Gold’s record in our data is a daily settlement of $5,318.4 on January 29, 2026, for COMEX gold futures. On October 23 the latest close in our history file was $4,020.8, and Reuters reported that spot gold traded below $4,000 that day for the first time since mid-July. That is a drawdown of about 24.4% in nine months, after a year in which gold rose 64.4% (2025, on our yearly data).
You may see a higher record quoted elsewhere. Intraday highs and spot quotes run above daily settlements, which is why our earlier article on why gold is down in 2026 uses a higher peak. This article sticks to one consistent series so the numbers can be checked on our gold price history and all-time high pages.
It also avoids blaming any one actor. Where a cause is suggested, it is because the data moved with the price, and where a source said something, it is named.
The drawdown at a glance
| Month-end | Gold close | 10-yr real yield* | Dollar index (DXY)* | US CPI y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | $4,745.1 | 1.90% | 96.99 | 2.39% |
| Feb 2026 | $5,247.9 | 1.72% | 97.61 | 2.41% |
| Mar 2026 | $4,647.6 | 2.13% | 100.51 (Mar 30) | 3.26% |
| Jun 2026 | $4,038.5 | 2.18% (Jun 26) | 101.19 | 3.53% |
| Aug 2026 | $4,481.5 | 2.42% | 99.70 (Aug 28) | 3.40% |
| Sep 2026 | $4,186.7 | 2.83% (Sep 25) | 101.45 | 3.74% |
| Oct 2026 (to 23rd) | $4,020.8 | 2.76% (Oct 21) | 101.67 | n/a |
*Nearest available reading in our data. Real yield is the weekly 10-year TIPS yield from FRED (DFII10); DXY is the ICE dollar index close; CPI is from the BLS.
Three lines did most of the work: real yields rose by about one percentage point, the dollar index rose by about five points from its January low, and inflation jumped after February. You can follow the first two live on our real yields and dollar tool.
Leg 1: the January reversal
Gold went into the end of January in a near-vertical climb: from $5,082.6 on January 27 to $5,303.6 on the 28th and the $5,318.4 record on the 29th. On January 30 it settled at $4,745.1, a one-day fall of 10.8%, and on February 2 it closed at $4,652.6.
The macro data barely moved that week. The 10-year real yield was about 1.90% and the dollar index was near its low. What did move was positioning. In the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data on our COT report tracker, large speculators held a net long of 251,238 contracts on January 13, with open interest of 527,455. By February 10 the net long was 160,012 and open interest 404,391. A fall that large in both, alongside the price drop, is consistent with crowded long positions being closed. Our guide on how to read the COT report explains these figures.
Lesson from leg 1: a market that rises vertically on heavy positioning can fall sharply without any change in the fundamentals.
Leg 2: the March break as inflation returned
Gold recovered quickly. It closed February at $5,247.9 and settled at $5,311.6 on March 2, just $6.8 short of the record. Then it fell to $4,376.3 on March 26, a 17.6% drop in under four weeks. March 2026 was gold’s worst March in our 10-year seasonality data, at −11.44%.
The backdrop had changed. Reuters has described the US-led war with Iran as beginning in February, and US inflation jumped soon after: CPI went from 2.41% in February to 3.26% in March, 3.81% in April and 4.25% in May. The 10-year real yield rose from 1.72% at the end of February to 2.13% in late March, and the dollar index climbed from about 97.6 to above 100.
This is the key to the whole year. War usually helps gold as a haven, but this war raised oil prices, and oil raised inflation. Higher inflation meant markets started to price Fed tightening, which lifted real yields, the main cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. Our guides to gold and oil and real yields and gold explain both links.
Leg 3: the grind to $4,000 in June and July
April and May were relatively calm, with month-end closes of $4,629.6 and $4,593.0. In June the slide resumed: gold closed at $4,354.4 on June 16 and at $4,038.9 on June 29, and in July it made its lowest close of the year at $3,992.1 on July 16.
Kitco headlines from late June describe a market resetting around Fed hike odds, and the data fit: the real yield rose from 2.19% in early June to 2.31% in mid-July, and the dollar index rose above 101. Speculators were not the problem this time. The net long rose from about 176,000 contracts in early June to about 194,000 by June 30, so this leg was driven more by rates than by a positioning flush.
The August rebound that didn’t last
Gold then rallied hard, to a settlement of $4,697.8 on August 24, up 17.7% from the July low. The real yield was steady around 2.4%, the dollar index slipped below 100 by early September and speculators added longs, taking the net position to about 243,000 contracts on August 25.
It is worth remembering this rally when reading about the drawdown. A falling trend in 2026 has included sharp counter-moves, and a month-long rise did not mean the drivers had turned.
Leg 4: the Fed hikes and yields break 5%
September brought the event markets had spent months pricing. On September 16 the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.29% at the end of September, the 10-year real yield to 2.91% on October 9, and the dollar index to 102.58 on October 12, its highest close in our one-year data.
Gold fell from $4,481.5 at the end of August to $4,186.7 at the end of September. In October, oil-driven inflation stayed in focus: September CPI rose 0.6% on the month, and Brent rose above $117 a barrel on October 23, according to Kitco. Reuters reported that spot gold dropped below $4,000 that day, on course for its worst week since June. Our guide to Fed rate hikes and gold covers why hikes usually weigh on the price.
One detail stands out. In the final week, the dollar index actually fell slightly and the 10-year yield eased, yet gold still dropped about 3.8%. Inflation fears tied to oil, and selling linked to a sharp fall in AI stocks, mattered more that week than the usual drivers. Correlations are tendencies, not rules.
What has not changed
Not every signal turned against gold:
- ETF holdings are at records. The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF holdings rose 67 tonnes in September to a record 4,256 tonnes, with about US$31bn of inflows in Q3. Kitco commentary in October said ETFs had added metal for 14 straight weeks.
- Central banks are still buyers. The same Kitco commentary put central bank purchases at roughly 80 tonnes a month.
- Physical demand responds to lower prices. Reuters reported that Indian buying picked up during Dussehra as prices fell.
- The long view. Even after the drawdown, our data show gold higher than at the end of 2024 ($2,641.0).
That mix, long-term buyers steady while futures traders and rate-sensitive money sell, explains why some analysts quoted by Kitco in October described the market as caught between short-term technical selling and robust longer-term demand.
How to use this as a trader
- Watch real yields and the dollar together. In our data gold’s 250-day correlation with the 10-year real yield is −0.44 and with the dollar index −0.37. The gold correlations tool updates these.
- Respect positioning. Leg 1 shows how fast a crowded long can unwind. Check the COT tracker before assuming a dip is cheap.
- Use levels, not narratives. The gold forecast for next week gives mechanical levels and if/then scenarios rather than a call.
- Size for the volatility. Gold’s 60-day average daily range was $94.6 on October 23. Wider ranges need smaller positions, which the position size calculator works out for you.
If markets stop pricing further hikes, real yields and the dollar would usually ease, which has historically been supportive for gold. If inflation keeps rising with oil, the pressure seen in 2026 could persist. This article does not predict which happens.
Educational content only, not financial advice. Data: COMEX gold futures daily settlements via Yahoo Finance, FRED, the BLS and the CFTC as published on our tools; other figures as attributed.
Frequently asked questions
How much has gold fallen from its 2026 high?
In our COMEX gold futures data, the record daily settlement was $5,318.4 on January 29, 2026. On October 23 the latest reading in our history file was $4,020.8, a drawdown of about 24.4%. Intraday and spot records quoted elsewhere are higher, so percentages differ slightly by source.
What is the main reason gold fell in 2026?
No single cause explains it. In the data, the fall came with a rise in the 10-year real yield from about 1.90% in late January to 2.76–2.91% in October, a firmer dollar index, US inflation that jumped after February and a Fed that raised rates in September. Oil-driven inflation is the thread linking most of these.
Why didn't the war with Iran push gold higher?
Wars usually bring safe-haven buying, but this one also pushed oil and inflation up. Higher inflation raised expectations of Fed hikes and lifted real yields, which raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. In 2026 that channel has mostly outweighed haven demand.
Did investors sell their gold ETFs during the drop?
Not on the World Gold Council’s figures. Global gold ETF holdings rose to a record 4,256 tonnes in September 2026, and Kitco commentary in October said ETFs had added metal for 14 straight weeks. The heavier selling showed up in futures positioning and in short-term trading.
Is gold in a bear market?
A fall of 20% or more from a peak is often called a bear market, and gold’s drawdown is about 24% on our data. That label describes the past, not the future. Gold is still up sharply on two years ago, and the drivers that pushed it down could change direction.
What would need to change for gold to recover?
On the evidence of past cycles, markets would probably need to stop pricing further Fed hikes, which would usually bring real yields and the dollar down. Lower oil prices would help that happen. Our forecast page and real yields tool track these conditions without predicting them.
Sources and further reading
- CME Group — Gold futures overview — Contract specifications and trading hours for COMEX gold
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders — Weekly futures positioning, including gold
- Investor.gov — Stop order — How stop orders work, and their limits in fast markets
External sites are independent of XAUUSD Global. Check dates and data yourself.