XAUUSD analysis, 1 October 2026: Gold closes below the 20-day average after a $53 range
Daily levels for Thursday 1 October 2026: pivots from the previous session, moving averages, average daily range and what the session did with them. Education, not signals.
The read into the session
Gold came into the session at $4,186.7 (the 30 Sep 2026 close), below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages, and below the daily pivot at $4,205.3. The nearest pivot levels were P at $4,205.3 above and S1 at $4,159.6 below. If price holds above S1, the P level is the next one traders watch; if it loses S1, attention moves to the level under it. The market came into the session after 2 consecutive up days. The 14-day average range was $92.4 and the nearest round numbers $4,250 and $4,200.
ADR(14) $92.4 · ADR(20) $99.7 · 10-day realised volatility 20.1% annualised
Daily pivots from 30 Sep 2026 H $4,251.1 · L $4,178.2 · C $4,186.7
| Pivot | Classic | Fibonacci | Close vs classic | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | $4,305.4 | $4,278.2 | -103.1 | -2.39% |
| R2 | $4,278.2 | $4,250.4 | -75.9 | -1.77% |
| R1 | $4,232.5 | $4,233.2 | -30.2 | -0.71% |
| P | $4,205.3 | $4,205.3 | -3.0 | -0.07% |
| S1 | $4,159.6 | $4,177.5 | +42.7 | +1.03% |
| S2 | $4,132.4 | $4,160.3 | +69.9 | +1.69% |
| S3 | $4,086.7 | $4,132.4 | +115.6 | +2.83% |
Moving averages, swing levels and round numbers
| Level | Price | Close vs level | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day SMA | $4,363.8 | -161.5 | -3.70% |
| 50-day SMA | $4,363.0 | -160.7 | -3.68% |
| 200-day SMA | $4,554.9 | -352.6 | -7.74% |
| 52-week high 29 Jan 2026 | $5,586.2 | -1,383.9 | -24.77% |
| 52-week low 28 Oct 2025 | $3,901.3 | +301.0 | +7.72% |
| Prior week high | $4,422.1 | -219.8 | -4.97% |
| Prior week low | $4,278.3 | -76.0 | -1.78% |
| Prior week close | $4,321.2 | -118.9 | -2.75% |
| Prior month high Sep 2026 | $4,558.5 | -356.2 | -7.81% |
| Prior month low Sep 2026 | $4,143.1 | +59.2 | +1.43% |
| Round number above | $4,250.0 | -47.7 | -1.12% |
| Round number below | $4,200.0 | +2.3 | +0.05% |
Education, not signals. Levels are calculated from COMEX gold futures daily data, so they can differ from your broker's XAUUSD quote by a few dollars. Nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation, a target or a forecast. Risk disclaimer.
What happened
Gold opened at $4,190.1, traded between $4,169.4 and $4,222.8 (a $53.4 range, 58% of ADR(14)) and closed at $4,202.3, +15.6 (+0.37%) on the day. The session touched P, and the close was below the daily pivot ($4,205.3) and below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages that were on the chart at the open. It was a lower low with narrow range versus the 14-day average. That made 3 up closes in a row.
Frequently asked questions
What was the daily pivot for gold on 1 October 2026?
The classic pivot was $4,205.3, with R1 at $4,232.5, R2 at $4,278.2, S1 at $4,159.6 and S2 at $4,132.4, all calculated from the 30 Sep 2026 high ($4,251.1), low ($4,178.2) and close ($4,186.7). During the session price touched P.
How big was gold's range on 1 October 2026 compared with its average?
Gold traded between $4,169.4 and $4,222.8, a $53.4 range, which was 58% of the 14-day average daily range of $92.4 (narrow range). The 20-day ADR was $99.7 and 10-day realised volatility was 20.1% annualised.
Where did gold close relative to its moving averages on 1 October 2026?
Gold closed at $4,202.3, below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages. The 20-day SMA was $4,363.8, the 50-day $4,363.0 and the 200-day $4,554.9, measured from the closes before that session. This is a description of where price sat, not a signal.
Generated automatically from COMEX gold futures daily data. Education, not signals. Not financial advice. Levels differ slightly between brokers and data feeds. See our risk disclaimer.