The short answer
The ECB announces its decision today at 14:15 CET (13:15 GMT, 18:45 IST), with Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT. A hold at 2.50% is close to certain: 70 of 73 economists in a Reuters poll expected it, and money markets priced almost nothing for this meeting. The question is the wording on December, where 64 of the same 73 economists expected a hike.
For gold, the ECB works through EUR/USD and the dollar index. A hawkish message that lifts the euro would tend to weaken the dollar and support XAUUSD; a softer message would tend to do the opposite. Because the ECB lands 45 minutes after US PCE, the euro reaction can either add to or cancel the PCE move in gold. For the evergreen background on how ECB and Bank of Japan decisions reach gold, see how ECB and BoJ decisions move gold. This page is the dated version for today.
ECB decision time in your zone
The ECB says its monetary policy decisions are published in a press release at 14:15 CET. Its meeting calendar lists 29 October as Day 2 of the Frankfurt meeting, followed by the press conference.
| Place | Decision | Press conference |
|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt (CET) | 14:15 | 14:45 |
| London (GMT) | 13:15 | 13:45 |
| New York (ET) | 9:15 am | 9:45 am |
| Dubai (GST) | 17:15 | 17:45 |
| India (IST) | 18:45 | 19:15 |
| Singapore (SGT) | 21:15 | 21:45 |
New York is still on daylight time until 1 November, which is why the ECB lands at 9:15 am ET this week rather than the usual 8:15 am. Some previews published the 8:15 am figure; the conversion from 13:15 GMT gives 9:15 am EDT.
The afternoon sequence today, all GMT: 12:30 US PCE and Q3 GDP, 13:15 ECB decision, 13:45 Lagarde press conference. Our PCE guide for today covers the first release.
Where the ECB stands
| Item | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Deposit rate | 2.50% | LiveSquawk, Newsquawk |
| Main refinancing rate | 2.65% | LiveSquawk |
| 2026 moves | Hikes in June and September; the June move was the first in almost three years | LiveSquawk |
| September hike | 25 basis points, unanimous | Newsquawk |
| Euro-area inflation | 3.8% in September, a three-year high, against a 3.6% consensus and 3.2% in August | Newsquawk, LiveSquawk |
| Energy inflation | 18.9% year on year in September | Newsquawk |
| Market pricing | About 1–2 bp for today; about 20 bp of tightening by the end of 2026 | Newsquawk |
The pattern is familiar from the Fed’s side of the Atlantic: energy prices have pushed headline inflation well above the 2% target, and the central bank is trying to stop that spreading into wider prices without choking growth. Newsquawk noted that the October flash PMI was still consistent with growth of around 0.3% a quarter, but that France’s PMIs had fallen into contraction.
What forecasters expect
The clearest named forecast is the Reuters poll of 73 economists, taken on 5–8 October:
- 70 of 73 expected a hold at 2.50% today.
- 64 of 73 expected a 25-basis-point hike in December, a sharp turn from the previous month’s survey.
- 40 of 70 saw the deposit rate peaking at 2.75%, while 24 expected 3.00%.
More recent previews agree on a hold. LiveSquawk quoted ING’s Carsten Brzeski saying the wording around December will be crucial. Newsquawk expected the statement to stay data-dependent and “meeting by meeting”, and listed the main themes for the press conference:
- December. Does Lagarde leave a hike clearly in play, or lean on uncertainty?
- France. The French 10-year yield was 5.14% after 21 October, Newsquawk said, and questions on French bond spreads are likely.
- Energy. Dutch TTF gas near €100 per megawatt-hour, well above the €75 used in the ECB’s adverse scenario, raises the risk of second-round inflation effects.
- Sources stories after the press conference. Reports citing unnamed officials can clarify or soften what is said on the record, and can move the euro an hour or more after the event.
How an ECB decision reaches gold
Gold is priced in US dollars, so the ECB affects it indirectly. The chain is short:
ECB message → EUR/USD → dollar index (DXY) → XAUUSD
The euro is the largest weight in the dollar index at 57.6%, so a move in EUR/USD shifts the index more than any other currency. A weaker dollar index usually makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers and tends to lift XAUUSD; a stronger dollar index tends to weigh on it. The euro was around $1.114 early on Thursday in Yahoo Finance data, after a soft few sessions for the single currency, and the dollar index closed Wednesday at 102.19.
A worked example (hypothetical)
Suppose Lagarde sounds firmer than expected on December and EUR/USD rises 0.5%. With a 57.6% weight, that alone would pull the dollar index down by roughly 0.29% (0.5 × 0.576), all else equal. If gold were at $4,057 and followed the weaker dollar, the effect might be worth something in the region of $10–15, but only if nothing else moves. In practice, US yields, the PCE reaction and positioning can easily outweigh it.
The point: an ECB surprise moves gold most when it is large and when it points the same way as the US news. A small euro move against a big PCE surprise will usually lose.
Our gold vs dollar index guide explains the dollar link in detail, and the gold correlations tool shows how closely gold has tracked the dollar and other markets recently. That link changes over time, which is one more reason to treat the example above as an illustration, not a rule.
If/then paths for the afternoon
These are not predictions or trade recommendations. They show how the usual channels would work so you can plan before the release. Today stacks two events within an hour, so the first move after the ECB may simply be the market digesting PCE. Expect wider spreads and fast reversals.
The levels come from our XAUUSD analysis page, calculated from COMEX gold futures daily data at 05:30 GMT on 29 October (futures at $4,057.2): daily pivot $4,061.9, R1 $4,086.9, R2 $4,122.2, S1 $4,026.6, S2 $4,001.6, weekly pivot $4,069.4. Spot XAUUSD will be a few dollars lower.
If the ECB holds and clearly signals December (inflation risks to the upside, a hike described as likely if data confirm), the euro could firm and the dollar index ease. On its own that would tend to support gold. If PCE was soft too, the two would point the same way, and daily R1 at $4,086.9 and last night’s high near $4,097 are the first areas above, then R2 at $4,122.2.
If the ECB holds and sounds non-committal (data-dependent, meeting by meeting, little new), the euro reaction may be small and gold is likely to stay driven by PCE and US yields. Gold could stay around the daily pivot at $4,061.9 and weekly pivot at $4,069.4.
If the ECB sounds dovish (stressing growth risks, French bond stress or a wait-and-see approach that pushes December back), the euro could weaken and the dollar index rise. That would tend to weigh on gold, with daily S1 at $4,026.6 and the $4,000–4,002 area below.
If the ECB hikes today, it would be a major surprise against the poll and market pricing. Expect a sharp euro rally and a fast two-way move in gold.
If PCE and the ECB point in opposite directions, for example a hot core PCE with a hawkish ECB, the US number usually dominates, because it feeds straight into US rate expectations and Treasury yields.
And the Bank of Japan on Friday
The BoJ’s two-day meeting ends on Friday 30 October, usually with the decision in the Asian morning. Reuters reported earlier this week that the BoJ was expected to hold at 1.25% while signalling that a hike could come as soon as December, with analysts in a Reuters poll expecting a move to 1.5% then. The yen carries 13.6% of the dollar index, so a BoJ surprise can move gold the same way the ECB can, through the dollar. Our ECB and BoJ guide covers both banks.
A routine for today
- Note EUR/USD and the dollar index at 12:25 GMT, before PCE, and again at 13:10 GMT, before the ECB. That separates the two reactions.
- Read the ECB statement for December wording first, then listen for repeated questions on it in the press conference.
- Check whether the euro and gold agree. A euro rally with gold falling usually means US yields are doing the work.
- Plan your risk for two events, not one. A stop that survives PCE can still be hit by the ECB.
- Use the position size calculator to keep risk fixed if your stop has to be wider than usual.
The Fed’s message from last night, covered in what the Fed decision means for gold, is the backdrop for both releases: no guidance on December, and data in charge.
Trade it together
Two central banks and a major US inflation report inside 24 hours is a lot to follow alone. In the XAUUSD Global community, members share their plans before PCE and the ECB, post the numbers and the euro reaction as they come in, and review the afternoon together. No signals: everyone brings their own levels and reasoning. Your first month is free, then $19.99 a month, and you can cancel any time. Join the community and trade today’s ECB decision with us.
Sources
- ECB: meeting calendar (29 October 2026 meeting and press conference)
- ECB: monetary policy decisions (published at 14:15 CET)
- LiveSquawk: ECB set to hold rates despite rising inflation as growth concerns mount, 28 October 2026
- Newsquawk: Preview, ECB policy announcement due 29 October 2026
- RTÉ (Reuters poll): ECB to hike rates again in December, 8 October 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com: Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause to leave scope for December hike
- Dollar index weights: U.S. Dollar Index
- EUR/USD, dollar index and gold levels: our own calculations from Yahoo Finance data (EURUSD=X, DX-Y.NYB, GC=F), as used on the XAUUSD analysis page
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the ECB decision today?
The ECB publishes its decision at 14:15 CET on Thursday 29 October 2026, which is 13:15 GMT, 9:15 am in New York, 18:45 in India, 17:15 in Dubai and 21:15 in Singapore. President Christine Lagarde’s press conference starts 30 minutes later, at 13:45 GMT.
Will the ECB raise rates today?
It is not expected to. In a Reuters poll of 73 economists taken on 5–8 October, 70 expected the deposit rate to stay at 2.50%. Newsquawk said money markets priced only one to two basis points of tightening for this meeting. A hike would be a big surprise.
How does the ECB decision affect gold?
Mostly through the euro and the dollar. The euro carries a 57.6% weight in the US dollar index, so a hawkish ECB that lifts EUR/USD tends to weaken the dollar index, which usually supports gold priced in dollars. A dovish ECB that knocks the euro lower tends to strengthen the dollar, which can weigh on XAUUSD.
Why does the ECB meet on the same day as US PCE?
It is a calendar coincidence this month. The ECB set its 2026 meeting dates in advance, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis scheduled the September PCE report and the Q3 GDP estimate for 29 October. The result is two market-moving releases 45 minutes apart: PCE at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT.
What will markets watch in the ECB press conference?
Mainly the wording on December: whether Lagarde keeps a hike clearly on the table after September’s 3.8% inflation reading. Analysts also expect questions on French bond yields, higher energy prices and their risk of feeding into wider inflation, and the ECB’s leadership, since Lagarde’s term ends in 2027.
Does the Bank of Japan also decide this week?
Yes. The BoJ’s two-day meeting ends on Friday 30 October. Reuters reported that it was expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25% but signal that a hike could come as soon as December. The yen is the second-largest weight in the dollar index at 13.6%.