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Daily gold digest

Gold News, 26 October 2026: 7 stories moving XAUUSD

Gold reopens for Fed week after its first close below $4,000 since mid-July, with weekend headlines from the Gulf keeping oil risk high. Analysts are watching the July low near $3,943, while futures still point to a hold on Wednesday and a hike in December.

Gold heads into Fed week under $4,000 as Gulf attacks run through the weekend

01
Analysis

Bank of America flags the July low near $3,943 as gold's key test

In a TheStreet piece published on Saturday, Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana named gold’s July low of $3,943 as the level that matters most: holding it could leave a double bottom, while a break could open the way toward $3,886 and later $3,700. Gold is now about 29% below its January peak of $5,595 after ending Friday near $3,995.80. UBS still sees $5,400 by September 2027, and Goldman Sachs keeps $5,400 for the end of 2027 while flagging downside risk to its $4,650 December forecast.

Why it matters for gold:

These are fresh views written after Friday’s close, and they show why the July low is the line many desks are watching this week. Our glossary explains what a double bottom is, and our 2027 gold forecast round-up compares the bank targets.

Source: TheStreet (via Yahoo Finance)

02
Fed

Yardeni says the Fed should hike on Wednesday but expects it to wait because of the midterms

Yardeni Research’s week-ahead note puts CME FedWatch odds at about 9% for a hike on Wednesday and 84% for December, a little above the roughly 80% seen on Friday. Fed funds futures imply about 2.7 hikes over the next 12 months and 1.4 over six. Ed Yardeni argues the committee ought to raise rates now but will hold because the November 3 midterm elections are so close.

Why it matters for gold:

With a hold almost fully priced, gold is more likely to react to how hawkish Chair Warsh sounds about December than to the decision itself. Our 28 October FOMC preview covers timing and levels, and the glossary explains hawkish and dovish signals.

Source: Yardeni QuickTakes

03
Inflation

Cleveland Fed nowcast points to September PCE inflation of 3.6%, core 3.1%

The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, cited by Yardeni Research, sees the September PCE price index up 3.6% from a year earlier and core PCE up 3.1%, after 3.0% core in August. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was tracking third-quarter growth at 3.5% as of October 20, and weekly jobless claims of 194,000 sit near their lowest since the late 1960s. PCE and the first Q3 GDP estimate both land on Thursday, the day after the Fed.

Why it matters for gold:

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so a print at or above the nowcast would support December hike bets and keep real yields high, a headwind for gold. Our guide to PCE and XAUUSD explains the release, and the real yields and dollar tool tracks the link.

Source: Yardeni QuickTakes

04
Yields

The Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes on Monday, opening a heavy supply week

The US Treasury’s auction schedule puts $69 billion of 2-year notes on Monday, $70 billion of 5-year notes on Tuesday, a $30 billion 2-year floating-rate note on Wednesday, the day of the Fed decision, and $44 billion of 7-year notes on Thursday, the same day as PCE. Treasury set out these October sizes in its quarterly refunding statement and said it expects to keep coupon auction sizes unchanged for at least the next several quarters. All four settle on November 2.

Why it matters for gold:

Weak demand at an auction can push yields up quickly, and the 2-year yield is the part of the curve most tied to Fed expectations, which in turn weigh on gold. Our explainer on real yields, TIPS and gold shows why, and the gold market events page lists this week’s times in your zone.

Source: US Treasury

05
Oil

Iran says two supertankers carrying over 4.5 million barrels hit mines near Hormuz

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two supertankers struck naval mines on Friday while using an unauthorised southern route, leaving both disabled and abandoned by their crews, Gulf News reported; together they carried more than 4.5 million barrels of crude. On Saturday Iran said US military ships would not be allowed into the Gulf under any circumstances. Regional and European foreign ministers met in Istanbul, where Egypt urged de-escalation and US-Iran talks.

Why it matters for gold:

This adds something new to last week’s tanker attacks: mines rather than missiles, and a direct warning to the US Navy. Higher oil has hurt gold this year by lifting inflation and rate expectations; our guide to gold and oil prices explains the link, and the glossary covers the weekend gap such news can cause at the open.

Source: Gulf News

06
Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia intercepts a Sunday barrage of Houthi missiles and drones

Saudi air defences intercepted 10 ballistic missiles aimed at the south, one ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, a drone over the capital and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait on Sunday, The National reported. Debris from missiles intercepted on Saturday fell around Makkah, Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh, and two people were hurt by shrapnel. Riyadh’s main airport reopened two terminals on Sunday, about two weeks after a Houthi strike there killed 13 people.

Why it matters for gold:

Fresh attacks on the world’s largest oil exporter keep supply risk alive as markets reopen, which can lift gold on fear but also push oil and yields higher. The glossary explains geopolitical risk and the safe-haven trade.

Source: The National

07
Physical demand

Indian 24-carat gold eases to about ₹1.43 lakh at the weekend, with Dhanteras under two weeks away

Sunday’s rates put 24-carat gold at ₹14,258 per gram (₹1,42,580 per 10 grams) and 22-carat at ₹13,070 per gram in most big cities, with Delhi slightly higher at ₹14,273, The Sunday Guardian reported. The same outlet had quoted 24-carat at ₹14,607 per gram on October 22, so the weekend rate is about ₹349 per gram lower. Silver was unchanged at ₹2,20,000 per kg.

Why it matters for gold:

Dhanteras falls on Friday, November 6 and Diwali on November 8, so this week’s Fed and PCE moves will shape the price festival buyers see. Our India gold price page shows the local rate, and the Dhanteras and Diwali guide explains how the festival affects demand.

Source: The Sunday Guardian

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Summaries are written by XAUUSD Global from the linked sources. Educational content only, not financial advice.