The short answer
We tested the New York opening range breakout (ORB) on gold: mark the high and low of the first 15 or 30 minutes after 9:30 am New York time, then buy a break of the high or sell a break of the low, with the stop at the other side of the range.
- 15-minute range, 2R target: 49 sessions, 36.7% winners, −$114 per ounce after costs.
- 15-minute range, 1R target: 55.1% winners, break-even (+$0.10).
- 30-minute range, 2R target: 48 sessions, 35.4% winners, −$209 per ounce.
- Two-year hourly proxy (the 9:00–10:00 am New York bar as the range): 456 sessions, −$614 per ounce.
The sample of exact ORB sessions is small (about ten weeks), because free 5-minute data only goes back 60 days. But nothing in either dataset suggests the plain ORB has an edge on gold.
Getting the time right: 13:30 or 14:30 GMT?
The ORB is anchored to the US stock market open at 9:30 am New York time. In GMT/UTC that moves with US daylight saving time:
| Period | New York clock | GMT / UTC | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| US daylight time (2nd Sunday of March to 1st Sunday of November) | 9:30 am EDT | 13:30 | 21 Aug to 30 Oct 2026 |
| US standard time (rest of the year) | 9:30 am EST | 14:30 | From 1 November 2026 |
Europe changes its clocks on different dates, so for a week or two each spring and autumn the gap between London and New York is unusual. If you set your ORB by a fixed GMT time all year, half your ranges will start an hour early or late. Our gold market hours tool shows the New York open in your own time zone for any date.
In our code, every bar was converted to New York time with the US daylight saving rule. We checked the output: all 49 ranges in the 5-minute window started at 13:30 UTC (the whole window was daylight time). In the two-year hourly proxy, the range bar started at 13:00 UTC on 334 sessions and 14:00 UTC on 165, exactly as the clock changes require.
Exact rules
| Rule | Detail |
|---|---|
| Opening range | High and low of the 5-minute bars from 9:30 to 9:45 am New York time (15-minute ORB) or 9:30 to 10:00 (30-minute ORB) |
| Orders | Buy stop at the range high and sell stop at the range low; the first fill cancels the other |
| Entry window | Until 12:00 noon New York time |
| Stop | The opposite side of the range |
| Target | 2 x the range width (2R), or 1 x (1R) |
| Exit | Close at 16:00 New York time if neither is hit |
| Trades | One per day, weekdays only |
Hourly proxy (two years): with only hourly bars we cannot isolate 9:30 to 9:45, so we used the 9:00–10:00 am New York bar, which contains the open, as the range. Entries were allowed from 10:00 to noon and exits at 16:00. This is a different, slower version of the same idea, labelled as a proxy.
How we tested it
Data. COMEX gold futures (GC=F) 5-minute bars from 21 August to 30 October 2026 (49 complete New York sessions), and 1-hour bars from 30 October 2024 to 30 October 2026. Execution. Stop orders fill at the level, or at the open if price gaps through it. Inside the fill bar we assume the usual path (up bar: open, low, high, close; down bar: open, high, low, close) and only count stops or targets reached after the fill; if both could be hit, the stop counts. Cost. $0.30 per ounce per round trip. Results in US dollars per ounce, 1 ounce per trade.
The results
Exact ORB on 5-minute data (49 sessions)
| Version | Trades | Win rate | Avg per trade | Profit factor | Net | Max drawdown | Avg range width |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-min range, 2R | 49 | 36.7% | −$2.33 | 0.74 | −$114.10 | $212.50 | $15.17 |
| 15-min range, 1R | 49 | 55.1% | $0.00 | 1.00 | +$0.10 | $112.90 | $15.17 |
| 30-min range, 2R | 48 | 35.4% | −$4.35 | 0.57 | −$208.70 | $349.50 | $20.11 |
| 30-min range, 1R | 48 | 43.8% | −$1.83 | 0.80 | −$87.80 | $203.80 | $20.11 |
Split into halves, the 15-minute 2R version lost $173 in the first five weeks and made $24 in the second five. With about 24 trades per half, that is noise.
Hourly proxy, two years
| Version | Trades | Win rate | Avg per trade | Profit factor | Net | Year 1 | Year 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00–10:00 ET bar range, 2R | 456 | 44.5% | −$1.35 | 0.87 | −$614.30 | −$63.20 | −$551.10 |
Before costs the proxy lost $478; at $0.60 per ounce it lost $751.
What the results say, in plain English
- The 2R target was too ambitious. A $15 range means a $30 target, and gold often reversed back into the range before getting there. Only 10 of 49 trades in the 15-minute 2R version hit the target.
- 1R was break-even, not profitable. Taking profits at 1R lifted the win rate to 55% and the result to zero. That is the cost of doing business, not an edge.
- Wider ranges were worse. The 30-minute range was about a third wider, with bigger stops and a lower win rate.
- Two years of hourly data agreed. The proxy lost in both years, more in the volatile second year.
Why the New York ORB struggles on gold
The ORB was built for stock indices and individual shares, where the cash open concentrates the day’s first real trading. Gold is different: it has already traded through Asia and London, and the most important US event of the morning is usually the 8:30 am data release, an hour before the stock open. By 9:30 the big move may already have happened, and the first 15 minutes can be a reaction to stocks rather than a fresh gold move. Our New York session playbook covers the 8:30 data window and how gold usually behaves around the overlap with London.
When the ORB fails
- Range days. If gold has no catalyst, it breaks one side, then the other.
- Data mornings. After a big 8:30 move, the 9:30 range is often a pause before a retrace.
- Very wide ranges. A $30 opening range means a $30 stop. Skip or size down.
- Clock-change weeks. Mixing up 13:30 and 14:30 GMT puts the range in the wrong place.
Risk sizing
With the stop at the far side of a $15 range, risking $100:
- $100 / ($15.17 + $0.30) is about 6.5 ounces (0.06 lots).
- The worst losing run in the 15-minute 2R test was 7 trades: roughly $700 at that size.
Use the position size calculator every day, because the range width changes the stop every day.
Checklist before you trade the New York open
- Confirm the time of 9:30 am New York in your time zone every week the clocks change, in the US or in your own country.
- Mark the 8:30 move. If US data has already moved gold $30 or more, the opening range may be a pause rather than a launch.
- Measure the range width before placing orders. If it is much wider than usual, the stop and target are too; consider skipping.
- Decide your target in advance. 1R was break-even and 2R lost in our test; whatever you choose, keep it fixed for at least 30 sessions.
- Set a last entry time. Breaks after noon New York time had little room to run before the 16:00 exit.
- Watch the stock market. The 9:30 open is an equity event; on days when stocks gap sharply, gold’s first 15 minutes can be unusually erratic.
Test it yourself
Collect your platform’s 5-minute XAUUSD data across both daylight and standard time, and code the 9:30 New York anchor rather than a fixed GMT time. Test the 15 and 30-minute ranges with 1R and 2R targets, and add one filter at a time, for example only trading breaks in the direction of the 8:30 move. Our New York session lesson and breakout and retest lesson suggest filters worth testing. The strategies tested hub has the other 13 tests.
Practise it with other traders
Opening range trading is easy to automate and easy to fool yourself with. In the XAUUSD Global community, members who trade the New York session compare ranges, entries and time-zone setups every day. The first month is free, then $19.99 a month.
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the New York open for the gold opening range?
Most opening range traders use the US stock market open at 9:30 am New York time. That is 13:30 GMT/UTC while the US is on daylight saving time (from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November) and 14:30 GMT/UTC in winter. Gold futures themselves trade almost 24 hours, and US data comes out at 8:30 am New York time.
Does the New York opening range breakout work on gold?
Not in our tests. The 15-minute range with a 2R target lost $114 per ounce over 49 sessions; the 30-minute range lost $209 over 48. A 1R target on the 15-minute range broke even. A two-year hourly proxy lost $614 over 456 sessions.
Is the 15-minute or 30-minute opening range better for gold?
In our 5-minute test the 15-minute range did better than the 30-minute range at both targets. The 30-minute range averaged about $20 wide versus about $15, which made stops larger and 2R targets harder to reach before the 16:00 exit.
How did you handle the US daylight saving change in the test?
Every bar was converted to New York time using the US rule (DST from 2:00 am on the second Sunday of March to 2:00 am on the first Sunday of November). The 5-minute window (August to October 2026) was all daylight time, so every range started at 13:30 UTC. In the two-year hourly test, the range bar started at 13:00 UTC on 334 sessions and 14:00 UTC on 165.
Where should I put the stop on a gold opening range breakout?
The classic stop is the opposite side of the range, which is what we tested. With a 15-minute range averaging $15, that is a $15 risk per ounce before slippage.
What is a better alternative to the plain ORB on gold?
Many traders wait for the breakout to retest the range edge, or only take breaks in the direction of the overnight trend. We did not test those versions; our breakout-retest lesson explains the idea.
Sources and further reading
- CME Group — Gold futures overview — Contract specifications and trading hours for COMEX gold
- CFTC — Commitments of Traders — Weekly futures positioning, including gold
- Investor.gov — Stop order — How stop orders work, and their limits in fast markets
External sites are independent of XAUUSD Global. Check dates and data yourself.