)

06
Central banks

New reserve data: China adds 23 tonnes and Poland 25 tonnes in September

The IMF’s International Liquidity data, published on 30 October, and China’s SAFE reserve figures show central banks were still buying in September. China’s reserves rose 23.0 tonnes to 2,409.6 tonnes and Poland’s rose 24.9 tonnes to 672.9 tonnes. Kazakhstan added 4.8 tonnes, Türkiye 3.9 and the Czech Republic 1.7. Not every country has reported September yet, and India’s figure is still missing.

Why it matters for gold:

Central banks are price-insensitive buyers who tend to add on dips. That is why analysts quoted on Friday still expect a recovery even as investors sell. Monthly buying does not stop daily falls, but it is part of the long-term floor under gold. Our new central bank gold tracker shows every reporting country’s holdings since 2000 from the same IMF and SAFE data.

Source: IMF International Liquidity; SAFE (via our central bank gold tracker)

07
Calendar

Next week: clocks change Sunday, then ISM, the midterms and NFP on 6 November

US daylight saving time ends at 2:00 am on Sunday 1 November, and New York moves to UTC−5. From Monday every 8:30 am ET release lands at 13:30 GMT and 19:00 IST, one hour later than this week. The gold market reopens on Sunday at 6:00 pm ET, which is 23:00 GMT and 04:30 IST on Monday. ISM manufacturing is on Monday at 10:00 am ET (15:00 GMT, 20:30 IST). US polls close from 6:00 pm ET on Tuesday 3 November (23:00 GMT, 04:30 IST Wednesday). The BLS publishes the October jobs report on Friday 6 November at 8:30 am ET (13:30 GMT, 19:00 IST).

Why it matters for gold:

After a $159 range on Friday, gold opens a three-event week from a new low, and weekend gaps have been larger in 2026. Our guides cover weekend gap risk before the midterms, the new trading times after the clock change and the week ahead.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

← 30 October 2026Live news, calendar & levels

Summaries are written by XAUUSD Global from the linked sources. Educational content only, not financial advice.

Weekly gold forecast

The levels for the week

How today’s news fits the week: the rule-based bias, the statistical range and the weekly pivot. See how past weeks scored. Education, not signals.

Gold next week week of 2 Nov

Full forecast
  • BiasLean lower
  • Statistical band$3,788 – $3,981
  • Last close$3,884.9
  • Weekly pivot$3,953.8

Rule-based bias and a statistical band, not a prediction. Education, not signals.