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Daily gold digest

Gold News, 29 October 2026: 7 stories moving XAUUSD

The Fed kept rates at 3.75–4.00% last night, with two officials voting for a hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give any guidance on December. Gold futures swung across a $44 range in the statement hour, climbed above $4,090 during the press conference, then gave the gains back in Asia. Today brings US PCE inflation and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (18:00 IST) and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT (18:45 IST).

Fed holds 10–2 with two hike dissents; gold whipsaws, then slips toward $4,040 before PCE and ECB

01
Fed

Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a hike

The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, after hiking in September. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point increase, so the vote was 10–2, against 12–0 in September. The statement upgraded growth from a ‘solid’ to a ‘strong’ pace. It replaced September’s line that the hike would ‘support a timelier return’ to 2% with wording that ‘the accumulation of more information’ will help the Committee set policy.

Why it matters for gold:

Two hike dissents show the pressure inside the committee, but the new wording gives no promise of a next move. That left December open rather than locked in, which is why XAUUSD swung both ways instead of trending. Our Fed decision analysis for gold compares the two statements line by line, and the glossary explains hawkish and dovish.

Source: Federal Reserve

02
Fed

Warsh rules out forward guidance on December; markets still price about 85% odds of a hike

At the press conference, Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance outside a crisis, so he gave no steer on the 9 December meeting. He said inflation is too high and that the Committee has shown it is ready to act. Bond traders priced about an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike in December after the meeting, roughly unchanged from before, Yahoo Finance reported, citing Bloomberg data. Warsh also announced that one 2027 meeting will be for strategy only, with no rate vote, and that he expects two such meetings in 2028.

Why it matters for gold:

With no guidance, December now rests on the data, starting with today’s PCE report. Hike odds stuck in the mid-80s keep real yields firm, which is the main headwind for gold this autumn. Our guide to December Fed hike odds sets out the paths, and how to read CME FedWatch shows how to track the number yourself.

Source: Yahoo Finance

03
Technicals

Gold futures swing $44 in the statement hour, rally to $4,097 during the presser, then fade

In Yahoo Finance hourly data for COMEX gold futures (GC=F), the 18:00 GMT bar opened at $4,054.7, swung between $4,036.9 and $4,081.2 and closed at $4,046.1. The 19:00 bar rose from $4,046.4 to $4,089.3, and the evening high of $4,097.2 came just after 20:00 GMT. By early Thursday in Asia the gains were gone: spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,038.49 at 04:51 GMT, Reuters reported via Investing.com, as the dollar index edged up to 102.20.

Why it matters for gold:

The pattern was a classic Fed-night whipsaw: a fast two-way spike as the press conference began, a rally while Warsh spoke, and a reversal by the Asian session. It shows why the settled reaction, not the first candle, is the one to judge. Our FOMC day playbook covers this, and the XAUUSD analysis page puts today’s daily pivot at $4,061.9.

Source: Yahoo Finance (GC=F hourly data); Reuters via Investing.com

04
Inflation

PCE day: TD Securities expects core PCE at 0.32% m/m and 3.1% y/y, headline 3.6%

The BEA releases September personal income and outlays, including the PCE price index, and the advance estimate of Q3 GDP at 8:30 am ET today, which is 12:30 GMT and 18:00 IST. TD Securities forecasts headline PCE up 0.49% on the month and 3.6% on the year, driven by energy, and core PCE up 0.32% and 3.1%. It sees Q3 GDP growth at 2.5%, up from 2.2%, which it says is below consensus.

Why it matters for gold:

Warsh said the Fed wants more information before its next step, and PCE is the first big piece. A core reading above forecast would back the December hike already priced and could pressure gold; a softer core would give XAUUSD room to breathe. Our dated guide to today’s PCE release has times and if/then paths, and Gold and PCE inflation explains the gauge.

Source: FXStreet (TD Securities)

05
Central banks

ECB expected to hold at 2.50% at 13:15 GMT; the wording on December is the focus

The ECB announces its decision at 14:15 CET (13:15 GMT) today, with Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT. All but three of 73 economists in a Reuters poll taken on 5–8 October expected the deposit rate to stay at 2.50%, and 64 expected a hike in December. Euro-area inflation hit 3.8% in September, a three-year high, and ING’s Carsten Brzeski told LiveSquawk that the wording around December will be crucial. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday.

Why it matters for gold:

Gold reacts to the ECB mainly through EUR/USD, because the euro carries 57.6% of the dollar index. A firmer euro on a hawkish message would tend to weaken the dollar and support XAUUSD; a dovish turn would do the opposite. Our ECB decision guide for gold traders has today’s times and paths, and how ECB and BoJ decisions move gold explains the mechanics.

Source: LiveSquawk

06
Yields

10-year yield closes back above 5% at 5.045% on Fed day; dollar index steady near 102.2

The 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 5% on Wednesday and reached about 5.04% before the press conference, Yahoo Finance reported, with the 30-year near 5.33% earlier in the session. In Yahoo Finance daily data the 10-year closed at 5.045%, its highest close since 21 October, up from 4.993% on Tuesday. The dollar index slipped against the euro during the press conference and closed at 102.19, little changed from 102.32.

Why it matters for gold:

Higher long-term yields do some of the Fed’s tightening for it, a point Warsh made about tighter financial conditions, and they raise the cost of holding gold. That helps explain why XAUUSD could not keep its press-conference rally. Our real yields and dollar tracker shows both drivers, and real yields and gold explains the link.

Source: Yahoo Finance

07
Central banks

Goldman estimates central banks bought 79 tonnes of gold in August, 25 tonnes by China

Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks bought 79 tonnes of gold in August, with China accounting for 25 tonnes, Reuters reported in its gold market wrap. The same report said gold had fallen 2.5% in October and touched its lowest level since July. A bullion dealer quoted by Reuters said sustained central bank demand could help support prices over the long term.

Why it matters for gold:

Official buying is the slow, steady demand under the market, while the Fed and yields drive the day-to-day moves. It does not stop sell-offs, but it is one reason dips have been bought this year. Our glossary entry on central bank buying explains how it is measured, and the news hub tracks the latest World Gold Council figures.

Source: Reuters (via Investing.com)

← 28 October 2026Live news, calendar & levels

Summaries are written by XAUUSD Global from the linked sources. Educational content only, not financial advice.

Weekly gold forecast

The levels for the week

How today’s news fits the week: the rule-based bias, the statistical range and the weekly pivot. See how past weeks scored. Education, not signals.

Gold this week week of 26 Oct

Full forecast
  • BiasRange
  • Statistical band$3,906 – $4,110
  • Last close$4,007.9
  • Weekly pivot$4,069.4

Rule-based bias and a statistical band, not a prediction. Education, not signals.