The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 2:00 pm New York time (18:00 GMT), with the press conference 30 minutes later. For gold, it is the biggest scheduled event of the month, and it lands after a week in which XAUUSD lost ground quickly.
This preview sticks to what the data shows: where gold is, what the weekly levels are, how big the last two Fed-day ranges were, and the decision’s timing in your zone. It does not forecast the outcome. Instead, it sets out if/then scenarios so you can plan before the statement, not react to it. For the step-by-step routine on the day itself, read how to trade gold on Fed day.
Where gold stands going into the meeting
All prices below are COMEX gold futures from our data file, last updated 23 October 2026 at 04:51 UTC. They are delayed, the Friday bar was still in progress at that update, and spot XAUUSD at your broker can differ by a few dollars.
| Measure | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Last price in our data | $4,020.4 | 23 Oct, provisional |
| Last week’s range (19–23 Oct) | $4,000.9 – $4,211.2 | A $210.3 week |
| Change on the week | −$160.7 (−3.84%) | From a $4,181.1 prior weekly close |
| Biggest daily move | −$89.6 on Thu 22 Oct | Range that day: $127.5 |
| ATR(14) | $71.0 | Typical true range per day |
| 20-day average daily range | $75.5 | 60-day average: $94.6 |
| 20-day average | $4,155.9 | Price below it |
| 50-day average | $4,342.1 | Price below it |
| 200-day average | $4,533.0 | Price $512.6 below it |
Two things stand out. First, gold closed the week below its 20, 50 and 200-day averages, with the 20-day under the 50-day. That describes a market that has been losing ground; it does not say what happens next. Second, the recent daily range is lower than the 60-day average ($75.5 against $94.6), so the market had been calmer than in September even before Thursday’s drop. Fed days often break that kind of calm, at least for a few hours.
The background is covered on our news page: the Fed raised rates on 16 September to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, inflation data since then have been hot, and markets have been weighing whether more hikes follow. The Fed has been in its pre-meeting blackout period since 17 October, so there have been no Fed speeches to steer expectations in the final days.
The levels on the weekly map
These come from the gold forecast for next week, built from last week’s high, low and close. They are mechanical reference points, not targets or signals.
| Level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly R2 | $4,287.8 | Classic pivot |
| Weekly R1 | $4,154.1 | Close to the 20-day average ($4,155.9) |
| Top of the statistical band | $4,122.2 | Last close + half the 12-week typical range |
| Weekly pivot (P) | $4,077.5 | Middle of last week’s range |
| Last week’s low / $4,000 | $4,000.9 / $4,000.0 | Round number just below the low |
| Weekly S1 | $3,943.8 | Classic pivot |
| Bottom of the statistical band | $3,918.6 | Last close − half the 12-week typical range |
| Weekly S2 | $3,867.2 | Classic pivot |
Notice the clusters. $4,154–4,156 is where weekly R1 and the 20-day average meet, and $4,000 is both a round number and, within a dollar, last week’s low. Clusters like these are where many traders look for reactions, which is why they matter on a high-volatility day. The support and resistance lesson explains how to judge whether a level is worth trading.
Today’s daily levels
The daily pivots change every session. This table is rebuilt from the latest data each time the site updates:
Last price in our data: $4,007.9 (COMEX gold futures, updated 2026-10-24 06:18 UTC, delayed; pivots from the 22 Oct 2026 session). Gold is below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages.
| Level | Type | Price | Last price vs level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-day SMA | Average | $4,535.2 | -527.3 |
| 50-day SMA | Average | $4,350.1 | -342.2 |
| Prior week high | Swing | $4,242.3 | -234.4 |
| R2 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,214.7 | -206.8 |
| 20-day SMA | Average | $4,170.9 | -163.0 |
| R1 (classic pivot) | Resistance | $4,137.5 | -129.6 |
| Prior week low | Swing | $4,095.0 | -87.1 |
| Daily pivot | Pivot | $4,087.2 | -79.3 |
| 4,050 | Round number | $4,050.0 | -42.1 |
| S1 (classic pivot) | Support | $4,010.0 | -2.1 |
| 4,000 | Round number | $4,000.0 | +7.9 |
| S2 (classic pivot) | Support | $3,959.7 | +48.2 |
These are reference levels calculated from price data, not trade signals. The XAUUSD analysis page recalculates them every hour with Fibonacci pivots and ADR, and the XAUUSD technical analysis page adds RSI, MACD and moving-average signals.
What the last two Fed days did to gold’s range
Our data includes the daily bars for the last two decision days. Close-to-close changes on these days are noisy, so the cleaner comparison is the daily range (high minus low) against the 20-day average range before each meeting:
| Decision day | Outcome | Gold’s daily range | 20-day average range before | Range the next day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 29 Jul 2026 | Hold at 3.50–3.75%, three officials vote for a hike | $121.4 | $91.0 | $90.0 |
| Wed 16 Sep 2026 | Hike to 3.75–4.00% | $139.8 | $113.5 | $128.8 |
On both days the range was roughly a quarter to a third larger than the recent average (1.33 times in July, 1.23 times in September), and in September the following day was almost as wide. Two meetings are a tiny sample and say nothing about direction. What they do show is the practical point: on a Fed day, a stop sized for a normal day can be too tight, and a position sized for a normal day can be too big. With the current 20-day average at $75.5, a range in the same proportion would be around $93–100, but that is arithmetic, not a forecast.
When it happens in your time zone
The UK and Europe leave summer time on 25 October; the US does not change until 1 November. For that one week, London and New York are only four hours apart, so the decision lands an hour earlier than usual in London.
| Event | New York | GMT / London | Dubai | India (IST) | Singapore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC statement | Wed 14:00 | 18:00 | 22:00 | 23:30 | Thu 02:00 |
| Press conference | Wed 14:30 | 18:30 | 22:30 | Thu 00:00 | Thu 02:30 |
| US Q3 GDP and September PCE | Thu 08:30 | 12:30 | 16:30 | 18:00 | 20:30 |
| ECB decision | Thu 09:15 | 13:15 | 17:15 | 18:45 | 21:15 |
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar and the events hub, which converts every date to your own clock. The gold market hours tool shows which session will be open.
Thursday matters too. The September PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, arrives the morning after the decision. If it confirms the hot CPI and PPI readings, it can reinforce a hawkish message; if it is softer, it can undo part of Wednesday’s move. Read gold and PCE inflation for why, and how ECB and BoJ decisions move gold for Thursday’s second event.
How a Fed decision moves gold
Gold pays no interest, so it reacts to anything that changes the expected path of real yields (interest rates after inflation) and the US dollar. The decision itself is only part of it. Markets react to the gap between what they expected and what they got, across four pieces:
- The rate decision. A move nobody expected is the biggest possible surprise. A widely expected decision often moves gold less than people think.
- The statement wording. Small changes in how the Fed describes inflation, growth and “further firming” can shift expectations for December.
- The vote. Dissents, like the three hike votes in July, tell markets how divided the committee is.
- The press conference. The Chair’s answers often matter more than the statement. It is common for gold to move one way at 2:00 pm and the other way by 3:00 pm.
To see what markets are pricing before the meeting, use CME FedWatch; our news page recorded December hike odds of about 89% on 22 October. For the long view of how gold has behaved in hiking cycles, read does gold go up when the Fed raises rates.
If/then scenarios
Fed days bring some of the widest spreads and fastest moves of the month. Nothing below is a trade recommendation, and a well-planned trade can still lose.
None of these is a prediction. They describe how the usual transmission channels would work in each case, so you can decide in advance what you would do.
If the Fed holds and sounds no more hawkish than expected, the pressure from rate expectations could ease. Watch whether yields and the dollar dip. If they do, the first resistance cluster on the weekly map is the pivot at $4,077.5, then $4,122–4,156, where the top of the statistical band, weekly R1 and the 20-day average sit.
If the Fed holds but signals that another hike is likely, markets get a “hawkish hold”. If yields and the dollar firm, gold would be trading against that headwind, and $4,000 / last week’s $4,000.9 low becomes the first area to watch, then weekly S1 at $3,943.8 and the bottom of the band at $3,918.6.
If the Fed hikes, that would be a bigger surprise relative to recent pricing for October. The September hike day produced a $139.8 range, so expect very wide spreads and fast moves in both directions before the market settles.
If the reaction fades by the end of the press conference, the decision may have been fully priced. Then Thursday’s PCE report becomes the next test.
Planning the day
- Decide your plan before 2:00 pm New York time. Flat, smaller size, or wait for the press conference to end: pick one in advance and write it down.
- Size from the stop, not the account. If your stop needs to be wider on a Fed day, the position must be smaller. The position size calculator does the maths.
- Respect the spread. Spreads usually widen in the minutes around the statement and can jump past stops. The gold volatility page shows how far gold moves in a normal hour.
- Watch the channels, not just the candle. If gold moves without yields or the dollar moving, the move may be positioning rather than the news. The real yields and dollar tracker charts both.
- Check the levels again on the day. The XAUUSD analysis page recalculates pivots and the average daily range every hour, and why is gold moving today explains the session’s move as it happens.
Sources and further reading
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars and statements
- Gold market events: FOMC, CPI, NFP and everything that moves gold
- Gold forecast for next week: levels, bias and events
- Gold Week Ahead: Fed decision week (26–30 October)
Prices on this page are COMEX gold futures from public data and are delayed; spot XAUUSD at your broker will differ slightly.
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading gold with leverage carries a high risk of loss.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the October 2026 FOMC decision?
The statement is due on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 2:00 pm New York time, which is 18:00 GMT, 18:00 in London (the UK is on winter time from 25 October), 22:00 in Dubai, 23:30 in India and 02:00 on Thursday in Singapore. The press conference starts 30 minutes later. Check the Federal Reserve’s calendar in case anything changes.
Will gold go up or down after the Fed meeting?
Nobody can know in advance, and this page does not try to guess. Gold tends to react to the surprise against what markets expect, through real yields and the dollar. A decision or message that is more hawkish than expected usually weighs on gold for a while; a more dovish one usually helps it. The first move is often reversed or extended during the press conference.
How much does gold move on a Fed day?
It varies. In our COMEX gold futures data, the daily range was $121.4 on 29 July 2026 and $139.8 on 16 September 2026, both larger than the 20-day average range before each meeting ($91.0 and $113.5). Going into this meeting the 20-day average range is $75.5. Past ranges do not predict the next one.
What gold levels matter going into the Fed decision?
On the weekly map built from last week’s high, low and close, the pivot is $4,077.5, with R1 at $4,154.1 and S1 at $3,943.8. The round number $4,000 sits just under last week’s low of $4,000.9, and the statistical band for the week runs from $3,918.6 to $4,122.2. These are reference levels, not targets.
Should I trade gold during the FOMC announcement?
Many traders choose not to. Spreads widen around 2:00 pm New York time, price can jump past stops, and the first move often reverses during the press conference. If you do trade, decide beforehand whether you will be flat, reduce size or wait for the press conference to finish, and size from your stop with the position size calculator.