The short answer
The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday 28 October, as markets expected, but the decision was not unanimous: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point hike. The statement dropped September’s language about the hike delivering a “timelier return” to 2% and said instead that more information will guide the next step. At the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance on December, saying he does not believe in forward guidance outside a crisis.
For gold, the result was a whipsaw, not a trend. COMEX gold futures swung across $44 in the first fifteen minutes of the press conference, climbed to $4,097.2 while Warsh spoke, and then drifted back to the $4,040–4,055 area by Thursday morning in Asia. With December hike odds still around 85% after the meeting, the next real test for XAUUSD is today’s PCE inflation report.
What the Fed decided
The official statement was released at 2:00 pm New York time (18:00 GMT, 23:30 IST):
| Item | 28 October 2026 | 16 September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Decision | Hold at 3.75–4.00% | Hike of 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% |
| Vote | 10–2 | 12–0 |
| Dissents | Cook and Hammack, both for a 0.25% hike | None |
| Growth wording | Expanding at a “strong” pace | Expanding at a “solid” pace |
| Forward-looking line | “The accumulation of more information” will help set policy | Hike will support a “timelier return” to 2% |
| Closing line | “The Committee will deliver price stability.” | Same |
There was no dot plot at this meeting. As our December hike odds guide noted yesterday, the next Summary of Economic Projections comes with the December decision.
The statement changes that mattered
Most of the statement was copied word for word from September. The job market, productivity, investment and uncertainty paragraphs did not change. So the market focused on the three differences.
1. Growth: from “solid” to “strong”
A one-word upgrade, but it matters. A Fed that sees strong growth has less reason to worry that higher rates will break the economy. In the press conference, Warsh backed this up: he said first-half GDP growth had been revised up to 2.4% from 1.8%, and that third-quarter growth was likely running above 3%.
2. The forward-looking sentence
In September, the committee said its hike would support a “timelier return” to the 2% goal. That line belonged to a meeting where the Fed acted. In October it was replaced by a sentence saying that “the accumulation of more information” will help the committee decide the right policy stance. That is neither a promise of another hike nor a signal that hiking is over. It is a deliberate decision to keep options open.
3. Two dissents for a hike
The split vote was the most hawkish part of the release. Two voters thought rates should already be higher. In July, three officials voted for a hike two months before the committee raised rates in September, so markets take dissents seriously as an early signal.
Put together: a hawkish-leaning hold with no commitment. That is close to the “says little new” path we set out yesterday, with a hawkish tilt from the vote.
The press conference and December
The opening statement transcript and the Q&A gave traders four useful points:
- No forward guidance. Asked about December, Warsh said, in CNBC’s words, “I don’t believe in forward guidance absent a crisis.” December is open, and the data will decide it.
- Inflation is the priority. He said the meeting focused mainly on price stability, that inflation has been above target for close to six years, and that energy prices had moved higher again in recent weeks.
- Tighter, but not tight. He said financial conditions have tightened since September but that he was “unwilling and unable to call them tight”. That reads as a hint that the Fed does not think its job is done.
- Readiness to act. He said the committee has made clear its readiness to act and has shown its willingness to do so.
He also announced a change to the meeting calendar: one 2027 meeting will be devoted to strategy, with no rate vote and no statement, and he expects two such meetings in 2028.
How did the market read it? According to Bloomberg data reported by Yahoo Finance, bond traders priced about an 85% chance of a December hike after the meeting, roughly where it stood before. Markets also priced the policy rate rising to nearly 4.7% by September 2027. The Fed did not move the December number, and our guide to reading CME FedWatch shows how to check it yourself as the data arrive.
How gold actually moved: the hourly data
The table uses Yahoo Finance hourly and 15-minute data for COMEX gold futures (GC=F), the December contract. Times are GMT. Futures trade a few dollars above spot XAUUSD, so your platform’s numbers will differ slightly, but the shape of the move is the same.
| GMT (28 Oct) | What was happening | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00–18:00 | The hour before the statement | $4,055.2 | $4,055.8 | $4,050.2 | $4,053.5 |
| 18:00–19:00 | Statement at 18:00; press conference from 18:30 | $4,054.7 | $4,081.2 | $4,036.9 | $4,046.1 |
| 19:00–20:00 | Press conference Q&A | $4,046.4 | $4,090.0 | $4,040.2 | $4,089.3 |
| 20:00–21:00 | After the press conference | $4,089.1 | $4,097.2 | $4,069.8 | $4,081.2 |
Statement hour
The statement itself barely moved gold. In the first half hour, from 18:00 to 18:30, futures traded between $4,042.5 and $4,061.2 and stood at $4,049.4 at 18:30, only $4.1 below the pre-statement close of $4,053.5.
The big move came when the press conference began. The 15-minute bar from 18:30 to 18:45 spiked to $4,081.2 and dropped to $4,036.9, a $44.3 range in fifteen minutes. That is about two-thirds of gold’s average full-day range of $66.1 over the previous 14 sessions. It then fell back to $4,046.1 by 19:00. The statement-hour bar closed $8.6 lower than it opened, after covering the whole $44.3 range.
Press-conference hour
The 19:00–20:00 bar, while Warsh took questions, rose $43.2 (+1.07%) from the 19:00 open to close at $4,089.3. The evening high of $4,097.2 came in the next bar. At the 21:00 GMT break, futures were $27.7 (+0.68%) above the pre-statement close.
The fade into Asia
The gains did not last. After the daily break, futures reopened near $4,081 and slipped through the Asian session, touching $4,047.0 and trading near $4,057 at 05:30 GMT. Reuters, via Investing.com, put spot gold down 0.7% at $4,038.49 at 04:51 GMT, with the dollar index slightly higher at 102.20. A Reuters report the same morning noted that gold was down 2.5% in October and had hit its lowest level since July this month.
The likely reason for the fade: yields. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.045% in Yahoo Finance data, up from 4.993%, its highest close since 21 October. Gold struggles to keep a rally when long-term yields are rising, whatever the Fed says.
How this fits the 14-decision history
Yesterday’s post on how gold moved after the last 14 Fed decisions found no reliable direction (7 up, 7 down on decision day) but a tendency for wider ranges and bigger moves the day after. Using the same method and the same GC=F daily data, here is how 28 October compares:
| Measure | 28 Oct 2026 | 14-decision pattern |
|---|---|---|
| Close-to-close on decision day | −0.56% ($4,074.6 to $4,051.6) | 7 up, 7 down |
| Decision-day high-low range | $60.3 ($4,036.9 to $4,097.2) | See ratio below |
| Range vs 20-day average ($69.7) | 0.87× | Median 1.12×, above 1.0× on 8 of 14 days |
Two honest observations:
- On the daily measure, this was not a wide Fed day. The range ratio of 0.87× sits below the median. But the whole of the day’s range, both the $4,036.9 low and the $4,097.2 high, was set after the statement. The quiet morning hid how lively the evening was.
- The daily close did not capture the reaction. Yahoo’s daily close of $4,051.6 sits almost exactly at the pre-statement price in the hourly data, so the evening rally and the Asian fade fall outside it. This is the timing problem the history post warned about, and it is why the day-after move often looks bigger. Today’s bar will show the true reaction, with PCE and the ECB layered on top.
So the 15th data point adds one more “down” decision day and one more example of a two-way, reversal-prone Fed night.
What to watch before 9 December
Warsh said the data will decide December, so the calendar matters more than usual. All times GMT; US clocks go back on 1 November, so US releases move an hour later in GMT after that.
| Date | Event | GMT | Why it matters for gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct | September PCE inflation and Q3 GDP | 12:30 | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the first test after the hold |
| Thu 29 Oct | ECB decision | 13:15 | EUR/USD and the dollar index; see our ECB guide |
| Fri 6 Nov | October jobs report | 13:30 | Labour market strength |
| Tue 10 Nov | October CPI | 13:30 | Headline inflation after September’s 3.7% |
| Wed 18 Nov | FOMC minutes | 19:00 | How many officials lean towards a hike |
| Wed 25 Nov | October PCE | 13:30 | Last PCE before the meeting |
| Fri 4 Dec | November jobs report | 13:30 | Last jobs report before the decision |
| Wed 9 Dec | FOMC decision, projections and dot plot | 19:00 | The December decision itself |
Our economic calendar for gold traders lists every date with local times.
After a non-committal Fed, gold can be pulled hard in both directions by each data release. Ranges around PCE, jobs and CPI days may be wider than usual. Size positions from your stop, use the position size calculator, and remember that a reversal like last night’s can stop out a well-reasoned trade.
Three lessons from last night
- The first candle lied. The statement barely moved gold, and the first press-conference spike went both ways within fifteen minutes. The FOMC day playbook suggests waiting for the settled reaction, and last night showed why.
- Yields had the final word. Gold rallied while Warsh spoke but could not hold the move with the 10-year yield above 5%. Watching yields alongside gold, for example on our real yields and dollar tracker, would have flagged that the rally lacked support.
- No guidance means more data risk. December is now in the hands of PCE, jobs and CPI. Each one can move the hike odds, and each one can move XAUUSD.
Trade it together
Fed nights like this one are easier to handle with other traders reading the same statement and charts. In the XAUUSD Global community, members post their plan before big releases, compare notes on the wording and the reaction live, and review the move afterwards. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, and you can cancel any time. Join the community and trade the run of data into December with us.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 28 October 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 16 September 2026
- Federal Reserve: Chair Warsh’s press conference opening statement, 28 October 2026 (PDF)
- CNBC: Warsh on a December hike, 28 October 2026
- Yahoo Finance: Fed decision live coverage, 28 October 2026 (85% December odds from Bloomberg data, yields, market reaction)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Gold slips after Fed holds rates, 29 October 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar
- Gold, yields and dollar data: Yahoo Finance hourly, 15-minute and daily data for GC=F, ^TNX and DX-Y.NYB, downloaded 29 October 2026; ranges and averages are our own calculations, using the method on our XAUUSD analysis page
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
Did the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
No. On 28 October 2026 the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%, after raising it by a quarter point in September. The vote was 10–2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented because they wanted a 25-basis-point hike at this meeting.
What did Warsh say about a December rate hike?
He did not commit either way. Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance outside a crisis, and that the information the Fed receives over the coming period will help it decide where policy should be. He also said inflation is too high and that the committee has shown its willingness to act. After the meeting, bond traders still priced about an 85% chance of a December hike, according to Bloomberg data reported by Yahoo Finance.
How did gold react to the Fed decision?
It whipsawed. In Yahoo Finance data for COMEX gold futures, the 18:00 GMT hourly bar swung between $4,036.9 and $4,081.2 and closed $8.6 lower at $4,046.1. The 19:00 GMT bar, during the press conference, rose $43.2 to $4,089.3, and the evening high was $4,097.2. By early Thursday in Asia, spot gold was down about 0.7% near $4,038, Reuters reported.
What changed in the Fed statement compared with September?
Three things. Growth was upgraded from a ‘solid’ to a ‘strong’ pace. September’s line that the hike would support a ‘timelier return’ to 2% was replaced by wording that ‘the accumulation of more information’ will help the committee choose its stance. And there were two dissents in favour of a hike, against a unanimous 12–0 vote in September.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next decision is on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 2:00 pm New York time, which is 19:00 GMT and 00:30 IST on 10 December, because US clocks go back on 1 November. That meeting brings new economic projections and a dot plot. The minutes of the October meeting are due on 18 November.
Is this a signal to buy or sell gold?
No. This article explains what happened and how the main channels, real yields and the dollar, work. The numbers come from published sources and real price data. Any trade decision needs your own plan, levels and risk limits, and leveraged gold trading can lose money quickly.