FOMC minutes in gold trading
The FOMC minutes are the detailed record of a Fed policy meeting, released three weeks after the decision; they can move gold by revealing the debate.
Also called Fed minutes, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
The FOMC minutes are the official summary of the discussion at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. They are published at 2:00 p.m. New York time, three weeks after each decision, and describe how members viewed the economy, inflation, the balance sheet and the outlook for policy.
How it applies to gold trading
The statement and press conference give the decision and the chair’s message; the minutes show how many members leaned hawkish or dovish and what conditions they mentioned for changing course. Phrases such as “many participants” or “a few participants” are read closely. If the minutes reveal more support for higher rates than the press conference suggested, yields and the dollar can rise and gold fall; the reverse can lift gold.
Reactions are usually smaller than on decision day, but the release lands at 2 p.m. New York time, in a thinner part of the US session, so spikes of several dollars are common.
Worked example
Example (hypothetical numbers): the press conference sounded balanced and gold has drifted up to 4,040. The minutes show “most participants” saw further tightening as possibly appropriate. Gold drops to 4,022 within 15 minutes. A trader long 0.20 lots from 4,035 with a $10 stop is stopped for $200.
A common mistake
Forgetting that the minutes are scheduled. They appear on the calendar and deserve the same caution as any high-impact release.
See also: FOMC, Hawkish and dovish, Fed blackout period, Economic calendar.
Frequently asked questions
When are the FOMC minutes released?
Three weeks after each FOMC decision, at 2:00 p.m. New York time.
Do the Fed minutes move gold?
Sometimes. If they reveal a more hawkish or dovish committee than the press conference suggested, yields and the dollar adjust and gold follows.
Are the minutes more important than the FOMC statement?
Usually not. The decision, statement and press conference move gold most. The minutes add detail and occasionally shift expectations when they differ from the chair’s message.