Gold Week Ahead Oct 26–30, 2026: FOMC, PCE, ECB and BoJ

Start with the gold forecast for next week: it holds the live weekly pivots, the statistical band and the rule-based bias that this article refers to. What follows puts those numbers next to a calendar that is unusually crowded. Between Wednesday and Friday, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all announce decisions, and the US publishes Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation in between.

This is an outlook, not a forecast. It sets out what is scheduled, what markets expect, where the levels are and how gold has tended to respond to each type of surprise, using if/then language throughout.

Where gold starts the week

Gold had its worst week since June. Reuters reported that spot gold slipped below $4,000 on Friday October 23 for the first time since mid-July, with a session low of $3,975.23, and that December futures settled 1.3% lower at $4,007.90. Bullion lost about 4% on the week.

Our own COMEX data, last updated at 04:51 GMT on October 23, showed:

Gold is below all three averages and about 24% below its record daily settlement of $5,318.4 on January 29. Our article on why gold fell from $5,318 to $4,000 covers how it got here. The short version for this week: oil-driven inflation, a Fed that hiked in September and higher real yields. On Friday Brent rose above $117 a barrel, according to Kitco’s end-of-day report, so the inflation backdrop going into the meetings has not eased.

The calendar in six time zones

Europe moves its clocks back on Sunday October 25, while the US keeps summer time until November 1. For this one week, every New York-anchored event lands one hour earlier than usual in London, Frankfurt and anywhere that does not change its clocks. Times below already include that shift.

The Fed press conference follows 30 minutes after the statement, and the ECB press conference 30 minutes after its decision. Our gold market events page converts every time to your own clock automatically, and the gold market hours tool shows which session each event falls into.

What markets expect from each event

The Fed (Wednesday). The Fed raised rates on September 16 to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. On October 23 CME FedWatch showed a 92% chance of no change this week and about 78% odds of a December hike, according to Reuters. Reuters also reported that fed funds futures priced only about a 5% chance of a hike on Wednesday. With a hold close to fully priced, the reaction is more likely to come from the statement wording and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference than from the decision itself. Our 28 October FOMC preview goes through the Fed-day ranges and timing in detail, and the Fed day routine covers the process.

The Bank of Canada (Wednesday). In a Reuters poll taken October 21–23, 19 of 34 economists expected a 25 basis point hike to 2.50%. Canada’s inflation rose to 3.1% in September. A Canadian hike matters to gold mainly as another sign that central banks are tightening against oil-driven inflation.

GDP and PCE (Thursday). The Fed watches PCE inflation more closely than CPI. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year in BLS data, so the bar for a “soft” PCE print is high. A PCE reading below expectations would be the first piece of evidence after the meeting that could reduce December hike odds; a hot one could do the opposite. Our PCE and gold guide explains how the release usually moves XAUUSD.

The ECB (Thursday). A preview published on FXStreet on October 20 expects the ECB to keep its deposit rate at 2.50% and to deliver a final hike in December. The euro carries about 57.6% of the weight in the dollar index, so an ECB surprise can move gold through the dollar.

The Bank of Japan (Friday in Asia). Reuters sources expect a hold at 1.25%, with a December hike possible. A surprise would move the yen and global bond yields. Our guide to ECB and BoJ decisions shows how each outcome usually flows into gold.

Big Tech earnings add noise: Reuters noted that Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. After this week’s AI-led stock sell-off, a sharp move in equities could spill into gold through margin calls or risk sentiment.

The levels on the weekly map

These are mechanical levels from the forecast page, calculated from last week’s high ($4,211.2), low ($4,000.9) and provisional close ($4,020.4). Because December futures settled at $4,007.90, the final numbers may shift by a few dollars once the Friday bar is complete.

The forecast page’s rule-based bias label was Range: the close was below both the 20 and 50-day averages, but the last four weekly closes did not all fall. The typical weekly range over the last 12 weeks has been $203.5, and the 14-day ADR $69.2. If you are new to these levels, our guide to pivot points and the support and resistance guide explain how traders use them.

If/then scenarios for the week

If the Fed holds and sounds no more hawkish than expected, then gold’s reaction may be modest, and Thursday’s PCE becomes the bigger test. In that case the range between S1 ($3,943.8) and the pivot ($4,077.5) is the first area to watch, with $4,000 as the round number inside it.

If Warsh signals that December is not a done deal, then lower hike odds would usually ease real yields and the dollar. If price then holds above the pivot at $4,077.5, the band top at $4,122.2 and R1 at $4,154.1 are the next reference levels. A move back under the pivot would cancel that read.

If the Fed or PCE comes in hotter than expected, then higher real yields would usually weigh on gold. If price loses S1 ($3,943.8) and stays below it, the band bottom at $3,918.6 and S2 at $3,867.2 come into focus.

If the ECB or BoJ surprises, then watch the dollar index first. A stronger euro or yen weakens the dollar and tends to support gold; the reverse tends to weigh on it.

If oil headlines dominate, then the inflation channel may matter more than any central bank. Gold has fallen on days when oil rose this month, even when the dollar and yields eased.

None of these says where gold will end the week. They describe which levels come next if a condition is met.

Practical points for this week

• Know your clock. The one-week gap between European and US clock changes catches people out every year. Check the event times above or on the events page.
• Expect wider spreads around the releases. The FOMC statement, the press conference and the 12:30 GMT data on Thursday can all move gold by tens of dollars in minutes.
• Size from your stop, not your margin. If you widen stops for event volatility, cut the position so the money at risk stays the same. The position size calculator does the arithmetic.
• Read the daily context. Our why is gold moving today page and the XAUUSD analysis update through the week.

Educational content only, not financial advice. Prices are from COMEX gold futures and the sources named, and spot XAUUSD at your broker can differ by a few dollars.

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